According to the bank’s base scenario, the conflict will end with negotiations, as a result of which Ukraine will lose some territories.
Ukraine will retain its sovereignty, army (possibly with restrictions), democratic institutions, and a course towards European integration.
It is noted that the trajectory is far from being defined, a number of factors can still change the balance and many of them to the detriment of Ukraine.
In particular, the developing conflict with Iran is causing secondary and tertiary effects, which risk diverting the attention, resources, and political capital of the West at a critical moment.
I think the really big question is what the Russian plan is. My expectation is that Russia will fight until Ukrainian army collapses, and then they’re going to run referendums to see which oblasts want to join Russia. And then then what’s left of Ukraine in the west will become Europe’s problem. It’s gonna be a dysfunctional rump state and an economic black hole. Europe will either have to dump untold billions into propping it up, or face a massive refugee crisis. Whether Haliburton and McKinsey will be able to operate in that environment remains to be seen.
I think the really big question is what the Russian plan is. My expectation is that Russia will fight until Ukrainian army collapses, and then they’re going to run referendums to see which oblasts want to join Russia. And then then what’s left of Ukraine in the west will become Europe’s problem. It’s gonna be a dysfunctional rump state and an economic black hole. Europe will either have to dump untold billions into propping it up, or face a massive refugee crisis. Whether Haliburton and McKinsey will be able to operate in that environment remains to be seen.