reuters.com
www.reuters.com

Let’s see if this leads to 1) a planned succession, like in Venezuela, 2) a secular, Ataturk-style revolution, or 3) complete civilizational collapse in Iran. I would give it 90/10/0.01 percent odds for those three possibilities.

Will the IRGC sink ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Will they set the Saudi oil fields ablaze? All I know is that somewhere in hell, Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger are smiling up at us.

  • HarryLime [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    82·
    19 hours ago

    I’m not believing it just because Israel says so. Wait until Iran confirms it.

    Even if he is dead, the Iranian government is not organized around or dependent upon a single leader. The Guardian Council can appoint a new Supreme Leader, and they probably already have a succession plan in place. And even if they didn’t, the President, the Parliament, the rest of the Guardian Council, and the military could keep the government structure intact.

    • InexplicableLunchFiend [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      21·
      19 hours ago

      It’s still a massive loss if true. Just like the loss of President Raisi and Maduro and Solemaini and Nasrallah. Khamenei was the most hardline and anti-reformist and anti-Israel element in the entire Iranian government. Best case scenario we get another like him, but it’s also possible we get a softened and more reformist replacement like with Hezbollah and Venezuela

      In his absence, the civil government of Pez might get up to some real treasonous and defeatist fuckery

      It’s not great person theory of history to acknowledge that individual figureheads represent coalitions of power and that it can be effective to kill the ones you oppose and let the more squishy reformist and defeatist elements live and steer the direction of the government via assassinations. This is what Israel and the US do with their repeated strikes at the head.

      • GaveUp [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
        12·
        17 hours ago

        Does anybody with more knowledge of Islam and the Arab world know if the whole martyr thing would make Khamenei dying a different reaction than other world leaders?

        Dude is like 90 years old if he gets killed he gets to be a martyr defending his state against Satan in his people’s eyes instead of dying of prostate cancer or something lol

        • RedNajm [any, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          11·
          16 hours ago

          Arab here . I can’t speak for everyone but martyrdom it an important concept in politics and history here

          If he died by the hands of Pissrael, he would be seen as a hero by much more people probably, and that’s not mentioning the large shia minority populations regionally who largely support him/Iran

        • NoGodsNoMasters [they/them, she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
          4·
          16 hours ago

          can’t say what this would mean for khameini or a similar figure dying dying if anything so take this with a pile of salt but i think martyrdom is pretty relevant for shiʽis, especially that of the 3rd Imam ḥusayn (and his entourage) at karbala which is commemorated every year and involves the largest annual pilgrimage in the world (something like 20 million people). for twelvers (the kind of shiʽi Iran is) in particular this seems to be a big and pretty emotional affair so if i had to guess i’d say it could have some weight