Image is of military and civilian sites across Caracas which were bombed by the United States as of last weekend.
As everybody has already known for a couple days, the US has abducted Maduro and his wife in a massive operation (of which the exact details are not currently known, but involved hundreds of aircraft and at least some bombing of military and civilian targets), and has threatened Venezuela and the socialist party with further abductions and widespread murder if they do not hand over control of the country directly to the United States. In a statement that really says it all, Trump said that Machado is not being considered for the colonial viceroy position due to her sheer unpopularity. Various parties and countries around the world - and inside the US - have expressed their disapproval, which, as we all know, will not shift US foreign policy a single iota.
A few months ago, when the pressure campaign on Venezuela began, I speculated that Maduro was going to be killed or captured eventually. Flagrantly illegal and violent American military campaigns in Latin America are not new. The US has been invading land, looting banks, assassinating democratically elected leaders, and otherwise overthrowing countries in the region for their own economic benefit for the better part of two centuries, under both Democratic and Republican parties. Unfortunately, we all know that Russia and China are unlikely to do anything meaningful to contest the US in their attempt to more violently assert hegemony in Latin America. I doubt very much that the China of today will come out to bat for Venezuela and start meaningfully pressuring the US economically. For better and worse, we are far from the days of the USSR.
However, Latin America has, historically, met the US in its radicalism, committed to wars of anti-colonial nationalism, and carried out successful revolutions against the dictators placed in control from the US. As history continues ever onwards and conditions develop, I can only assume that we shall once again enter that radicalizing cycle. In that vein, the big question on my mind, and everybody else’s, is: what comes next? Does the Venezuelan socialist party have the social and military cohesion to wage a years-long guerilla war against occupying troops? Can they quickly transition from a conventional to guerilla force as their military facilities are bombed, or will it take several years? Can they prevent the theft of their oil resources and make the attempt at foreign occupation more costly in both the manpower and economic costs than what that war will generate? Can Venezuela manufacture weapons for this guerilla war in a state of blockade? Will this military campaign begin immediately upon soldiers landing, or will it take a period of relatively unopposed occupation of months or even years? Will Cuba, Colombia, and even Mexico be in the same situation by the end of the year, with abducted leaders?
Yemen is the very recent proof that seemingly weak countries can force the American military to retreat in defeat. Can Venezuela follow? We shall see what Maduro has done to prepare the country for this war very soon. The only certain thing is that the murderous violence propagated by a trembling and dying empire shall be defeated eventually, whether it takes months, years, or decades, and the end result will be a socialist victory.
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
America has the citizens of the EU in a snare trap. The harder they balk at Trump and get offended by him going after EU allies, the more they “increase their own military spending”, the more they purchase American weapon systems and fuel the American MIC, which makes them even more dependent on American systems.
Honestly, masterful stroke by American Imperialists. The war in Ukraine put all of the EU into warmonger mode, and now the only way the citizens there can think of “rebelling” against the US is to get more deeply involved with the US - since the actual alternatives, which are economic divestment and domestic weapons productions are off the table due to de-industrialization from increased energy prices.
The EU is now incapable of making their own militaries, they are incapable of allying with “evil” nations like Russia, China, Iran, etc. So that leaves them with America. You made your bed buckos, hope you sleep well
I mean, the ruling class probably doesn’t even care much. Especially the politicians in power. Ursula’s family is probably set for life, they can all get no-show jobs at the Democratic World Institute For World Freedom And Democracy And Liberty And Genocide.
Yes, hence why I said citizens of the EU are fucked. They are complete idiots who got dogwalked into this because of their Russia hate and chauvinism and white supremacy, it blinded them to the actual costs they would incur and the compromising position the war would put them into. It blinds them to their own “ally” sabotaging their energy infrastructure and blowing up their economies. Not just the elites, this was a widespread popular warmongering movement with majority support and they will continue to pay the penalty for their arrogant ways.
This really needs to be emphasized more. The war is not as popular now anymore but when the war started and the news were reporting all those Ukrainian “victories” in the early weeks and months there was genuinely widespread war euphoria among a lot of Europeans who were convinced Russia was about to be defeated in no time, Putin was going to fall and Ukraine was going to sweep into Crimea.
Obviously not everyone was swept up in this mania, but a sizeable chunk of the population was, thanks to the disgusting role the media played in boosting propaganda narratives and whipping up anti-Russia fervor.
It was grotesque, it reminded me of those old pictures you see from the start of WWI when people literally went out on the streets cheering and celebrating the outbreak of the war:
To be fair, Trump isn’t exactly wrong when he said that Europe has been taking advantage of NATO to save a lot of spending on defense budget.
For years, the NATO countries in Europe leveraged the US military for protection and that allowed them to spend more on other parts of their domestic economy, within the neoliberal EU framework, of course. You can say that they are vassals, but let’s not pretend like they didn’t take advantage of that to turn the EU into the world’s largest economic bloc.
And to be honest, if Hillary had won the US presidential election in 2016, I suspect that this warm relations between the US and Europe would not have changed at all. The US bourgeois establishment fully anticipated that Hillary would have secured the position.
Unfortunately, the bourgeois establishment awoken to a new harsh reality, where the signs were already showing since the primaries in 2015. The rise of populism spearheaded by Bernie Sanders on the left, and Donald Trump on the right, and the eventual Trump’s victory made the establishment realized that the internal contradictions of US capitalism - the long-term consequences of de-industrialization - could not longer be contained. The two decades long of smooth-sailing neoliberalism since the collapse of the USSR was ending, and the last straw was the 2008 global financial crisis that killed the social mobility of tens of millions of the so-called “middle class” people in America.
I believe that this was the real turning point. All conflicts have a class component in it. And everything that is happening today is likely what caused the US to start looking into taking drastic measures to break up the status quo.
The US is no longer pretending because for them, the neoliberal era is expected to be over. It is the Europeans, and interestingly also the BRICS countries, who have enjoyed running trade surpluses over these years that want to defend the global neoliberal order.
This is why you’re seeing the US taking initiatives to break all those pretense about democracy and sovereignty and human rights. None of these was a mistake or blunder. The breaking down of the status quo is the goal. They are already forging a new fascist future for themselves, while the rest of the world is still reacting to what just happened and hasn’t accepted the new reality yet.
I don’t like this framing
Protection from what? The biggest external dangers to Europe have been from radical islamist terrorism, which is a direct consequence of supporting the US military invasion of Iraq. Europe hasn’t been threatened, and therefore not protected by anyone in the past 30+ years.
Protecting against Russia now? Again, the Ukraine conflict is manufactured by the US and the EU followed. Had there not been for western intervention in Russia’s sphere of influence, Europe would be happily consuming Russian gas and joining the new silk road through Russia.
Protection against Russian retaliation. You think the EU would dare to challenge Russia without the US military backing? They get to take advantage of that while spending minimally into their own defense budget. The EU is not as innocent as you think they are.
Not true. Ukraine conflict was started by the EU and the US took advantage of the coup.
Read my long post here about the background of the Ukraine war, which literally started with the EU offering a free trade agreement to the Ukraine with the strategic intent to destroy Russia’s domestic market.
Ask the Mafia. “Protection” turns out to have several meanings in practice. LOL.
Exactly. Was about to post the same
I think you are underestimating the EU’s capability towards popular fascism. Anti-American “strong” Europe sentiments are gaining a lot of political currency across the continent. Calls to remove all American companies, set up EU alternatives to both tech and weapons manufacturing, etc. The neoliberal elite of the EU has very little popular support, and leftist movements are pretty much dead in the water, but I really would not be surprised with some kind of popular neo-fascist pro-EU political movement that does want to bring back industry and weapons manufacturing to Europe.
Most fascists in europe are very pro-america and are culturally even more assimilated into american culture than liberal europeans, of course there are still very traditional fascists but they are not the ones coming to power.
Except that even the fascists in Europe are neoliberal US-bootlickers. Their nationalism consists only of hating immigrants. Everything else, all the talk of Europe standing up to Trump, Europe being an independent geopolitical player, rebuilding European militaries, that’s all empty rhetoric, it’s political posturing.
There is no significant political force in Europe today that would be capable or even willing to break with the Americans.
The only way for Europe to rearm is to buy American weapons, using American technologies, relying on American communication systems and American logistics. Europe’s own arms industry is tiny and consists of producing a few high cost specialized (“boutique”) items, that in the end also depend on integration with NATO, aka US systems.
and how would they do that? They are rotting, de-industrializing, have sky-high energy costs and all of their military systems are dependent on America. They would have to completely overhaul their entire militaries to get out of the American MIC ecosystem they are locked in. They can’t build their own military, and building up more American weaponry makes them more (not less) subservient to American imperialists
The same way Nazi Germany did in the 1930s. Germany was under severe financial strain after the defeat in WWI and the increasing squeezing during the Great Depression. They had to turn to Russia to secure for themselves the energy source in the east.
Which… is exactly what is happening today. Energy sovereignty has always been a key issue for Europe since the past century. You’d have noticed that Europe placed a lot of emphasis into transitioning into green tech and renewable energy over the years, hoping to transform their economy out of fossil fuel reliance, only for such effort to be killed by China’s superior renewable industrial sector.
Being choked by the US, being out-competed by China, Europe has no choice but to secure the energy for themselves one way or another, and the option here includes invading/collapsing Russia to secure the resources for themselves. Hence, the vast militarization effort in Europe right now. None of this is a coincidence. That’s their strategic play for the near future.
Pretty sure Nazi Germany powered their industrial base using locally sourced coal.
Some petroleum was supplied from Romania and Iraq, and eventually the Soviets after the pact (1940) until the German invasion in 1941.
Petroleum supplies have always been a key weakness for German self sufficiency.
I wonder if Germany solar farms might improve rates of reindistrialization today.
I have a question since you know more about this: was the need for oil by Nazi Germany driven by their expanding militarization (mechanized forces)? i.e. if they had to sustain the size of their military for continuous warfare, they had no choice but to seize the oil in the Caucasus?
I’m not certain, but I think that’s a likely possibility. In any case, petroleum supply was a constant concern for the duration of the Nazi German enterprise.
Adam Tooze has a deeper look in this book:
https://ia800401.us.archive.org/24/items/ToozeAdamTheWagesOfDestructionTheMakingAndBreakingOfTheNaziEconomy/Tooze%2C Adam - The Wages of Destruction The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy.pdf
Thanks, I’ll look into it for sure
Weimar Germany was one of the most industrialized and developed parts of the entire world in the lead up to WW2. Of course they could militarize, using their own facilities and industry. That is no longer the case. Germany is no longer the most developed part of Earth, nor is anywhere in the EU. What little industry they do have remaining is highly specialized towards non-military production - things like luxury cars.
Hitler also inherited the German WW1 war machine and all of the military production therein. No such things exists today.
Total EU industrial output before Ukraine war is similar to US output. But Europe will never agree on lunch first
Not correct. Treaty terms destroy or hand over most of it. Even now Europe have more military industry. Weimar state ony could made light weapon and small arm.
I’m not saying it’d be easy, and it’s more likely they don’t do this, but states are very powerful. If there was a broad coalition within the EU agreed to spend spend spend and bring back industry to Europe, they absolutely could. There is domestic European industry, a lot of it lying idle. And the fascists in Europe (outside of the Baltics) are all advocates of ending the war in Ukraine and rebuying oil from Russia. If the right plays their cards right and can tap into the groundswell of anti-Americanism they could win power and start enacting what I laid out; the bourgeoisie would fall in line because they would still be able to make quite a bit of money from this, mostly in the form of state handouts (look at the German industrial spending on domestic arms already). The current neoliberal leadership are Atlanticists and mostly incompetent, but that is not the case for many of the fascists.
I think the problem is here. It gets the causal relation backwards. Such a shift doesn’t end with the bourgeoisie; it starts with them, and it’s the politicians who follow (or, rather, are chosen and shaped from it). In Nazi Germany and fascist Italy, the fascist movement was led by capitalists in heavy industry, although it’s true that capitalists of other industries were more in the “fell in line” camp. Fascism and Big Business, by Daniel Guerin, does a good job of analyzing this.
I mostly agree with this, but I think the cold hard reality is that Europe is fucked energy-wise, no matter what they do now. Europeans can bark all they want, but can they re-industrialize to any significant degree without either American LNG or Russian oil?
They absolutely cannot, but most of the fascists in the EU already want to normalise with Russia and end the war in Ukraine. Meloni (but not her partner party Lega by Salvini, who are pro-Russia) and the Poles are the exception, but the German AfD, Austrian FPÖ, Hungary’s Fidesz, and even the RN in France (who very well might win the next election) are all advocates of ending the war and buying Russian oil again.
I have always said that people on some level discount the idea of Europe and the institutions of the EU a bit too quickly. The worst case scenario for them is to become irrelevant on the day to day affairs of european countries. But that’s far from the most likely outcome. Ironically, the more certain fascist and neo-nazi groups rally against those they perceive as non-white, the more purchase they create for the exact sort of discourse which has unified states in Europe for the past 500 years. Only instead of early modern monarchies justifying standing armies because France/hostile neighbors exist, you’ll have the EU justifying its unification via hostility from multiple fronts - the US and Russia militarily and China economically.
Having said that, I do think that Discourse is one thing, action is another. Trump has rallied against the central tenets of neoliberal austerity for close to 10 years now. In practice, both Trump Administrations have just practiced the same financialized capitalism as ever - only with some post Soviet levels of shameless robbery attached. Likewise Europe will talk the talk but will never walk the walk of disentangling itself from the American MIC. Every European financier and elite’s wealth is no less tied to the AMIC than the average American Senator.
I would suggest finding a metaphore that doesn’t involve some racist stereotype, backed into a corner, or something that doesn’t rely on chauvanistic ideas of some imagined enemy at the gates
i did not realize anyone considered it offensive. I looked it up just now and I don’t see anyone really claiming it is offensive, but maybe i’m mistaken so i’ll edit it. It’s based off a real historical medieval Chinese finger torture device called the Zanzhi, or finger-crusher.
Do you have another example of an apt metaphor where the more one struggles to free oneself, the more entangled they become? “Back into a corner” is not what I’m trying to convey here, I’m pointing out that Americans managed to get the EU citizens into a position where the more Trump pisses them off and the more they “rebel” the more dependent they become on America.
A snare trap works, I think