According to the bank’s base scenario, the conflict will end with negotiations, as a result of which Ukraine will lose some territories.
Ukraine will retain its sovereignty, army (possibly with restrictions), democratic institutions, and a course towards European integration.
It is noted that the trajectory is far from being defined, a number of factors can still change the balance and many of them to the detriment of Ukraine.
In particular, the developing conflict with Iran is causing secondary and tertiary effects, which risk diverting the attention, resources, and political capital of the West at a critical moment.
I’m not talking about Ukraine itself. I think Ukraine will still exist in a reduced form. But this regime that is currently in power will not survive. The war literally cannot end as long as they are still there, since they are incapable of not attacking Russia. And this includes the various government, intelligence and police institutions that the CIA and the MI6 have built up since 2014 that are filled to the brim with Nazis. The military will either have to be purged or they will not be allowed to have one.
Without denazification any rump Ukraine no matter how small will pose a threat and will continue to plot terrorist attacks and launch drones.
The mood in Russia overall and even in the Kremlin now is much less compromising than it was even just two years ago and they are prepared to go as far as they have to to get the job done. It is clear that there is no negotiation possible with the kind of people that are in Kiev, Brussels & Washington until they are militarily defeated.
That’s why i say this piece is stuck in 2022. That’s when it was still possible for things to go as they describe here.
I’m not talking about Ukraine itself. I think Ukraine will still exist in a reduced form. But this regime that is currently in power will not survive. The war literally cannot end as long as they are still there, since they are incapable of not attacking Russia. And this includes the various government, intelligence and police institutions that the CIA and the MI6 have built up since 2014 that are filled to the brim with Nazis. The military will either have to be purged or they will not be allowed to have one.
Without denazification any rump Ukraine no matter how small will pose a threat and will continue to plot terrorist attacks and launch drones.
The mood in Russia overall and even in the Kremlin now is much less compromising than it was even just two years ago and they are prepared to go as far as they have to to get the job done. It is clear that there is no negotiation possible with the kind of people that are in Kiev, Brussels & Washington until they are militarily defeated.
That’s why i say this piece is stuck in 2022. That’s when it was still possible for things to go as they describe here.
Oh yeah, I completely agree there. Whatever government Ukraine is going to have going forward will have to be compliant to Russia.