It’s the intent that matters. Regardless which shit stain got into power, there’s continuation of policy at play.

not much that comes out from US regime can be taken too seriously right now

The Gulf states bet the farm on the idea that the US would provide a security umbrella for them, and now they’re finding out that US can’t even protect their own assets in the region. So, now they want their money back and will likely start getting rid of US bases that makes them a target.

Oh exactly, I was saying that even if these AI models predicted something sensible then it would be promptly ignored if it didn’t fit with the prevailing dogma.

I don’t think it’s even that, but more the fact that people making decisions don’t even bother engaging with reality. You just have an echo chamber of people telling each other what they want to hear. If you don’t do this then you get ejected from the group.

exactly

I bet CIA is like any large org, and someone wanted to justify playing with AI

actually nuking stuff would be one things these AIs would likely be extremely horny for https://www.newscientist.com/article/2516885-ais-cant-stop-recommending-nuclear-strikes-in-war-game-simulations/

Russia is playing it smart here. By working with individual countries like Spain, they’re undermining the whole EU narrative that Russia can’t be reasoned with and that it’s a threat to Europe. Meanwhile, the US is making it crystal clear that it’s not a friend of Europe by any stretch of imagination. So, the whole EU stance is becoming increasingly untenable.

astronaut meme

I mean Israel bombed Lebanon and a UN peacekeeper died, the causality here isn’t too hard to follow.

Not necessarily. It’s not like Iran is just going to twiddle their thumbs during the ceasefire. There’s really not much the US can do to change the overall situation in a couple of weeks. Their bases in the region are still destroyed, their interceptors can’t be replenished. Their navy is still in the region and still starving.

The ceasefire makes Iran look very reasonable to their partners and the rest of the world. They’re showing that they’re the sane party here, and when the US or Israel inevitably starts violating the ceasefire, Iran will be able to point to that. It’s important to keep in mind that there are both the kinetic and political dimensions to the war.

I have doubts

I do think that’s the reason they’re pushing it so hard across all western countries now.

Right, people promoting free markets never actually read Smith, and pretty sure they’d label him a communist if they did. And the issue isn’t even with markets themselves since they’re just an allocator. The problem is with letting the market decide where things should be allocated instead of doing that intentionally. This is precisely why markets produce useful results within Chinese system, they’re operating within the framework of central plans.

Basically, authoritarian now literally means a government having any say over the economy. I find it really funny that the whole premise of free market capitalism has been that it’s more efficient than state planning, and now these same people are crying how it’s not fair that a planned economy is running circles around their market driven system.

yeah same, seems like there’s some hope in France though with the left getting its shit together finally

Europe basically needs to accept the fact that you can’t change geography, and that Russia can’t be dominated by the west. So, the only logical thing to do is to find a mutually acceptable way to coexist. The problem is that people in charge are all ideologues, and admitting they were wrong is going to be the end of their political careers at this point.

I expect that the breaking point will be when Russia wins in Ukraine. The whole policy towards Russia was predicated on the idea that Russia can be subjugated in the end, and that would make all the hardships worth it. Once it becomes clear that Russia won, the recriminations will start in full. People are going to ask what it was all for, and there’s going to be no good answer.

Indeed, my expectation is that the EU is going to fall apart in the end. The people at the centre of EU politics built their entire careers on Russophobia. Their hostility to China is really just an extension of that since they see China as facilitating Russia. Yet, now that the relations with the US are breaking down, and the energy supplies from the Gulf have been cut, there’s simply nowhere else that EU can get energy from. As the economic situation continues to deteriorate, countries will have to decide whether staying in EU is actually worth it in face of the energy crisis.

I suspect the material reality is going to necessitate doing business with China. The US doesn’t really have much to offer at this point.