The US is an oil importer. The US is a net energy exporter (natural gas plays a huge role here). And even with higher prices, oil & gas revenue will be like ~2% of the US economy at most. Sure, some of Trump’s donors are probably very happy, but the US economy won’t be happy with the blockade in the long-term. Also, the US economy is about ~2x as oil-dependent as other developed countries, so higher oil prices might actually hurt the US economy more, if the distribution of oil was evenly spread out. Since it isn’t (the US can satisfy most of its consumption with domestic production), the US will be hurt later than Asia or Europe.

On top of all that, the US is a burgerreich. In Europe, there will be a lot of confusion and misdirected blame, mostly because no one really knows who actually makes the decisions in the EU. In the US, the president would be blamed even if he had nothing to do with higher gas prices.

It is certain that it will be bad for the fans and possibly the players, but what I would like to see is a total traffic collapse that results in empty stadiums or delayed games. Iran advancing to a group that is played in the US and refusing to go. Maybe ICE arrests a bunch of FIFA officials or diplomats and sends them to a concentration camp. Trump getting mad at what some random player from Spain says on social media and deporting him back to Spain. Teams pulling out during the tournament.

That would all be lovely!

The now-famous Khorramshahr 4 missile makes an appearance in public.

Iranian official tells me that as of this moment (3:38PM ET), Iran won’t attend a new round of talks. Official says Pakistan told Iran that Trump will lift the naval blockade in final hours of the ceasefire. If that happens & ceasefire extended, new talks could happen Thursday.

Iranian officials have consistently said that they are prepared for Trump to resume the war. A senior official recently told me that if that happens, Iran will suspend all diplomatic channels indefinitely and focus on imposing “significantly greater costs on US interests”

https://x.com/jeremyscahill/status/2046674943748755531

Iranian official tells me that as of this moment (3:38PM ET), Iran won’t attend a new round of talks. Official says Pakistan told Iran that Trump will lift the naval blockade in final hours of the ceasefire. If that happens & ceasefire extended, new talks could happen Thursday.

Iranian officials have consistently said that they are prepared for Trump to resume the war. A senior official recently told me that if that happens, Iran will suspend all diplomatic channels indefinitely and focus on imposing “significantly greater costs on US interests”

https://x.com/jeremyscahill/status/2046674943748755531

It would be very funny if the US part of the '26 World Cup was a total shitshow.

Ceasefire ends in about ~6 hours. We haven’t seen any US innovations when it comes to fake news to calm the markets (yet), they even conceded that no negotiations are happening in Pakistan and revealed that the US negotiating team didn’t even leave the US.

Big gas pipeline explosion in Pakistan. Maybe we are just paying more attention to this stuff, but the number of big booms/fires does seem larger than usual, no? And this list doesn’t even have everything, it is missing at least that Texas refinery fire in early April.

My ‘good for one free pass of Hormuz’ NFT gone.

Ah yes, the Islamo-Bolsheviks.

We disavow.

Maybe we get a new Trump innovation in dealmaking, like announcing that a deal has been made, but the deal is actually between the US and an “Iranian government in exile” or some shit like that. After that, bombing resumes.

The entire Red Sea region (Strait, Yanbu port, Yanbu pipeline) might be Iran’s target in response.

Will the EU try to do Romania-style election theft here?

A conventional war with China was never the US plan tho. The US plan is a naval blockade of China by controlling Hormuz, Malacca, the Philippine Sea and the Sea of Japan. That was probably also fantasy land, especially after what has happened with Iran, but that was the plan. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are just supposed to keep China busy for a while, no one in the US is actually expecting to hold those regions. I remember a couple of US politicians saying that the US should bomb Taiwan’s factories after China captures Taiwan.

The video is kind of shitty, are these supposed to be JDAM-ed bombs?

Maybe possibly RIP to our boy Jordan Peterson. When you see the devil, give him hell!

The US absolutely wanted the time to rearm and resupply. It is just that airlifting shit isn’t very efficient. Maybe US sailors will get some decent meals for a few weeks, but that is probably very low down on the US list of priorities.

So when do USIS resume bombing Iran? Trump’s favorite thing is “surprise”, so I guess tomorrow could be the day?

That “Jewish ambulances” story quickly disappeared from the news after they got new ambulances from the state and arrested a suspect. The story still being referenced in the media at the same time that the story itself is no longer being reported on (the names of the suspects were never released and the suspects are out on bail IIRC) is some wild shit. And it was (for some reason) a big international story when it happened!