• According to the bank’s base scenario, the conflict will end with negotiations, as a result of which Ukraine will lose some territories.
  • Ukraine will retain its sovereignty, army (possibly with restrictions), democratic institutions, and a course towards European integration.
  • It is noted that the trajectory is far from being defined, a number of factors can still change the balance and many of them to the detriment of Ukraine.
  • In particular, the developing conflict with Iran is causing secondary and tertiary effects, which risk diverting the attention, resources, and political capital of the West at a critical moment.