According to the bank’s base scenario, the conflict will end with negotiations, as a result of which Ukraine will lose some territories.
Ukraine will retain its sovereignty, army (possibly with restrictions), democratic institutions, and a course towards European integration.
It is noted that the trajectory is far from being defined, a number of factors can still change the balance and many of them to the detriment of Ukraine.
In particular, the developing conflict with Iran is causing secondary and tertiary effects, which risk diverting the attention, resources, and political capital of the West at a critical moment.
JPMorgan writing this as if they don’t have an interest in carving up a post war Ukraine through privatization and cannibalizing the soviet era industry.
This does track with the liberal analysis though which posits that the war started solely due to Ukraine’s desire to join the EU and NATO and not an intervention in an already existing civil war.
This analysis has a lot of hopium attached to it considering how much of Ukraine was sold off to the highest bidder and the demographic collapse. We’d then have to understand that this report serves a dual purpose of actually prolonging the war by providing such a naive analysis to investors and news pundits (also LMAO at that russian death toll just pure Ukrainian hasbara)
Only those on the Russian side can really come to terms with how dire the situation actually is.
JPMorgan writing this as if they don’t have an interest in carving up a post war Ukraine through privatization and cannibalizing the soviet era industry.
This does track with the liberal analysis though which posits that the war started solely due to Ukraine’s desire to join the EU and NATO and not an intervention in an already existing civil war.
This analysis has a lot of hopium attached to it considering how much of Ukraine was sold off to the highest bidder and the demographic collapse. We’d then have to understand that this report serves a dual purpose of actually prolonging the war by providing such a naive analysis to investors and news pundits (also LMAO at that russian death toll just pure Ukrainian hasbara)
Only those on the Russian side can really come to terms with how dire the situation actually is.