Image is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ recent article on Kashmir.
It looks like the spat between India and Pakistan could be dying down, due to a new ceasefire. As of the time of me writing this paragraph, it seems both sides want to maintain it (despite some reports of violations here and there).
Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It’s a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases. India has, in my opinion, had the more embarrassing moments, but international conflicts aren’t cringe compilations. I feel no good-will towards Pakistan’s comprador government, but it is at least nice to see Modi knocked down a few pegs. Regardless of the final technical victor, it’s obvious that - if the ceasefire is maintained - who won are the hundreds of millions of people who won’t have to live in fear of dying in nuclear hellfire.
This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood. It’s also why, as communists, our goals do not stop at multipolarity; it is merely the establishing act of a new era of agitation against peripheral and semi-peripheral capitalist countries that are forming powerful national bourgeoisie classes as the international American capitalists are forced away.
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
CNN: Biden diagnosed with ‘aggressive form’ of prostate cancer
Zionism gives you prostate cancer.
metastasis to the bone
He’s cooked
instead it turns out cancer will be curing Joe Biden
This picture is hilarious
metastasis to the bone
My uncle died bc of this cancer, horrible way to die. Can’t say I feel sorry for Biden, he had the chance to stop the genocide in Palestine, stop the war in Ukraine, and arrest Donald Trump, he didn’t do any of that and instead continued to arm Israel and Ukraine, and gave the republicans all they wanted to elect the Orange guy.
How did it get to that point without being detected? He has the best medical care in America, did he just refuse to get prostate exams?
You can have a doctor who’s willing to shoot you full of stimulants every time you have to go on TV, or you can have a doctor who will do routine medical examinations, but you’re not getting both.
Wait, wait, wait. Hold the crabs. Fucker has the best healthcare the Empire can manage. I do NOT want to be disappointed on this one.
Living his remaining days in intense pain and discomfort, prolonged by medical treatments. Either he dies quick or he lives in pain. Seems like a win/win to me.
article
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said on Sunday Russia planned to conduct a “training and combat” launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile to intimidate Ukraine and the West. The overnight launch was ordered to be implemented from Russia’s Sverdlovsk region, the GUR agency said in a statement on the Telegram app. It added the flight range for the missile was more than 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles).
"In order to demonstratively pressure and intimidate Ukraine, and also EU and NATO member states, the aggressor state of Russia intends to make a ‘training and combat’ launch of the RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile from the Yars complex," GUR said in the statement.
There was no immediate comment from Russia on the Ukrainian military intelligence statement.
Russia does not answer questions about its plans to test launch nuclear missiles, the details of which it classifies as a military secret, although it issues statements after such launches.
More than three years into the war against Russia, Ukraine is under enormous pressure as Russia seeks frontline gains in the Ukrainian east, and diplomatic efforts to end the war have so far yielded no results.
Unsure if this will happen, but most “missile experts” expect similar with Russia’s current line of strategic thought.
If current direction of Russian strategic thinking holds, Russia will not take this [European demand of unconditional 30 day ceasefire] and attempt to coerce NATO with kinetic displays.
The Ukranian military can’t retake and hold its lost territories.
Is there really a reason to burn an ICBM to try to intimidate an army that is effectively losing?
I’d guess it’s a reminder that their ability to strike reaches most capitols if any NATO goons think of escalating to try to save Ukraine
Article
Colombian President Gustavo Petro vows to resubmit his labor reform referendum to the Senate after denouncing fraud in the recent vote, calling on popular mobilization to defend workers’ rights and democratic participation.
President Gustavo Petro has announced his intention to resubmit the labor reform referendum to the Colombian Senate following what he and his allies describe as a fraudulent vote that blocked the popular consultation. The referendum, aimed at improving workers’ rights through 12 key questions, was narrowly rejected by the Senate with 49 votes against and 47 in favor.
Petro condemned the actions of conservative Senator Efraín Cepeda, accusing him of prematurely closing the vote to prevent the referendum’s approval and calling for the people to take a decisive role in the democratic process.
The rejection of the referendum was marked by intense controversy, with Interior Minister Armando Benedetti accusing Senate President Cepeda of manipulating the voting process. Benedetti claimed that Cepeda closed the voting registry while government-aligned senators were still trying to register their votes, effectively rigging the outcome against the labor reform initiative.
This maneuver followed an earlier attempt by conservative factions to revive a labor reform bill previously sunk in the Senate’s Seventh Committee, which Petro’s government had sought to bypass through the referendum.
In response to what he termed “fraud,” President Petro has called on unions, peasant organizations, indigenous groups, and youth committees to organize community councils and determine the next steps in defending workers’ rights and democratic participation. He emphasized that public forces should avoid repression, limiting their role to protecting institutional buildings and maintaining peace.
Efraín Cepeda has committed a possible crime, and the Supreme Court must investigate. The evidence suggests fraud, and the court will decide. I will once again exercise my constitutional and legal right to submit the referendum to the Senate, ensuring a fair vote. This time the people, the principal, will decide how to act before the Senate of the Republic, the mandated.
Petro’s call signals a strategic shift towards grassroots mobilization as a counterweight to legislative obstruction, reinforcing his government’s commitment to social justice and labor empowerment.
This latest setback highlights the ongoing struggle between Colombia’s progressive government and entrenched conservative interests resistant to Petro’s transformative agenda. The labor reform referendum was designed to restore and enhance protections for workers, addressing decades of neoliberal policies that have eroded labor rights.
Despite the Senate’s rejection, Petro’s administration remains determined to pursue reforms through popular participation and legislative channels, framing the fight as part of a broader movement for social and economic justice in Colombia.
President Petro’s resolve to resubmit the referendum and mobilize popular support underscores the critical moment facing Colombia’s leftist government as it confronts institutional barriers and conservative opposition intent on maintaining the status quo. The coming weeks will be decisive in shaping the future of labor rights and democratic engagement in the country.
Israeli military announces beginning of widescale ground offensive in Gaza
The operation involves forces from the military’s Southern Command, operating on the ground in both northern and southern Gaza, according to a statement.
The ground forces are supported by Israel’s air force.
As we’ve been reporting, Israel’s attacks on Gaza have killed at least 135 people today.
https://aje.io/klape0?update=3718420
This is allegedly the beginning of “Gideon’s Chariot”.
Poland prepares for war - NPR (sorry)
So, is there any evidence whatsoever that Russia intends to invade Poland? Or does Poland maybe intend to fire the first shot here? Or are they just acting out a big paranoid fantasy they have that evil Putler wants to take them over too?
Also the war in Ukraine has been going on for like three years, why now.
The airbase in Poland is probably target number 1 for Oreshnik in a hypothetical Russia-NATO war.
They run “preparing for war” stories every other week to keep up the paranoia levels and boost defense spending, if war really is imminent it wouldn’t be that impressive a prediction, and wouldn’t be the result of their journalistic capability, cf. the Twitter accounts that posted the Queen would die on X date for every possible day in the near future and deleted all the wrong ones when she really croaked.
The EU MIC is trying to kick into gear. There has been a push across all media and politicians to cut social spending and increase war spending. Fearmongering constantly is a necessary part of that
don’t they say this every year
i still struggle to think of a scenario where russia would expand into poland, obviously short of nato troops actually in the frontlines
Kaliningrad oblast, a Russian exclave surrounded on all sides by NATO members including Poland, is in a very precarious position. It’s why Europeans are always talking about Putler invading and annexing the Baltic states.
I don’t think Russia will take military action unless forced to, by a blockade or whatever.
Poland prepares for war
Also called “getting your lightbulbs in order”
The cynic in me thinks this can double as preparations to seize Ukrainian land in the event of a Ukrainian collapse. Iirc Hungary has been making similar noises about bits of western Ukraine, I wouldn’t be surprised if these vultures pick apart Ukraine’s corpse under the guise of “protecting ethic minorities” (ironic)
Doubt. Lviv is the bandera nazi heartland. Its going to be a mess if poland annexes it. Unlike Hungary who can use the actually existing Hungarian population and the divergent and discontent population of transcarpathia as an anchor.
Poland has never been sane when it comes to stupid land grabs
After several months of deployment, the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, currently positioned near Yemen for operations against the Houthis, is leaving the Middle East, and there are no plans to replace it – U.S. officials to Al Jazeera
- Telegram
Didn’t @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net say it was getting replaced?
The Gerald Ford aircraft carrier is expected to deploy to the region soon, but it could just stay in the Mediterranean for instance, and not enter the Red Sea.
Ahh okay lol they love their technicalities
Can someon tldr me on why this is absolutely necessary and why Evo himself is the only person who should lead Bolivia?
I’m not super informed, but Evo is unique because he came from labor organizing and has deep indigenous support. Indigenous people have their first leader in charge of the country for the first time in 500 years, I could see them being suspicious of any one else when they’ve all been colonists and compradors.
I’ve been wondering the same thing. It seems like real unnecessary confrontation within the left. Just pick a successor, like Sheinbaum was picked in Mexico.
That could also go badly if you pick the wrong one. Correa picked Lenin Moreno as his successor in Ecuador who immediately turned coat and the left hasn’t been able to recover since. Neoliberals have trashed the country.
Because it’s what the masses want. He has huge popular support and a proven track record of success. I imagine there is some element of justice involved for the people since he was supposed to get another term but got couped which is the only reason we got Arce
I’d argue if this was what the masses want then they would’ve voted for him to be eligible for another term in 2019 but whatever. I’m just concerned that the left is putting again all its weight into one figurehead and when he’s gone there will be no one to take the mantle.
Yeah it’s certainly a valid concern. I can only hope that all their organizations and unions and such are actively training organizers who will be able to take on leadership roles
Well has anyone considered that this is just extremely dope and my man has aura?
Seriously, a man protected from arrest by a convoy of indigenous proletarian supporters marching on the capital to take back power after he was couped, clashing with police along the way. The only way to make it cooler is to take power directly instead of just registering as a candidate in an election.
If they stop him from being on the ballot or manage to arrest him, I hope his supporters won’t take that lying down.
Meanwhile in the PRC 🫡🇨🇳
Zhao Weiguo, former board chairman of Chinese semiconductor conglomerate Tsinghua Unigroup, on Wednesday was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for multiple crimes, including embezzlement of national assets worth more than 470 million yuan (about $65 million), according to a court verdict.
the placard in front of the dock says 被告人 (defendant/the accused)
Another certified people’s daily banger
deleted by creator
Another example of China’s oppressive authoritarianism. In the West, this wouldn’t even be considered a crime.
What congressperson or above hasn’t gained at least $55 million from insider trading alone
Ben Norton appears on CGTN (Chinese television network) as a guest on a news panel
More
The audio also appears to validate Hur’s assertion that jurors in a trial likely would have viewed Biden as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Partly based on that determination, Hur decided not to prosecute Biden for improper possession of classified documents, angering Republicans because Trump was facing charges in his own classified document scandal then. Democrats and Biden’s White House blasted Hur for his observations about Biden. They repeatedly insisted he was “sharp” and that Hur was politically motivated. But the audio from the six hours of interviews indicates he and co-counsel Marc Krickbaum were respectful and friendly.
One Last Swing against the Invader.
Yemen launched another Palestine-2 ballistic missile at Israel’s Ben Gurion airport, the missile was intercepted (unclear what system), but some parts of the Palestine-2 missile’s Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) survived, including parts of the heat shield and control fins. No statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces yet.
Remains of Palestine-2 MaRV after interception.
Comparison of intact Palestine-2 MaRV (bottom) to Fattah-1 MaRV (middle), and Kheibar-Shekan-2 MaRV (top):
Update: Yemeni Armed Forces statement:
but brother get a better camo pattern i beg you
Digital camo is (unfortunately for aesthetics) the future. Ukraine even butchered some of their Soviet era MiG-29 fighter planes with it.
What is the current situation in Lebanon? Where does Hezbollah stand militarily?
The problem is that we have no idea, and that anybody making claims one way or the other is merely guessing based on vibes.
My own purely vibes-based analysis is that Hezbollah was significantly (but certainly not terminally) damaged by the Israeli offensive (just as Israel was significantly damaged by attempting it, plus the War Against The Towers) and has been taking time to regroup, re-organize, re-strategize, and re-arm, because the situation they were in prior to Nasrallah’s death is substantially different from their current one, with a now-hostile Syria bordering them and civil mayhem in Lebanon.
I wouldn’t be pessimistic; the mere existence of Israel will always provide the impetus for resistance groups to arise in order to fight back against them. A strategy of constant mass murder to instil terror doesn’t actually get you anywhere in the long-run, as European colonial history shows, and if anything, has the opposite effect of further promoting resistance. The Resistance will not be defeated because it literally can not; even if Hezbollah disbanded tomorrow, a new guerilla group would coalesce around the shared experience of living under Israeli oppression. Such is the history of colonial subjects for centuries.
Senior Ansarallah leader Nasr al-Din Amer:
In the coming hours, the Yemeni Armed Forces, relying on God, will carry out military operations targeting “Ben Gurion” Airport in Lod and other “israeli” airports. This is due to the recent “israeli” escalation against the Gaza Strip and the aggression against Yemen, and in continuation of the Yemeni leadership’s decision to impose a ban on this airport and other airports, in addition to the naval blockade and closure of the Umm al-Rashrash port until the aggression stops and the siege on Gaza is lifted.
Disclaimer: Airlines remaining at the airport must depart immediately, and all those present there, especially foreigners, must leave for their own safety.
(RNN)
Their missile capabilities have advanced significantly since October 7th 2023. From firing off long range SCUDs, to Hatem-2 (Kheibar Shekan-1), to Palestine-1 (Kheibar Shekan-2), to Palestine-2 (Fattah/Kheibar Shekan series hybrid variant), to Fattah-1 itself now. If a volley of Fattah-1 missiles are fired in a large enough number, the US/Israeli air defence net will struggle to deal with such an attack (as seen by Operation True Promise II), even with THAAD in the picture now. This is an opportune moment for such an attack, as the US Navy is busy rotating Carrier Strike Groups in the Red Sea (USS Harry Truman leaving, USS Gerald Ford arriving). With minimal to no US Navy warships in the Red Sea now, they cannot blunt a missile attack from Yemen with SM-3 interceptors for a late boost phase or early midcourse interception. The position of the USS Carl Vinson, off to the East in the Gulf of Aden, is also not in position to do this. US Navy warships near Israel can still launch SM-3 midcourse interceptors, but there’s quite a difference between ships in the Mediterranean launching SM-3s, and ships in the Red Sea launching SM-3s.
My question is if they can actually launch the advanced missiles in sufficient numbers to cause damage. Cluster warheads that release tiny munitions at high altitude on less advanced missiles are another option, but that would be very imprecise.
“And he who gives fair warning is absolved of blame”
When they do eventually strike the terminals of Lud airport, no one can say that they didn’t not give fair warning. The proud Yemeni revolutionaries are followers of the Islam of Muhammad and the family of Muhammad, rather than the Islam of the Ummayad butchers, and therefore they fight within the limits. What is coming is greater.
Pray for victory for the Resistance, protection for the people, peace for the martyrs, freedom for the prisoners, and punishment of the enemies.
Comrade, why don’t we emphasize their solidarity rather than their sect, just like they emphasize Islamic unity?
Glory to the resistance!
I think there is miscommunication. How are you interpreting what I have written?
I think he may have interpreted your mention of the Umayyads as referring to Sunnis in general. But it’s important to clarify that even from a Sunni perspective, the Umayyads are viewed critically in some respects. After all, Caliph Ali is considered one of the rightly guided caliphs by Sunnis as well, and it was the Umayyads who fought against him and ultimately contributed to his death. So in that sense, the Umayyads are seen as controversial, not only by Shia but also to some extent by Sunni Muslims.
You are entirely correct. However, the start of the Ummayad dynasty was the first Fitna, which is why Shia sources emphasize their brutality more, while Sunni may be ambivalent. Followers of the Ahl al Bayt is a clear reference to Shia Islam though
For as much as the Wahhabis scream about “bidah this bidah that”, the Nasibi (anti-Ali) ideology is pure innovation created by the Umayyads to suppress challenges to their rule.
followers of … the family of Muhammad, rather than the Islam of the Ummayad butchers
I interpreted this as a reference to their Shiism. I dont mean to misinterpret your words
No problem. I am glad you asked as it gives an opportunity for more people to learn important Islamic Revolutionary history.
The Umayyad caliphate was notoriously brutal, racist, corrupt, and heavily focused on the accumulation of wealth. It came after the death of the Prophet. The Umayyad system is of course the system and history that the gulf cartels try to emulate and promote. It has nothing to do with the Sunnah.
The Martyr Sayed Hussein al Houthi and the Leader of the Revolution Sayed Abdul-Malik al Houthi are clear that they want a return to the Quran and the Islam of Muhammad pbuh. The Quran mandates “not exceeding the limits” in all aspects. This is a phrase that occurs multiple times. It also mandates armed Jihad against the enemies who break treaties, steal land, and violate the Believers (Surah at-Tawbah). This has nothing to do with sectarianism surely. The Sayed is saving Islam from corruption and distortion.
Ansarallah is a tapestry of sects and political orientations, under the banner of what the Sayed calls a “Quranic project”, which is part of why it is such a powerful people’s movement.
I don’t understand why any of these countries shedding crocodile tears for Palestinians are even pretending to care. What would they even lose by fully and publicly committing themselves to Israel’s genocide?
Fucking hell all of Israel’s allies (like, 99% of the world) might as well drop all pretenses and self-annex themselves into Greater Israel.
Here’s an extremely black-pilled take:
spoiler
I’m gonna say this now. With all the continued support Israel’s been getting from nearly the whole fucking world, this isn’t just Palestinians vs. Israel, it’s Palestinians vs. (almost) the whole world. They all want Palestinians gone. Every country wants them gone just so they can shrug their shoulders and stop thinking about them, because they’re “inconvenient” for their relations with Israel. They want them gone so they can embrace Israel as the forever empire of the Middle East.
A year ago criticism of the occupation and genocide was political blasphemy but the protests and activism has started trends in these states to lay the groundwork to “always have been against this”. These states aren’t real democracies; they are class dictatorships violently repressing , covertly and overtly, the dissent of their own citizenry.
The truth of the matter is that these states are losing the facade of human rights, democracy, and freedom to favor Israel. These are the expositions of the obsolescence of liberal democracy to respond to the demands of the people in an immediate sense; only delegates can act within the boundaries of the state and the people have no access to the levers of power except for voting for delegates - pre-compromised by their own interests and influences - who make decisions on behalf of their constituencies with nothing to compel them but a whim.
The state has expended its tools in suppressing these dissidents. The dissidents delegitimize the state through the persistence of protesting, activism, and engaging in direct action to express discontent and publicly decry the illegitimate action by the state.
The pretences keep the people satisfied. All over Europe there are daily protests and activists who engage in direct action. It’s been really difficult for the media to keep demonising these protesters and activists because more people are starting to look through the bs. Police forces are in crisis because suppressing the protests is really hard work. Also labour unions are slowly starting to get involved and demand an end to support of Israel.
Fully openly backing Israel would put fuel to the fire and accelerate these movements. Governments are walking tight rope between backing Israel and preventing mass riots and strikes at public sectors.
I think I answered one of your questions before, but let’s put it this way: what can the individual countries actually do?
Very few countries can survive US sanctions. Unless you’re prepared to go the way of North Korea and Venezuela and the likes, and have the full backing of your own people ready to go through hell with you, you’d better not attract any attention to yourself, and chances are you’d end up a failed state like Libya where everything descends to chaos and having millions and millions of people of your own end up impoverished, just to save two million Palestinian lives?
This is simply the outcome of the world letting US and China to run a huge trade imbalances over the past few decades. By concentrating all industrial capacity in China, the rest of the world are made vulnerable to Western imperialism. This was a very deliberate imperial strategy by the US, and not a mistake like many people are saying.
Europe was never going to take the Palestinian side, save a couple of countries, but even if they wanted to, they are now heavily reliant on US energy to survive, and is in austerity itself.
Russia is already having its hands full dealing with Ukraine, and could barely do any power projection itself. Just look at how it lost Syria. And Putin was literally begging for everyone to de-dollarize since 2022 (to a certain extent, Lula did too), and many countries in the Global South was looking for a dollar alternative during the summer of 2022, but unfortunately China chose not to take up the offer and instead doubled down on defending dollar hegemony. This was a huge opportunity that is now forever lost. Russia’s not going to lose the war or anything, but that economic transformation is not happening anytime soon.
And obviously China is way too comfortable to abandon the status quo. After all, both the US and China have been the greatest beneficiaries of the dollar hegemony.
It is apparent that Trump is allowed to have his nonsense tariffs precisely because they have already seen how the world (mostly China) reacted to Russia’s call for de-dollarization after the Ukraine war started, and are calculating on the fact that nothing will fundamentally change. Looks like they’re winning that bet too.
Even Trump’s crazy tariffs could not replicate the dangers the US dollar faced when it first raised interest rates in 2022. That really was an opportunity that only happens once every few decades.
To put it bluntly, Russia (February 24th 2022) and the Palestinians (October 7th 2023) rolled their dice, and they lost the ultimate bet. The world lost an opportunity for an alternative system to emerge.
There is no point sugar coating anymore. Remember that human agency is the one to change the world. The left has to be at the vanguard of the movement. But are we even prepared? Has the left studied and devised its theory, strategy and tactics to the point where they are prepared to take on the rise of fascism?
We can only wait for the next crisis of capitalism to erupt. But even if it does happen tomorrow, is anyone even prepared to take action?
We can only wait for the next crisis of capitalism to erupt. But even if it does happen tomorrow, is anyone even prepared to take action?
If your posts are any indication, the answer to that is no. Precisely why I’ve been losing my will to live.
And if everything has gone according to the U.S. plan, if the U.S. is and always has been 100 steps ahead of everyone else, what’s the point of caring anymore? It’d be more feasible to just disappear and let everything burn.
It’s incredibly disheartening to say, but the fact of the matter is that no state of the world is permanent. Every moment of history has its massacre, and there are people with morality and clear eyes capable of calling it out. Vastly more will try and write their memoirs as tragically sympathetic but incapable. Still more will pretend it didn’t happen. Much like how communist parties were able to bring about the last famines of Russia and China, we hope to see the last of these massacres.
The rest of the world/ “West” doesn’t necessarily hate Palestinians specifically (though they clearly don’t view them as human). Rather, climate change means we will see one billion people dead by 2035 (i am not a scientist, but this is my prediction). Climate change will induce natural disasters and reductions in agricultural land. This will directly kill a relatively small number of people. Far more will become climate refugees, and many of them will flee towards the “West”.
The “West” wants Palestine to be the blueprint for concrete slum-hells, full of constant surveillance, starvation, and bombardment. They can then construct them along the southern edge of their area of influence to funnel climate refugees into. They also want a blueprint for unpersoning millions of people in the eyes of Joe Public. This will let them wash their hands of confronting any of the moral and practical crimes of unfettered capitalism and imperialism.
The “optimistic” take is that the above paragraph will objectively never come to pass. There is a point where people will snap back, and there is such a thing as too many people for high tech surveillance, and there is such a thing as too few concentration camp guards. Even if we have to watch as demons in human skin kill one billion of our comrades and siblings, the world will not end. There will be moments of joy and bird song and good food. There will also be roughly seven billion people left on Earth, and one billion people to avenge.
Our goal as socialists and communists, and i would say as humans, is to try and stop all that shit. If we can’t stop all of it, or even any of it, our goal is to prevent it happening again. Imperialism is self-defeating, capitalism will ultimately lead itself into crisis after crisis until it is destroyed, and there will need to be cockroach communists to try and provide mutual aid in the ashes. The fate of Cassandra was to have knowledge of future events while being unable to impact them. Cassandra did not have 150 years of theory and praxis from people trying to predict the future and change it.
Sorry if this is too long, but i agree with your outrage and i’ve been thinking about how to respond for a few days.
Billions dead by 2035 is a bit overkill. Serious wet-bulb conditions are expected to start around 2040ish in the Indian subcontinent, Arizona and the persian gulf.
i said ONE billion, and i also said that relatively few deaths would be directly caused by disasters like wet-bulb events. As of AR6, the IPCC says that 3.3-3.6 billion people live in contexts highly vulnerable to climate change. They also say that given the projected global emissions for 2030, it is “likely that warming will exceed 1.5 degrees C during the 21st century”. This is because political factors force the IPCC to consider scenarios where the world cuts all emissions right now. In reality, 2023 saw a peak in demand for coal.
Even if we don’t hit any tipping points in the next ten years, and if we can predict ocean behavior and the weather, 2023 was 1.35 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average. According to a report about climate change and insurance risk, more than 2 degrees of warming by 2050 is baked in by current policy, and that there is a roughly 90% chance of catastrophic warming between now and 2050. To be clear, they classify ‘catastrophic’ as 25% GDP loss and around 2 billion people dead. If global warming is limited to 2 degrees by 2050 then 800 million will die, and if it is limited to 1.5 with some overshoot 400 million will die.
There is a degree to which all reports are questionable, and unfortunately money for climate research, at least in USAmerica, is being cut right as our models start to diverge from baseline data. The actuaries who wrote the insurance paper aren’t more qualified than climate scientists. That said, it’s not like there’s any version of climate change extreme enough to make corporations and bourgeois governments change their spots. Is the AMOC going to turn off tomorrow? Are we going to see 8 degrees of a warming? i would say no. Everyone has to find their own signal to noise ratio with this sort of research, and i stand by my prediction.