reuters.com
www.reuters.com

Let’s see if this leads to 1) a planned succession, like in Venezuela, 2) a secular, Ataturk-style revolution, or 3) complete civilizational collapse in Iran. I would give it 90/10/0.01 percent odds for those three possibilities.

Will the IRGC sink ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Will they set the Saudi oil fields ablaze? All I know is that somewhere in hell, Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger are smiling up at us.

  • peeonyou [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    49·
    12 hours ago

    🇮🇷 IRAN OFFICIALLY DENIES KHAMENEI DEATH

    Iranian FM spokesperson Esmail Baghaei to ABC News: “Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian are safe and sound.”

    “Everything is being done in accordance with our plans, and our armed forces are conducting their defensive actions.”

    Source: TRT World

    I’m thinking they’re pushing this to try to get some people to check on him so they can find out where he’s hiding.

    • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
      27·
      11 hours ago

      Possible. Both sides have reasons for lying. I fully believe the Iranians would Weekend at Bernie’s the supreme leader for a week while deciding whether they want to admit he was killed in enemy action to rally the people or claim he died of some other health condition and to tend to order of succession and locking down the government. As a rule if people are trying to topple your government a good way to do it is take out the leader and set off a crisis of who is in charge, by denying that and having people close to him pretend to be him stability is preserved. On the other side to urge on your factional splits to destroy Iran you’d want people to think there is a power vacuum so they’ll step up their game in disobeying central orders.

      So we won’t likely know for certain until he makes a crystal clear HD video appearance referencing these events and it’s been checked for signs of AI. Or at least a few days.

  • TankieTanuki [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    39·
    8 hours ago

    During the invasion of Venezuela it was reported that the US bombed Chavez’s mausoleum but it later turned out to be a psyop

    Edit: It could have been mistaken misreporting rather than an intentional psyop

  • BanMeFromPosting [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    23·
    11 hours ago

    Kill every western “journalist”. These people jerk themselves off with movies about how brave they are for exposing the catholic pedophile ring everyone already knows about or movies about “war-correspondents” (some comfortable white-collar dickhead repeating state department talking points) while suppressing the actual people doing actual investigative work and severing ties with anyone who accidentally stumbles upon something substantial to report, and they do it all for some deranged fetishizing of an ideal objective Reporting that does not exist. Kill them all, they are hyperliberals.

  • HarryLime [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    81·
    14 hours ago

    I’m not believing it just because Israel says so. Wait until Iran confirms it.

    Even if he is dead, the Iranian government is not organized around or dependent upon a single leader. The Guardian Council can appoint a new Supreme Leader, and they probably already have a succession plan in place. And even if they didn’t, the President, the Parliament, the rest of the Guardian Council, and the military could keep the government structure intact.

    • InexplicableLunchFiend [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      20·
      13 hours ago

      It’s still a massive loss if true. Just like the loss of President Raisi and Maduro and Solemaini and Nasrallah. Khamenei was the most hardline and anti-reformist and anti-Israel element in the entire Iranian government. Best case scenario we get another like him, but it’s also possible we get a softened and more reformist replacement like with Hezbollah and Venezuela

      In his absence, the civil government of Pez might get up to some real treasonous and defeatist fuckery

      It’s not great person theory of history to acknowledge that individual figureheads represent coalitions of power and that it can be effective to kill the ones you oppose and let the more squishy reformist and defeatist elements live and steer the direction of the government via assassinations. This is what Israel and the US do with their repeated strikes at the head.

      • GaveUp [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
        11·
        12 hours ago

        Does anybody with more knowledge of Islam and the Arab world know if the whole martyr thing would make Khamenei dying a different reaction than other world leaders?

        Dude is like 90 years old if he gets killed he gets to be a martyr defending his state against Satan in his people’s eyes instead of dying of prostate cancer or something lol

        • RedNajm [any, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          10·
          11 hours ago

          Arab here . I can’t speak for everyone but martyrdom it an important concept in politics and history here

          If he died by the hands of Pissrael, he would be seen as a hero by much more people probably, and that’s not mentioning the large shia minority populations regionally who largely support him/Iran

        • NoGodsNoMasters [they/them, she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
          4·
          11 hours ago

          can’t say what this would mean for khameini or a similar figure dying dying if anything so take this with a pile of salt but i think martyrdom is pretty relevant for shiʽis, especially that of the 3rd Imam ḥusayn (and his entourage) at karbala which is commemorated every year and involves the largest annual pilgrimage in the world (something like 20 million people). for twelvers (the kind of shiʽi Iran is) in particular this seems to be a big and pretty emotional affair so if i had to guess i’d say it could have some weight

  • CommCat [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    14·
    9 hours ago

    I’ve been watching presstv and while not admitting that he’s dead, they did touch on the possible scenario that he was killed, and the host goes on about how honorable martyrdom is. Iran has a bad track record of keeping their top generals and nuclear scientists safe, so it’s possible that Khamenei was killed. Should’ve built the Nuke…

    EDIT: Presstv just confirmed that Khamenei has been Martyred.

  • Leegh [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    57·
    6 hours ago

    Iranian Foreign Minister claims he’s still alive. Schrodinger’s Khamenei I guess.

    Edit: Cat Box opened, Khamenei found dead RIP.

  • Staines [they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    9·
    11 hours ago

    The Iranians wouldn’t know if he’s dead, that’s the point of keeping his location secret.

    Personally I hope he’s dead and replaced with someone who believes in nuclear sovereignty.

  • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    23·
    14 hours ago

    OP, did you mean for your layout to be like this?..

    Key points:

    • Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, senior Israeli official tells Reuters

    • Israel and US launched strikes on Iran

    • President Donald Trump says action will give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers

    • Hits reported in Israel and Gulf states as Iran retaliates

    • Attack triggers fear and panic as Iranians flee cities

    • Global airlines have cancelled flights across the Middle East

    Let’s see if this leads to…

    1. a planned succession, like in Venezuela

    or

    1. a secular, Ataturk-style revolution

    or

    1. complete civilizational collapse in Iran. I would give it 90/10/0.01 percent odds for those three possibilities.

    Will the IRGC sink ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Will they set the Saudi oil fields ablaze? All I know is that somewhere in hell, Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger are smiling up at us.