• According to the bank’s base scenario, the conflict will end with negotiations, as a result of which Ukraine will lose some territories.
  • Ukraine will retain its sovereignty, army (possibly with restrictions), democratic institutions, and a course towards European integration.
  • It is noted that the trajectory is far from being defined, a number of factors can still change the balance and many of them to the detriment of Ukraine.
  • In particular, the developing conflict with Iran is causing secondary and tertiary effects, which risk diverting the attention, resources, and political capital of the West at a critical moment.
  • Bronstein_Tardigrade@lemmygrad.ml
    18·
    14 days ago

    If the banks are starting to see more profit in negotiation than in continuing the war, then the end is near. Haliburton and McKinsey rubbing their hands in glee at all the profits from consulting on the rebuild, given their narrowing profits in Iraq.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
      19·
      14 days ago

      I think the really big question is what the Russian plan is. My expectation is that Russia will fight until Ukrainian army collapses, and then they’re going to run referendums to see which oblasts want to join Russia. And then then what’s left of Ukraine in the west will become Europe’s problem. It’s gonna be a dysfunctional rump state and an economic black hole. Europe will either have to dump untold billions into propping it up, or face a massive refugee crisis. Whether Haliburton and McKinsey will be able to operate in that environment remains to be seen.

  • cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml
    10·
    13 days ago

    I see they are still living in 2022. The mood in Russia is vastly different today. The Banderite state isn’t going to survive this conflict.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
      12·
      13 days ago

      I’d add a caveat here that Russia will likely leave a dysfunctional rump state in western Ukraine as a problem for Europe to deal with. That’s where the vast majority of anti Russian sentiment is, and likely where banderites will flee as Russia advances and more oblasts join Russia. Controlling that directly would be very costly, and there would be little reason to. All the productive areas are in the east, the military would’ve been destroyed at that point. So, it wouldn’t be posing any real threat to Russia.

      • cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml
        10·
        13 days ago

        I’m not talking about Ukraine itself. I think Ukraine will still exist in a reduced form. But this regime that is currently in power will not survive. The war literally cannot end as long as they are still there, since they are incapable of not attacking Russia. And this includes the various government, intelligence and police institutions that the CIA and the MI6 have built up since 2014 that are filled to the brim with Nazis. The military will either have to be purged or they will not be allowed to have one.

        Without denazification any rump Ukraine no matter how small will pose a threat and will continue to plot terrorist attacks and launch drones.

        The mood in Russia overall and even in the Kremlin now is much less compromising than it was even just two years ago and they are prepared to go as far as they have to to get the job done. It is clear that there is no negotiation possible with the kind of people that are in Kiev, Brussels & Washington until they are militarily defeated.

        That’s why i say this piece is stuck in 2022. That’s when it was still possible for things to go as they describe here.