- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmy.ml
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Do they think Putin’s replacement would be a chill guy? Last time someone other than Putin was president, it was fucking Medvedev.
In movies and video games, when you kill the boss, you win. This is also how things work in real life.
Exactly, I’ve asked libs this very question many times. It’s pretty clear that Putin is a moderate in Russia, and whoever replaces him will be a lot more hardline. The main criticism of Putin in Russia right now is that he’s being to soft dealing with the west.
You point out exactly why it would be a good idea for the West to kill Putin. Putin represents an extremely effective moderating force on Russian politics since he became President and especially since he imprisoned Khodorovsky. Putin presided over and enforced a merger of “legal” and “criminal” capital in Russia. It’s important to note that in reality these are practically distinctions without difference post-USSR, they could more realistically be called de jure and de facto capital.
If Putin is out of the picture the Russian oligarchy can declare a 90’s style free for all on each other once again to figure out who the next guy who can stitch together capitalist power is. In the West these power structures are much more diffuse (but are becoming less and less diffuse) because the governments are “fairer” (read capital class solidarity) kleptocracies and the entire legal systems exist to prevent the nobility from declaring war on each other.
While Putin’s replacement may be much more of a hardliner, it’s unlikely that they would be more effective at administering the Russian capitalist state and managing it’s power constituencies than Putin. There’s a reasonable argument to be made that if Putin dies the SMO collapses by way of lack of political will, infighting, and opportunism within the Russian oligarchy. Everyone forgets just how unpopular the SMO was among the elites and the commoners until the state put the consent factories into overdrive.
To get SMO working, Putin broke one of the most durable Russian liberal constituencies, babushka’s with dead sons. War is perennially incredibly unpopular in Russia, and it’s driven entirely by babushkas who aren’t afraid to see Russian jails and aren’t afraid to loudly shame every single man involved in their arrest on traditionalist and gender grounds. The actual pro-SMO censor laws for that reason alone work on egregious fines that effectively silence pensioners.
This contingent is also essentially everywhere in the former USSR, but they’re often extremely pliable if not through political chicanery through outright consequences for their living situations. It’s a political contingent that is difficult to understand in the West because their typical political positions are so heterodox by Western understandings.
Lastly I think after Putin reached critical mass for the SMO in mid-2023, it’s been difficult to tell who is actually a true believer in the hardline stuff and who is playing the part. Medvedev doing Zhirnovsky style posting is a bit out of character based on prior history. He literally gave back Gori (large industrial city) and Poti (warm water port) in 2008. They held several key cities past cease fire. So given how he did South Ossetia, I would peg Medvedev would have wrapped things up by now to focus on other things because they have already annexed Crimea + DNR + LNR + Kherson and Luhansk. Compared to Georgia, the Russian state did not need the full court press to sharpen the ideological lines between Russia and Georgia simply because Russians did not care as much. Ukraine is a different story because West of Moscow you will find many people who have family living between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Caucuses are culturally different and aren’t as intermixed between Russia (there’s something like 100k Georgians in RF by the official census mostly in Moscow), so there was no good feelings, cultural similarity and familial bonds to break. More people were arrested / detained for anti-SMO protests than showed up to the largest anti-Georgian war in Russia. I might even be so bold as to claim that the total number of anti-Georgian war protestors in Russia was realistically somewhere below ~2k.
This isn’t to say Putin dies and the next day the SMO falls apart. It would be a real test of the RF’s stablity if they can successfully prosecute the SMO and align on new leadership without things failing. Either way, it’s a bit reflexive to assert that Putin is not a keystone to stability of this whole thing.
You’re falling for the great man theory here. Putin doesn’t run Russia single handedly, and there is a whole political system that exists to preserve the status quo. If Putin was out of the picture, the most likely scenario is that somebody like Medvedev would take over. The idea that pro western oligarchs would swoop in has no basis in reality.
While Putin’s replacement may be much more of a hardliner, it’s unlikely that they would be more effective at administering the Russian capitalist state and managing it’s power constituencies than Putin. There’s a reasonable argument to be made that if Putin dies the SMO collapses by way of lack of political will, infighting, and opportunism within the Russian oligarchy.
I completely disagree with this assessment. Putin is a part of the state machine, and while he’s an effective leader, he’s hardly the linchpin of Russian political system.
Everyone forgets just how unpopular the SMO was among the elites and the commoners until the state put the consent factories into overdrive.
The economic situation has drastically changed in Russia since the start of the war, and dominant business interests are now largely domestic or tired to BRICS economically. The trade with the west collapsed at the start of the war, and that forced businesses to adapt and redirect their trade in response. There’s no going back to the status quo before the war. I highly urge you to watch the following analysis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm7_6LCkvQE
To get SMO working, Putin broke one of the most durable Russian liberal constituencies, babushka’s with dead sons. War is perennially incredibly unpopular in Russia, and it’s driven entirely by babushkas who aren’t afraid to see Russian jails and aren’t afraid to loudly shame every single man involved in their arrest on traditionalist and gender grounds. The actual pro-SMO censor laws for that reason alone work on egregious fines that effectively silence pensioners.
The war is actually very popular in Russia, and the main criticism of Putin is that he’s not pursuing it aggressively enough. Everyone in Russia now understands the sheer hate the west has for Russians, and they understand that this is a war against the west. Everybody in Russia still remembers the 90s and how the west fucked Russia over during that time. There’s no love lost there.
Lastly I think after Putin reached critical mass for the SMO in mid-2023, it’s been difficult to tell who is actually a true believer in the hardline stuff and who is playing the part. Medvedev doing Zhirnovsky style posting is a bit out of character based on prior history. He literally gave back Gori (large industrial city) and Poti (warm water port) in 2008, so given how he did South Ossetia, I would peg Medvedev would have wrapped things up by now to focus on other things because they have already annexed Crimea + DNR + LNR + Kherson and Luhansk.
This would obviously be impossible to do politically now. Russia is winning the war, and most people in Russia understand that the west lost. To stop the war now without getting all the objectives complete would be a complete non starter.
Either way, it’s a bit reflexive to assert that Putin is not a keystone to stability of this whole thing.
There’s literally no evidence to suggest that he is.
This would obviously be impossible to do politically now. Russia is winning the war, and most people in Russia understand that the west lost. To stop the war now without getting all the objectives complete would be a complete non starter.
Again when comparing with the Georgio-Russian war, the objectives are roughly the same. “Denazification” isn’t real, it’s just something to sell the war to people who would be more hesitant about it. It’s the same style rhetoric that Israel uses about Hamas.
This war started out entirely like the Georgio-Russian war except the decapitation strike failed in Ukraine where it succeeded in Georgia. At this point it’s not about “war goals” because they would have settled on much smaller war goals had they succeeded in Ukraine, just like they did in Georgia. At this point it’s about rubbing people’s noses in it because the RF’s base has caught up to the consent manufacture post-2023. They annexed a NATO buffer larger than the entire state of Georgia.
Furthermore there’s evidence that shows that Georgia was a bit of a failure in regarding to the war goals. Lavrov quietly admitted in 2019 that if Georgia enters NATO, Russia would not start a war. That idea, that they need a “real buffer” vs what they did in Georgia, is really the only specific geopolitical reason they have to continue the SMO. However that statement itself is likely in response a “thing that would never happen” since there is a strong anti-NATO contingent in Georgian government, and previous presidents have been unwilling to join NATO without regaining control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
What “real buffer” means is often whatever you can get. It’s obvious why they’re holding out for more, but the SMO war goals are already successful if you’re looking at prior art. 35,000 sq mi of annexed territory between 2014 and 2025, vs like ~5k in Georgia.
Again when comparing with the Georgio-Russian war, the objectives are roughly the same. “Denazification” isn’t real, it’s just something to sell the war to people who would be more hesitant about it. It’s the same style rhetoric that Israel uses about Hamas.
Denazification is very real, as is the repression of Russian speakers in Ukraine. Not only that, but plenty of people in Russia have family ties with eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, your comparisons with Georgia are superficial to the point of being laughable. You clearly lack any actual understanding of the root causes, and I would encourage you to spend a bit of time actually learning about them.
Furthermore it shows that Georgia was a bit of a failure in regarding to the war goals. Lavrov quietly admitted in 2019 that if Georgia enters NATO, Russia would not start a war. That is really the only specific geopolitical reason they have to continue the SMO.
Georgia does not carry nearly the same relevance for Russia as Ukraine does, and anybody who knows even a tiny bit of history would understand why. Russia has been invaded via Ukraine multiple times in the past. Having NATO build up military infrastructure in Ukraine is a red line for Russia.
I would encourage you to spend a bit of time actually learning about the subject instead of wasting time debating it out of ignorance.
Yeah I think we’re done here considering the amount of times you’ve made up arguments that you thought I was arguing and then responded to those. This is just egregious here:
Georgia does not carry nearly the same relevance for Russia as Ukraine does … I would encourage you to spend a bit of time actually learning about the subject instead of wasting time debating it out of ignorance.
Yeah I literally said this multiple times, in multiple ways with different forms of evidence. You have literally just been ignoring it.
Compared to Georgia, the Russian state did not need the full court press to sharpen the ideological lines between Russia and Georgia simply because Russians did not care as much. Ukraine is a different story because West of Moscow you will find many people who have family living between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Caucuses are culturally different and aren’t as intermixed between Russia (there’s something like 100k Georgians in RF by the official census mostly in Moscow), so there was no good feelings, cultural similarity and familial bonds to break.
It’s incredibly funny for you to tell me to “do my own research” when the Georgio-Russian war was literally done out of the same big bullet points:
- Protecting Russian speaking minority.
- NATO buffer zone.
This has been admitted multiple times by multiple members of Russian government both pre and post war. In fact if you knew anything about the Georgio-Russian war you’d know that the cause of it was actually NATO escalation when Poland proposed extending Georgia a accelerated MAP in 2008 during the separatist crisis but before any actual invasion. Meanwhile the NATO MAP in 2008 Ukraine which was requested by Ukraine was quashed by Russian influence (which is ultimately what is quashing NATO MAP plans in Georgia to this day). If anything the escalation from 2014 to SMO looks more like them being butt hurt about losing Maidan so badly. The cultural war goals in the SMO are the same type of shit they said during Chechnya about Muslims. In Chechnya they ended up allying with the Kadyrovs one of the “Islamist” “terrorist” “tribes” they were denouncing.
Either way this is no longer productive and I’m disengaging. If we’re giving each other debater advice, I suggest next time you argue against my actual argument (removing Putin just like removing any head of state in reality creates a power vacuum, and in Russia that power vacuum is uniquely sizable because Putin’s real constituency is an oligarchy that agreed to his leadership as a compromise between all of them) not an adjacent argument that you’ve constructed that you find to be an easier target. ☮
I love how you claim that basic facts of the situation are “made up” arguments while trying to create some sort of equivalence between the situation in Ukraine and Georgia. Bye.
You’re falling for the great man theory here. Putin doesn’t run Russia single handedly, and there is a whole political system that exists to preserve the status quo. If Putin was out of the picture, the most likely scenario is that somebody like Medvedev would take over. The idea that pro western oligarchs would swoop in has no basis in reality.
This is not a great man theory (Putin’s actual skill is he makes consensus because he knows when to collaborate, when to mislead, and when to cut out in regards to various factions/interests), and this not about simplistic pro vs anti Western oligarchs in Russia. You are making the assumption that the elites gave a shit about this beyond NATO expansion. It has really only been the security state aligned people in Russia that have really been giving a shit about this. Derepaska is a perfect example. He has been a Putin loyalist all his life and he was vocally anti-SMO in 2022, but he shut the fuck up mid-2023. Compare that with Tinkov who went full lib brain on it and renounced his citizenship. There are no more Tinkovs in Russia. Fridman is an other good example, he was anti-SMO in 2022, arrested in London, and then shut the fuck up as soon as he got back to Russia in 2023. The anti-SMO view inside Russia esp. among elites isn’t majority pro-West, it’s “this is fake and a waste of resources”.
The rest of your argumentation is based in 2 main misunderstandings:
- The popularity of the war after mid-2023 was the popularity of the war from 2022 to mid-2023.
- You seem to believe that my argument is the main tension in the Russian government is between pro and anti Western interests, which was never my point and not a point I actually made.
You’re making the assumption that the elites are imbeciles who do not understand the current relationship with the west. I’m making the assumption that the elites are rational actors who can see how poorly trade with the west worked since the 90s, and who see that there are plenty of opportunities outside the west where there is possibility of much more stable long term relationships. BRICS is now a bigger economic bloc than the G7.
What the war exposed is how little the west has to offer economically, and that you can live without doing much direct trade with the west at all. Furthermore, new business niches opened up as a result of western business pulling out, and those were filled by domestic companies. The people who own these businesses have a strong incentive to continue current policies.
Both the political and business environment changed significantly since the start of the war. Hence why it’s nonsensical to make analysis based on prewar status quo.
The popularity of the war after mid-2023 was the popularity of the war from 2022 to mid-2023.
Every poll from Russia shows that majority of people support the war and want to end it on Russian terms. Your misunderstanding appears to stem from lack of knowledge of public opinion in Russia.
You seem to believe that my argument is the main tension in the Russian government is between pro and anti Western interests, which was never my point and not a point I actually made
What I’m explaining to you is that pro western contingent in Russia has effectively collapsed both politically and economically since the start of the war.
You’re making the assumption that the elites are imbeciles who do not understand the current relationship with the west. I’m making the assumption that the elites are rational actors who can see how poorly trade with the west worked since the 90s, and who see that there are plenty of opportunities outside the west where there is possibility of much more stable long term relationships. BRICS is now a bigger economic bloc than the G7.
This is a spreadsheet argument, not a bourgeoisie freedom argument. I agree that the Russian oligarchy has roughly replaced Western trade. The Russian oligarchy has not replaced durable Western hedging. There’s a reason that every Eastern oligarch stashes their money in the West. Their best bet right now is preventing Cyprus from joining the EU or at least preventing the agreement for Cyprus joining the EU leading to their citizenship getting flushed. The only other option at laundering their money and freedom has been Israel which hasn’t been stable. The reality is that Eastern Oligarchs know they operate below their governments unlike Western ones. Their personal risk management includes a large portion of hedging against their own political situation.
What the war exposed is how little the west has to offer economically, and that you can live without doing much direct trade with the west at all. Furthermore, new business niches opened up as a result of western business pulling out, and those were filled by domestic companies. The people who own these businesses have a strong incentive to continue current policies.
The business niches that opened up are floated by the government and government connected people. The reality is that Russian consumption is linked to Western companies. You cannot reasonably hope to live a middle class life in Moscow without either being politically connected or working for a Western company as many Russians do. It’s a property crisis and a demography crisis rolled into one. As the Soviet union folks who never left their homes die and their children sell them off for those millions in USD Moscow property values, there’s not going to be a comparable economic engine that allows for the middle class consumption to keep the capitalist process on the rails. The SMO has cut Russian consumer sentiment in half.
Both the political and business environment changed significantly since the start of the war. Hence why it’s nonsensical to make analysis based on prewar status quo.
I’m literally not, you’re saying I am.
Every poll from Russia shows that majority of people support the war and want to end it on Russian terms. Your misunderstanding appears to stem from lack of knowledge of public opinion in Russia.
This is silly. Putin’s approval rating never dips below 59. Levada Center which was the most reputable pollster has said it doesn’t believe it’s own numbers. Levada disinvested it’s meager 3% foreign investment in 2013 to remove the stink of the foreign agent law. The MoJ explicitly classified it as a foreign agent in 2016 after it’s polls showed a lack of support for UR. Public opinion polling means very little in Russia. There is broad support for the war in public sure, but going on public polling in Russia would get you laughed at by Russians.
What I’m explaining to you is that pro western contingent in Russia has effectively collapsed both politically and economically since the start of the war.
I’ve literally agreed with this multiple times esp in regards to Tinkov and the anti-SMO view.
Good news is that Putin is old and he’s not going to be in power for much longer. So, we will see who is right soon enough.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
What is Medvedev like?
Destroyed the entire Russian aviation sector just to lick Obama’s boots by promising to buy Boeing planes from America.
Refused to veto NATO invasion of Libya at the UNSC (Resolution 1973), despite Putin’s plea. The first known public spat between Putin and Medvedev.
Boeing
I bet he has buyer’s remorse.
I wasn’t politically aware when he was president, but he has been very outspoken since the SMO, and very hardline about it. He’s the guy drawing the funny maps where Ukraine doesn’t exist/is the size of Rhode Island.
Honestly I think it’s an act. Maybe he thinks that way but his role is to be the unreasonable, mad attack dog snarling at the west and threatening them with a worse time which makes Putin look reasonable and illustrates the possibility of someone worse. Maybe he’s gotten angrier and harder edged since he was in power after all the issues and betrayals but I wouldn’t count on it necessarily.
They need to stop Putin him in danger like that
GOOD post
Yeah let’s do it again from the right this time. C’mon go again!
Honestly if he gets taken out by something like that, then gg, skill issue, DESERVED
History is not kind to such naked dumbassery
Eh, Russia isn’t even trying to kill Zelensky. They actually told him they weren’t going to target him.
Surprising. Putin ought to know the TrueAnon rules.
you couldn’t pay me to get in a helicopter at this point
Yea, but it hits a bit different when your (former) country makes shit like this:
Pure embodiment of Brutalism.
Why that helicopter got boobs?
Somewhere in here there’s an attack helicopter joke, but I can’t land it
Superior Soviet engineering
A Hind-D?! What’s a Russian gunship doing here?!
I might be willing to break the no helicopter rule and risk it all if I had the opportunity to ride in a Hind
Flying pigs!
Makes you wonder what kind of cool modifiations the helicopter has
He wore a smart suit when he visited with… While he visited the nuclear plant he wore olive green military fatigues…
What is the obssession with what clothes Putin is wearing when he goes places? Goddamn weirdo ass brits.
can’t talk about material conditions or historical context so the focus winds up being on outfits and armchair psychoanalysis
Because they’re already doing this with zelensky, so why not for the other guy?
co.uk domain, they basically see him as royalty and must fawn over him, it’s in their nature
There were helicopters in Mission Impossible and I thought about this.
Ah darn. I guess we’re not bathing in nuclear fire today.
Armageddon will have to wait for another day.
The end of the war is in sight and some people very much do not want it to end.
I know international law is fake but would Putin’s helicopter be a legal target?
Putin is the commander-in-chief of the Russian military, so yes.
I think he and Zelensky have an unwritten agreement not to target each other though.
It’s not that they have an unwritten agreement, but more of a fact that these kinds of political assassinations open up a whole can of worms. From Russian perspective there’s little value in removing Zelensky since he’d just be replaced with another puppet like Zaluzhny who might even end up being more competent.
It’s not that they have an unwritten agreement, but more of a fact that these kinds of political assassinations open up a whole can of worms.
Idk it’s been working fine for Israeli.
Difference is that Israel is doing that in Iran, and if Iran responded in kind then it would provide the excuse for the US to start a war. If Israel tried doing assassinations in Russia, you can bet Russia would respond in kind.
We’ll see about that in the coming days I guess
“it was just a prank bro” 
The agreement is purely one sided. Putin could take out Zelensky any time he wanted. He doesn’t because there is nothing to be gained, Zelensky is a joke, a clown. The same doesn’t apply the other way. The Kiev Nazis absolutely would kill Putin if they could. They are death cult lunatics who are just itching to trigger a nuclear war if it means “sticking it to the Russians”.
Putin doesnt need to kill zelensky, that man is a destined for a shallow ditch anyway, in fact if he would die then ukraine would be run by azov themselves and that would mean that the entire ukraine has to be occupied.
