• According to the bank’s base scenario, the conflict will end with negotiations, as a result of which Ukraine will lose some territories.
  • Ukraine will retain its sovereignty, army (possibly with restrictions), democratic institutions, and a course towards European integration.
  • It is noted that the trajectory is far from being defined, a number of factors can still change the balance and many of them to the detriment of Ukraine.
  • In particular, the developing conflict with Iran is causing secondary and tertiary effects, which risk diverting the attention, resources, and political capital of the West at a critical moment.
  • aanes_appreciator [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    4·
    16 days ago

    JP Morgan also predicted that the Iran war would just randomly end with Iran giving concessions because the alternative would be the West having less oil.

    unless something changes politically, Ukraine isn’t willing to negotiate on those listed terms, no different to Iran. To me all this confirms is that the reality will be much worse for the losing sides in both scenarios

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPEnglish
      5·
      16 days ago

      There’s a huge difference between the two. Iran is a self sufficient economy, they’re fighting on their home turf, and they have huge economic leverage over the world by controlling Hormuz. Their economy has also been under sanctions for decades and is adjusted to that.

      On the other hand, Ukraine is a western proxy that’s in no way self sufficient. Their economy and military are directly dependent on support from the west. And that support is drying up. The US military production simply can’t keep up with the demands, and Europe is now suffering yet another an economic shock from the energy shortage resulting from Iran closing Hormuz.

      So, while Iran can fight for a long time, Ukraine is indeed in dire straits because their sponsors are now running into the limits of what they can do for them. Not to mention the manpower crisis that Ukraine is now suffering.

  • hello_hello [undecided, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    4·
    15 days ago

    JPMorgan writing this as if they don’t have an interest in carving up a post war Ukraine through privatization and cannibalizing the soviet era industry.

    This does track with the liberal analysis though which posits that the war started solely due to Ukraine’s desire to join the EU and NATO and not an intervention in an already existing civil war.

    This analysis has a lot of hopium attached to it considering how much of Ukraine was sold off to the highest bidder and the demographic collapse. We’d then have to understand that this report serves a dual purpose of actually prolonging the war by providing such a naive analysis to investors and news pundits (also LMAO at that russian death toll just pure Ukrainian hasbara)

    Only those on the Russian side can really come to terms with how dire the situation actually is.