- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
Let’s see if this leads to 1) a planned succession, like in Venezuela, 2) a secular, Ataturk-style revolution, or 3) complete civilizational collapse in Iran. I would give it 90/10/0.01 percent odds for those three possibilities.
Will the IRGC sink ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Will they set the Saudi oil fields ablaze? All I know is that somewhere in hell, Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger are smiling up at us.
can’t say what this would mean for khameini or a similar figure dying dying if anything so take this with a pile of salt but i think martyrdom is pretty relevant for shiʽis, especially that of the 3rd Imam ḥusayn (and his entourage) at karbala which is commemorated every year and involves the largest annual pilgrimage in the world (something like 20 million people). for twelvers (the kind of shiʽi Iran is) in particular this seems to be a big and pretty emotional affair so if i had to guess i’d say it could have some weight