The problem there is the growing political unrest across Europe, as the material conditions continue to decline it’s becoming harder for them to keep a lid on things. A huge cost of living increase will have major political consequences.

I don’t think there was any outcome where Ukraine could win from the start of the war, but what I’m talking about is the narrative collapse in the west. Right now we’re still getting articles like this gem arguing that Ukraine is winning actually, and there is still popular belief in the west that the war can be won.

I’d argue that the liberal world order is having its Sino-Soviet moment. If Trump actually does this, the EU will have little choice but to increase trade with China to keep their economy afloat. The trans-Atlantic rift is widening by the day, and Europe does not have many options left.

I agree there is a lot of stupid in the report, but there doesn’t need to be a peace treaty signed for the war to end. It’s not unthinkable that the US could walk away within two months if they decide that there’s no path forward, or the AFU could start to visibly collapse. In either case, the war would be effectively over. It’s obviously going to take more time for the hostilities to end and diplomacy to happen, but effectively the war would be over at that point.

Predictions like this are always tricky, but it’s interesting to see how different the assessment of the situation is here compared to the propaganda in the mainstream media. These reports are far more rooted in material reality because people make financial decisions based on them.

that’s incredible, everybody there must know the gig is up

It really is incredible isn’t it. These people just keep trying the same thing, that’s been hurting them far more than Russia, and they’re literally unable to think of anything else to do.

As well as lack of demand for the new treasuries they issued. Basically, the dollar is no longer seen as a safe harbor in time of crisis.

oh here’s the content

A sale of 20-year U.S. government bonds saw weak demand Wednesday, pushing the Treasuries to new lows for the year as yields climbed.

The Treasury Department sold $16 billion of newly issued 20-year bonds at 1 p.m. Eastern. It’s routine for the Treasury Department to borrow to fund the government. This auction, however, saw heightened interest as investors worried that increased uncertainty about the U.S. economic policies would lead to less demand for the Treasuries. Their fears were spot on.

The auction saw investors accept a yield of 5.047% on the 20-year note, compared with the past six auctions’ average of 4.613%. It was also 0.011 percentage points higher than the yield seen before the bidding deadline. This was the first time the Treasury sold a 20-year note with a rate over 5% since October 2023. Back in the pandemic, it could sell its 20-year debt at 1.22%. Higher rates signal that demand is weak, as the Treasury has to entice investors with higher yields to buy U.S. debt.

Since the auction results, the 20-year Treasury’s yield jumped to its highest levels for the year at 5.103% on Wednesday. Higher yields mean lower bond prices. The 30-year yield was also trading at its highest point for the year at 5.071%.

To be sure, such market reactions for a 20-year bond are abnormal. The 20-year Treasury debt is long understood to be the awkward middle child of the bond market. It isn’t a natural security for investors to buy. Investors tend to prefer 10-year and 30-year debt, which are more liquid.

Regular quarterly issues of 20-year Treasury bonds were eliminated in 1986, but former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin restarted them five years ago, during the first Trump administration. Yields on the 20-year notes are also always oddly higher those of 30-year bonds—an anomaly because longer maturities usually have higher yields.

“I never write on the 20-year auction because it’s sort of this low liquidity, lost child Treasury note where not many play around this maturity playground,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. “But, in light of seeing Treasuries again getting yippy, I’ll comment today because the auction was weak and bond yields across the curve are at the highs of the day in response.”

The poor auction comes at a troubling time. Bond investors’ fiscal worries have intensified as a Republican Congress progresses toward a new tax bill that could add $3.3 trillion to the national debt through 2034. More debt can threaten a government’s ability to pay it all back—even though the U.S. has a pristine track record.

Last week, long-term U.S. government debt lost its perfect Aaa credit rating from Moody’s, which cited successive administrations’ failures to deal with rising U.S. debt and deficits in its downgrade.

You’re telling me that hundreds of millions worth of weapons could simply disappear in one of the most corrupt countries in the world?