You’re falling for the great man theory here. Putin doesn’t run Russia single handedly, and there is a whole political system that exists to preserve the status quo. If Putin was out of the picture, the most likely scenario is that somebody like Medvedev would take over. The idea that pro western oligarchs would swoop in has no basis in reality.
This is not a great man theory (Putin’s actual skill is he makes consensus because he knows when to collaborate, when to mislead, and when to cut out in regards to various factions/interests), and this not about simplistic pro vs anti Western oligarchs in Russia. You are making the assumption that the elites gave a shit about this beyond NATO expansion. It has really only been the security state aligned people in Russia that have really been giving a shit about this. Derepaska is a perfect example. He has been a Putin loyalist all his life and he was vocally anti-SMO in 2022, but he shut the fuck up mid-2023. Compare that with Tinkov who went full lib brain on it and renounced his citizenship. There are no more Tinkovs in Russia. Fridman is an other good example, he was anti-SMO in 2022, arrested in London, and then shut the fuck up as soon as he got back to Russia in 2023. The anti-SMO view inside Russia esp. among elites isn’t majority pro-West, it’s “this is fake and a waste of resources”.
The rest of your argumentation is based in 2 main misunderstandings:
The popularity of the war after mid-2023 was the popularity of the war from 2022 to mid-2023.
You seem to believe that my argument is the main tension in the Russian government is between pro and anti Western interests, which was never my point and not a point I actually made.
You’re making the assumption that the elites are imbeciles who do not understand the current relationship with the west. I’m making the assumption that the elites are rational actors who can see how poorly trade with the west worked since the 90s, and who see that there are plenty of opportunities outside the west where there is possibility of much more stable long term relationships. BRICS is now a bigger economic bloc than the G7.
What the war exposed is how little the west has to offer economically, and that you can live without doing much direct trade with the west at all. Furthermore, new business niches opened up as a result of western business pulling out, and those were filled by domestic companies. The people who own these businesses have a strong incentive to continue current policies.
Both the political and business environment changed significantly since the start of the war. Hence why it’s nonsensical to make analysis based on prewar status quo.
The popularity of the war after mid-2023 was the popularity of the war from 2022 to mid-2023.
Every poll from Russia shows that majority of people support the war and want to end it on Russian terms. Your misunderstanding appears to stem from lack of knowledge of public opinion in Russia.
You seem to believe that my argument is the main tension in the Russian government is between pro and anti Western interests, which was never my point and not a point I actually made
What I’m explaining to you is that pro western contingent in Russia has effectively collapsed both politically and economically since the start of the war.
You’re making the assumption that the elites are imbeciles who do not understand the current relationship with the west. I’m making the assumption that the elites are rational actors who can see how poorly trade with the west worked since the 90s, and who see that there are plenty of opportunities outside the west where there is possibility of much more stable long term relationships. BRICS is now a bigger economic bloc than the G7.
This is a spreadsheet argument, not a bourgeoisie freedom argument. I agree that the Russian oligarchy has roughly replaced Western trade. The Russian oligarchy has not replaced durable Western hedging. There’s a reason that every Eastern oligarch stashes their money in the West. Their best bet right now is preventing Cyprus from joining the EU or at least preventing the agreement for Cyprus joining the EU leading to their citizenship getting flushed. The only other option at laundering their money and freedom has been Israel which hasn’t been stable. The reality is that Eastern Oligarchs know they operate below their governments unlike Western ones. Their personal risk management includes a large portion of hedging against their own political situation.
What the war exposed is how little the west has to offer economically, and that you can live without doing much direct trade with the west at all. Furthermore, new business niches opened up as a result of western business pulling out, and those were filled by domestic companies. The people who own these businesses have a strong incentive to continue current policies.
The business niches that opened up are floated by the government and government connected people. The reality is that Russian consumption is linked to Western companies. You cannot reasonably hope to live a middle class life in Moscow without either being politically connected or working for a Western company as many Russians do. It’s a property crisis and a demography crisis rolled into one. As the Soviet union folks who never left their homes die and their children sell them off for those millions in USD Moscow property values, there’s not going to be a comparable economic engine that allows for the middle class consumption to keep the capitalist process on the rails. The SMO has cut Russian consumer sentiment in half.
Both the political and business environment changed significantly since the start of the war. Hence why it’s nonsensical to make analysis based on prewar status quo.
I’m literally not, you’re saying I am.
Every poll from Russia shows that majority of people support the war and want to end it on Russian terms. Your misunderstanding appears to stem from lack of knowledge of public opinion in Russia.
This is silly. Putin’s approval rating never dips below 59. Levada Center which was the most reputable pollster has said it doesn’t believe it’s own numbers. Levada disinvested it’s meager 3% foreign investment in 2013 to remove the stink of the foreign agent law. The MoJ explicitly classified it as a foreign agent in 2016 after it’s polls showed a lack of support for UR. Public opinion polling means very little in Russia. There is broad support for the war in public sure, but going on public polling in Russia would get you laughed at by Russians.
What I’m explaining to you is that pro western contingent in Russia has effectively collapsed both politically and economically since the start of the war.
I’ve literally agreed with this multiple times esp in regards to Tinkov and the anti-SMO view.
This is not a great man theory (Putin’s actual skill is he makes consensus because he knows when to collaborate, when to mislead, and when to cut out in regards to various factions/interests), and this not about simplistic pro vs anti Western oligarchs in Russia. You are making the assumption that the elites gave a shit about this beyond NATO expansion. It has really only been the security state aligned people in Russia that have really been giving a shit about this. Derepaska is a perfect example. He has been a Putin loyalist all his life and he was vocally anti-SMO in 2022, but he shut the fuck up mid-2023. Compare that with Tinkov who went full lib brain on it and renounced his citizenship. There are no more Tinkovs in Russia. Fridman is an other good example, he was anti-SMO in 2022, arrested in London, and then shut the fuck up as soon as he got back to Russia in 2023. The anti-SMO view inside Russia esp. among elites isn’t majority pro-West, it’s “this is fake and a waste of resources”.
The rest of your argumentation is based in 2 main misunderstandings:
You’re making the assumption that the elites are imbeciles who do not understand the current relationship with the west. I’m making the assumption that the elites are rational actors who can see how poorly trade with the west worked since the 90s, and who see that there are plenty of opportunities outside the west where there is possibility of much more stable long term relationships. BRICS is now a bigger economic bloc than the G7.
What the war exposed is how little the west has to offer economically, and that you can live without doing much direct trade with the west at all. Furthermore, new business niches opened up as a result of western business pulling out, and those were filled by domestic companies. The people who own these businesses have a strong incentive to continue current policies.
Both the political and business environment changed significantly since the start of the war. Hence why it’s nonsensical to make analysis based on prewar status quo.
Every poll from Russia shows that majority of people support the war and want to end it on Russian terms. Your misunderstanding appears to stem from lack of knowledge of public opinion in Russia.
What I’m explaining to you is that pro western contingent in Russia has effectively collapsed both politically and economically since the start of the war.
This is a spreadsheet argument, not a bourgeoisie freedom argument. I agree that the Russian oligarchy has roughly replaced Western trade. The Russian oligarchy has not replaced durable Western hedging. There’s a reason that every Eastern oligarch stashes their money in the West. Their best bet right now is preventing Cyprus from joining the EU or at least preventing the agreement for Cyprus joining the EU leading to their citizenship getting flushed. The only other option at laundering their money and freedom has been Israel which hasn’t been stable. The reality is that Eastern Oligarchs know they operate below their governments unlike Western ones. Their personal risk management includes a large portion of hedging against their own political situation.
The business niches that opened up are floated by the government and government connected people. The reality is that Russian consumption is linked to Western companies. You cannot reasonably hope to live a middle class life in Moscow without either being politically connected or working for a Western company as many Russians do. It’s a property crisis and a demography crisis rolled into one. As the Soviet union folks who never left their homes die and their children sell them off for those millions in USD Moscow property values, there’s not going to be a comparable economic engine that allows for the middle class consumption to keep the capitalist process on the rails. The SMO has cut Russian consumer sentiment in half.
I’m literally not, you’re saying I am.
This is silly. Putin’s approval rating never dips below 59. Levada Center which was the most reputable pollster has said it doesn’t believe it’s own numbers. Levada disinvested it’s meager 3% foreign investment in 2013 to remove the stink of the foreign agent law. The MoJ explicitly classified it as a foreign agent in 2016 after it’s polls showed a lack of support for UR. Public opinion polling means very little in Russia. There is broad support for the war in public sure, but going on public polling in Russia would get you laughed at by Russians.
I’ve literally agreed with this multiple times esp in regards to Tinkov and the anti-SMO view.
Good news is that Putin is old and he’s not going to be in power for much longer. So, we will see who is right soon enough.