It’s more that at my new job I can’t spend time posting when I should be working, and I really do not want to screw this up, it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to change career fields while also fulfilling a lifelong passion. This website takes a backseat to that. I did inform one of the mods here via private message last month that I’d be online a lot less, so it’s not like I dropped out because of world events or whatever.

The US continued to deploy assets from Fort Bragg and Pope Army Airfield (82nd Airborne, 3rd SF Group, Delta Force, etc) to the Middle East from April 14th to April 18th, most destinations hidden from open source tracking. Previously, over 30 C-17s were tracked to have arrived in Kuwait and the UAE for staging of the above forces. In addition to this, Marine Corps F-18C tactical fighter aircraft, an unknown amount, will also be deployed to the UAE to provide close air support for any potential Marine operations in Iran. They are in the process of crossing the Atlantic ocean. This is in addition to Marnie Corps F-35Cs headed to land bases in the region last month (unknown which to me, you can try figure it out) and and F-35Bs on the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer for the same mission, the Tripoli is already in the region, the Boxer is on it’s way. The Boxer left Pearl Harbor on the 1st of April, at an average speed of 15 knots it could make it to the Strait of Hormuz before the end of April, 26 day voyage. Not a prediction, but an illustration of how long it’ll take to arrive, and how close an earliest potential arrival is. The USS George HW Bush aircraft carrier is also on it’s way, going around Africa. The USS Gerald R Ford is in the Red Sea, just entered the Suez canal yesterday. The USS Abraham Lincoln remains in the region, about 250-300km from the coast of Iran.

Source on latest movements, Armchair Admiral on X/Twitter

There are now a total of 34 flights categorised as “Unknown Destination”, meaning I was unable to determine a destination from either ADS-B or ACARS data. This is an increase of 17 from the 14th of April.

There have been a further 15 C-17s from Pope Army Airfield either in-transit or arrived in the Middle East - three have arrived at King Faisal Air Base.

There have been 10 Navy-coded flights from Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort, where a Coronet East towed F/A-18A/C Hornets to Lajes Field on the 18th of April. Six of these flights arrived at Al Dhafra Air Base [UAE].

The USS Tripoli doesn’t have a well deck, meaning it lacks the full amphibious assault capabilities of ships like the USS Boxer, which has a well deck. This could explain the need for the Boxer. The USS Tripoli is often used as a mini aircraft carrier as the lack of a well deck means bigger hangars for aircraft, with over 20x F-35Bs on board, or an airborne assault force of tilt rotor and helicopter aircraft, or a mix of both.

This will probably be my last comment for a few weeks.

These numbers (1/3rd destroyed, one 1/3rd buried underground, 1/3 unharmed) are just the same numbers which have been put out by the Times of Israel war correspondent weeks ago. Everyone is just recycling them.

82nd Airborne is the premier airborne division of the US Army, it was the first airborne division in it’s history. Paratroopers, light infantry. Parachute assualts to secure national key points.

With relevance to a potential ground operation in Iran, the 3rd SF group is trained for Special Reconnaissance/Commando operations behind the frontline, Information Operations including electronic warfare and psyops, and most notably, Counterproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Now will they actually deploy in Iran? Who knows. Typically, as a pattern, if Trump sends the military resources to an area, he uses them. But this is very, very different from previous military actions. It would be a multi week ground operation, to excavate and seize nuclear materials. Casualties and fatalities are guaranteed at a level not seen in two decades by the US military, even if successful. Not a two day operation to rescue a single pilot. Even in that rescue operation, the US used every tactical fighter aircraft in it’s arsenal, and B-1B bombers, to provide close air support for the rescue operation. The US may decide not to do it, and try ceasefire shenanigans or try to negotiate a new nuclear deal, with regards to the nuclear materials.

Anyone pick this up? US using the ceasefire to stage the 82nd Airborne Division (and others) in the UAE and Kuwait. Information from a few days ago, April 14th.

Since the start of April [to April 14th] there have been 62 Army-related [C-17] flights, with 47 being from Pope Army Airfield, 11 from Dover Air Force Base, and 3 from Campbell, Robert Gray (2) and Henry Post.

Most of these flights from Pope have gone to Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates (26), and Ali Al Salem Air Base (10) in Kuwait. A further 4 have gone to Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv, 4 to King Faisal Air Base and 3 to King Abdullah II Air Base, both in Jordan.

Source, Armchair Admiral on X/twitter

Fort Bragg and the associated Pope Army Airfield is home to the 82nd Airborne Division, the 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne), Delta Force, and others.

No idea what will happen next. More ceasefire, more war, who knows. I have no time to follow this in detail.

Nothing’s changed lol

I sent one of the moderators a message on the 29th or 30th of March explaining why I wouldn’t be online anymore and said that they were free to tell people why (with less detail than the private message). In short, career change, and I really don’t want to screw up this career change. So no time for posting.

Yeah, or lots of bombs dropped. The melted propellers, I’d say a lot of fuel left behind. Propellers are also in the feathered position, the engines were off at the time of destruction. So most likely destroyed on the ground.

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F-35 managed to make it back to base, damaged, not shot down. Will it fly again? Most likely not, it’ll probably be scrapped. Effectively out of the fight. But it managed to make it back and land, which is an important distinction in aviation. (Heard of the saying “any landing you can walk away from is a good one”. People joke about it, but there’s a substantial amount of truth in it). Video from Iranian news agencies showed the airframe mostly intact after impact ,no missing wings, stabilisers or elevators.

No evidence of “multiple F-15 and F-16 shoot downs”. Look at all the evidence we got for this one shoot down of an F-15E. We would’ve got similar, and yet none has been produced. All we have is video from Iran of these aircraft releasing flares while being targeted. No impacts or hits.

An F-18 had a close call with Iranian MANPADS while doing a gun strafe. Video from Iran showed that the warhead did not make a direct impact, rather exploded behind the exhausts of the F-18. The warheads on these are very small to make them man portable, a couple pounds at most.

The A-10 was shot down yes, most likely as part of the Rescue Combat Air Patrol (RESCAP) for the F-15E that was shot down. It managed to make it out of Iran before the pilot ejected. Yeah, that would be the second shot down aircraft. Most likely as a result of trying to rescue the shot down F-15E airmen (pilot and weapons systems officer). You’d be correct there, Iran did shoot down a second manned aircraft, I was focusing on the F-15E in the original post.

Very ironic, you’re the one saying completely incorrect things with massive confidence. I’d recommend not believing everything you see online from the accounts who, before this war, couldn’t tell the difference between an F-15 and F-35, or couldn’t tell the difference between an Iranian 3rd Khordad and Khordad 15 SAM system, or Emad and Fattah-1 ballistic missile. This may include official sources on both sides. For instance, Sky News has been the usual rubbish. CENTCOM Twitter is calling air defence systems ballistic missile launchers. And Iranian offical sources like Fars are struggling with identification, misidentifying shot down drones, cruise missiles, aircraft targeted or shot down, etc. Beyond any propaganda or narrative shaping reasons, there’s simply a lack of knowledge in this field. To most people, including journalists, a plane is a plane, a drone is a drone, a missile is a missile, an air defence system is an air defence system. They don’t know the differences and intricacies between different systems.

Obviously mocking Allah. Basically saying there’s nothing their God can do to prevent any upcoming, or already occurred, destruction.

The US still has air superiority. Iran has shot down one manned aircraft, in over a month. The US led coalition lost 50-60 manned aircraft to enemy fire during the Gulf war, and they had air superiority for the majority of that conflict. Air superiority ≠ no risk, there is always inherent risk. It’s war. The previous Karaj B1 bridge destruction on April 2nd, made use of GBU-31 series JDAMs.

The US can drop a JDAM, LJDAM, or Paveway almost anywhere in Iran. They have stealth aircraft, stealth bombers, advanced suppression of air defence capabilities, etc. Even if an area is heavily defended, they can conduct a mission with lots of escorts to get there. The US also constructed a whole Forward Arming and Refueling Point (FARP) in Isfahan to get one of the shot down airmen out. Isfahan, in the heart of Iran, and the US had a makeshift temporary base and runway there for a day or two.

The US absolutely could conduct a bombing campaign against energy infrastructure and transport infrastructure in Iran. And Iran would respond by bombing the energy infrastructure of the Gulf Arab states, plus desalination plants. Iran’s already done that in some cases, with varying levels of success. Some strikes very successful, some not. This could really get even more out of hand.

Possible, but the MC-130J can bring fuel along and refuel aircraft on the ground. At the end of the day they use tires, if the soil gets too soft or worn out by repeated landings and takeoffs, there’s not much that can be done if there’s no grading or excavation equipment on hand, and aircraft are almost always heaviest on takeoff. Could deflate the tires a little to increase surface area/contact patch, but that has it’s own risks. Could be safer to just blow them up, and get the personnel extracted by other means, than try a risky takeoff and die in Iran after a crash. There’s also the risk of discovery by Iran, they may have not had enough time to prepare the temporary runway and get fuel in or resources, and needed to leave quickly. So blow up the stuff and get the personnel out before the Iranian military arrives.

Diego Garcia hasn’t been used to host strategic bombers, but the US did practice an amphibious assault operation there with the USS Tripoli. Also a logistical node and resupply point.

Looks like it, also the most modern. Warhead is still intact though, that’s very dangerous. Unexploded ordnance.

The US military set up a Forward Arming and Refueling Point (FARP), very deep inside Iranian territory to recover the second airman of the F-15E. The location of said FRAP very much sends a message to Iran, and a demonstration of the US capability to conduct such operations. The FRAP was located on the outskirts of Isfahan, Iran. Isfahan is also where they majority of Iran’s 400+kg of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to 60% is located, entombed underground. The US blew up C-130J series (unknown what exact variant) fixed wing aircraft and AH-6 Little Bird helicopters that were left behind on the ground as the FRAP was abandoned, apparently stuck in soft soil. The wreakage is not dispersed over a large debris field, rather quite close together with no impact crater, propeller blades not showing signs of impact, suggesting destruction on the ground.

Source, with geolocation and more images

Obviously extracting nuclear materials over weeks, with excavation, is a very different mission to personnel recovery over a few days. But it does look like the US will attempt such in the near future.

On JASSM usage. The first images of a new build AGM-158B JASSM-ER cruise missle used in strikes against Iran hsve appeared. Previous images so far have been of older JASSMs. The NSN and PN are so recent as designations I can’t find them on my 2024 copies of the yellow book. It appears to have been manufactured in May 2025, less than a year old.

The UK would probably kick up a fuss, and European countries would deny overflight, if the US ignored it blatantly. Despite media noise, this hasn’t happened. So I think it’s likely that the US is following this targeting restriction.

Full source

This is a contingency move for months long operations, as the rate of JASSM use has likely declined. Goes to show how long the US is planning to fight this. The build up indicated a weeks long air campaign at minimum. We are now past that minimum.

Bombers flying out of the UK are restricted to missions targeting Iranian missile and drone infrastructure. Bombers flying out of the continental USA have zero targeting restrictions.

The B-2 has something called the Smart Bomb Rack Assembly (SBRA), a bomb rack, not a rotary launcher, of which each SBRA can load up to 40x 500lb class GBU-38 JDAM GPS guided, independently targetable weapons. A B-2 can be equipped with up to 2x SBRA, one for each bomb bay. This means a single B-2 can hit 80 aimpoints on a single sortie with precision guided munitions. Precision guided “carpet bombing”. A B-1B with three rotary launchers can “only” load 48 of these, a B-52H with external stores and a single rotary launcher 34. I think. Though the B-1 and B-52 can also equip laser guided variants of such weapons, the GBU-54 LJDAM. The B-2 can’t do that as far as I’m aware, no laser designator, would need very precise “buddy lazing”. The B-1 and B-52 have the Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod for laser designation and guidance.

The B-2 is also the only aircraft that can carry the GBU-57 MOP, a 30 000lb bunker buster/penetration weapons. It can carry 2x GBU-57, one in each bomb bay. Though there are no signs of it’s usage currently.

3x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers were filmed flying above the Strait of Gibraltar, at 32-33 000ft, returning to the continental USA after carrying out airstrikes on Iran. They were spotted from their contrails.

Video

Audio from checking in with ATC (Air Traffic Control) in Seville, Spain