- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
Let’s see if this leads to 1) a planned succession, like in Venezuela, 2) a secular, Ataturk-style revolution, or 3) complete civilizational collapse in Iran. I would give it 90/10/0.01 percent odds for those three possibilities.
Will the IRGC sink ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Will they set the Saudi oil fields ablaze? All I know is that somewhere in hell, Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger are smiling up at us.


Possible. Both sides have reasons for lying. I fully believe the Iranians would Weekend at Bernie’s the supreme leader for a week while deciding whether they want to admit he was killed in enemy action to rally the people or claim he died of some other health condition and to tend to order of succession and locking down the government. As a rule if people are trying to topple your government a good way to do it is take out the leader and set off a crisis of who is in charge, by denying that and having people close to him pretend to be him stability is preserved. On the other side to urge on your factional splits to destroy Iran you’d want people to think there is a power vacuum so they’ll step up their game in disobeying central orders.
So we won’t likely know for certain until he makes a crystal clear HD video appearance referencing these events and it’s been checked for signs of AI. Or at least a few days.