My summary of the situation as I understand it is in spoiler tags below.
summary
After many long weeks, Iran and the US have agreed that they’re going to begin negotiations on certain topics in a process lasting at least 60 days. Due to America’s perfidy during previous negotiations, trust has broken down so far that Iran demanded $12 billion of their frozen funds and several other promises, such as the end to the naval blockade, to even return to the table, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Iran also demanded that negotiations take place in two stages, and that nuclear issues will only be discussed in the second stage, which will be several weeks from now if everything goes as planned.
The terms of the MoU have themselves been a big source of confusion and suspicion, for me and many other pro-Iranian spectators. Getting the wording exactly correct is important, because the US really is like the devil - leave room for any possible interpretation in the contract that favors them more, and they’ll insist that this was the only interpretation up for discussion. Additionally, the US might be historically bad at winning wars, but they’re very, very good at winning peaces: they set up the post-WW2 order to best suit them by playing the European powers off each other; the DPRK might have survived the Korean War politically intact but existed for nearly the next hundred years as a sanctioned pariah; Vietnam was soon forced to economically engage with the country that had dropped triple of all the bomb tonnage of WW2 on them; and so on. It is no exaggeration when I say that the negotiation phase will be the most dangerous part of this war and it could lead to the most death and destruction without a single missile impacting Iran.
However, there’s one little genocidal colony in the region that could stop this whole process from even beginning, as the US appears to have promised Iran that the Zionists will stop the war against Lebanon (and perhaps Gaza too? I’m a little unclear) and even withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, including all bases set up since this broader conflict began. Apparently, the US promised this in return for Iran not striking the Zionists in return for their most recent strike on Beirut on June 14th. Now, the issue with this whole situation is that the US greenlit the Zionist strike on Beirut, and they knew that Iran would respond to it because they did in response to an earlier strike. If the US made such major concessions to Iran in return for this response strike not occurring, then why authorize the Beirut strike at all? Why make their position worse? Right now, I can think of two reasons. First is that they attempted to create one final embarrassment for Iran, under the assumption that Iran was so desperate for a deal that they wouldn’t risk responding. Second is that this is all one big ruse or misdirection; the US does not intend to follow through with the MoU and subsequent negotiations anyway, and so the terms they’re “agreeing” to don’t really matter.
With the MoU signing apparently set for June 19th, we’ll know for sure soon.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
“I understand how the Iranians win in this MOU, but I sure don’t see how this helps one single American family,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren told reporters on Capitol Hill.
CNN: B-52 bomber crashes shortly after takeoff at California’s Edwards Air Force Base, military says
It is not immediately clear if there are any injuries. CNN has reached out to the base for more information.UPDATE: Eight crewmembers are believed to be dead in a B-52 bomber crash shortly after takeoff from a base northeast of Los Angeles Monday morning, Edwards Air Force Base said.
The crash left a towering black plume at Edwards Air Force Base, located in California’s Mojave Desert, northeast of Los Angeles. The runway at the base was left with a large blackened scar and smoke, but it was difficult to make out any distinct parts of the wreckage, video from CNN affiliate KCAL shows.
Before Monday’s crash, the most recent fatal accident involving the aircraft was in 2008, when six Air Force personnel were killed after their B-52 crashed into the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Guam while preparing for a parade flyover.
It is not immediately clear if there are any injuries
it was difficult to make out any distinct parts of the wreckage
ok
even if everyone on board died (
) this crash still definitely saved lives because it’s one less airframe available for the machineMaybe their toilet got clogged
May many such incidents follow.
TRUMP OFFICIALS REPORTEDLY OPEN BACKCHANNEL CONTACTS WITH ISRAELI OPPOSITION FIGURES
U.S. SAID TO BE ENGAGING ISRAELI OPPOSITION AMID CONCERNS OVER NETANYAHU COALITION
TRUMP ADMIN REPORTEDLY BUILDS TIES WITH POST-NETANYAHU CONTENDERS
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2068143107858919749
it would be funny if this war just ends with israeli regime change and Iranian normalization
Officially announced the Strait of Hormoz is CLOSED (official Hezbollah telegram account)
#Islamic_Republic
Central Headquarters “Khatam Al-Anbiya”:
{And if they break their oaths after their covenant and revile your religion, then fight the leaders of disbelief. Indeed, they have no faithfulness to their oaths, that they may desist.} — (Holy Qur’an – Surat At-Tawbah [9:12])
In light of the United States’ clear breach of its commitments and its failure to implement the first provision of the agreement to end the war, and in response to the ongoing and continuous violations of the ceasefire by the Zionist entity in southern Lebanon, accompanied by the brutal killing and displacement of hundreds of thousands of the inhabitants of this oppressed region, as well as the continued presence of occupying Zionist forces on the territory of southern Lebanon, it is hereby announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to maritime traffic.
It is noted that this measure constitutes the first phase of the response to the enemy’s breach of its commitments. Should the aggressions continue, further steps will be planned and undertaken to compel the enemy to fulfill its obligations.
#Military_Media
BREAKING: The Strait of Hormuz has been officially closed
An Iranian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, will travel to Geneva tonight to meet with U.S. officials According to the Foreign Ministry, Araqchi will ‘demand clarifications’ and follow up on the implementation of the U.S. commitments in the MoU.
This statement by the Foreign Ministry came before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was announced. It’s possible Araqchi’s trip is cancelled.
- Middle East Spectator
—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧 BREAKING: ‘We will remain in the occupied areas in Lebanon. We will maintain the security zone.’ – Netanyahu
@Middle_East_Spectator
that didnt last long
This war will never end unless the US forces Israel to stop it (Or Iran destroys Israel enough for the Palestinians to free the entire country), and I doubt the Israelis will ever accept that.
It will end when the contradictions driving the war are changed, and right now Israel + US has neither the means nor the will to resolve them, and Iran may have the means but it does not have the will to escalate further.
This war will end in 2040
In 2028 Israel will have reached its expiration date.
2028 sounds like a scarily accurate number considering the knock on effects of the Hormuz blockade.
Whats for sure is that gas in seppoland will never go below $4 ever again.
History will call this the Groundhog Day War
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:
‘From our perspective, there are two sides in this MoU. On one side there is the United States and Israel, and on the other side there is Iran and Hezbollah.
An end to the war in Lebanon is an inseperable part of the complete end of the war in the region. And a complete end to the war includes a withdrawal of all the forces from occupied areas. Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the lands it occupied during this war, it won’t be considered a complete end to the war.
Any military attack by Israel against Lebanon from now on, or the continuation of Israeli occupation inside Lebanon, will definitely be considered a violation of the MoU.’
- Middle East Spectator
🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING!!! Bloomberg has published the text of the Memorandum of Understanding:
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Tehran, Washington, and their allies announce immediate and final end to war on ALL FRONTS.
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Tehran, Washington, and their allies pledge not to launch any hostile action and to refrain from threats.
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Tehran and Washington pledge to reach an agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable.
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The United States LIFTS the naval BLOCKADE on Iran immediately upon signing the MOU.
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The United States pledges to WITHDRAW ITS FORCES from the regoin within 30 days from the date of the final agreement.
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Iran works to resume ship movement within 30 days, taking into account its need to remove obstacles.
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Washington pledges to cooperate with its regional partners in rehabilitating and economically developing Iran. Washington commits to ENDING SANCTIONS on Iran according to a timeline agreed upon as part of the agreement.
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Iran reiterates that it will NEVER PRODUCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. Tehran and Washington agreed to discuss the fate of enriched materials and nuclear issues in a final agreement.
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Tehran and Washington agree to maintain the status quo until a final agreement is reached. Iran maintains its current nuclear program without Washington imposing sanctions or strengthening its forces.
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Washington pledges to EXEMPT IRANIAN OIL and related banking services from sanctions.
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Washington pledges to RELEASE FROZEN IRANIAN FUNDS and assets. After receiving guarantees for the implementation of a number of agreement provisions, the two countries begin final agreement negotiations.
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The final agreement between Washington and Tehran is adopted by a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
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Warning: Active Psyop.
The Esptein-backed Farsi language news channels have been telling the public of a plan by Ghalibaf and Trump and Netanyahu to overturn Khamenei. See my post earlier in the megathread.
Now we’re getting people telling the Iranian state media about a betrayal by the negotiators before getting cut off (see posts below in the megathread). With the Director of IRIB resigning because of these discussions (also below).
We have people talking on supposedly on behalf of Khamenei, who we should understand are not Khamenei.
We discuss here the potential for the MOU to create a rift in the Esptein axis, but they are trying to do the same thing with Iran-Lebanon and internal Iranian politics.
Today, with armed forces on the streets of Tehran - awaiting a potential security incident - it’s clear the Epstein Axis has a plan and is setting the groundwork for how the public should interpret the ensuing events.
- Please be mindful of the rumours you spread.
- Please think carefully about any action before acting.
- Please remind everyone of their responsibilities for mature and considerate actions.
- Please understand the incentives and the plans for creating division and erratic action for undermining society.
https://xcancel.com/buckadeath/status/2066920202387017825
Israeli outlet Israel Hayom reports, in a claim not yet echoed by other major outlets, that President Trump is weighing the dismissal of several senior administration figures who opposed the Iran deal, including Defense Secretary Hegseth and CIA Director Ratcliffe. “The argument has been settled. Those who opposed it may pay a personal price,” a senior U.S. official was quoted as saying about the behind-the-scenes turmoil. According to the report, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears to be safe for now.
Khamenei watching his son regime change the US
US intelligence agencies have de facto admitted that Iran won the war:
US intelligence agencies assess that from now on Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz at will, acquiring a powerful instrument of exerting pressure on the global economy, CNN said, citing sources.
“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait - a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” CNN cited a source familiar with the US intelligence assessments. “The war fundamentally altered Tehran’s thinking about leveraging similar tactics in the future.”
Pentagon AI chief: Musk’s Grok chatbot used to launch thousands of missiles at Iran
The Pentagon artificial intelligence chief on Monday said Elon Musk’s Grok chatbot is tantamount to national security in a sworn statement that noted xAI’s technology has been used throughout the Iran war.
Cameron Stanley, the chief digital and artificial intelligence officer for the Department of Defense, wrote that the chatbot “enabled U.S. forces to deploy over 2,000 munitions to 2,000 distinct targets within 96 hours during Operation Epic Fury, a testament to the greatly increased operational efficiency made possible by the Grok Gov Model.”
“Furthermore, it has tailored functionality to support military planning workflows, report synthesis and generation, predictive analytics for logistics and sustainment, red-teaming analysis of adversary positioning, personnel management, and medical supply lines,” Stanley wrote. “The Grok Gov Model offers features unique to XAI that are found in no other frontier AI model,” he added
Palestine Action terror ban is lawful, judges rule in victory for Home Office
spoiler
Palestine Action’s ban under terrorism laws will remain in place after the Court of Appeal ruled that the group’s proscription was lawful in a major win for the government.
Lady Chief Justice Baroness Carr told the Court of Appeal on Monday that the home secretary’s decision to ban the group under terror laws was “a justified and proportionate interference with individual rights”.
“The proscription decision was not unlawful”, she told the court, describing Palestine Action as a group that “overtly promotes unlawful violence amounting to terrorism”.
The rare five-judge panel found that the High Court was wrong when they previously ruled that the group’s proscription was unlawful.
The ban, which began on 5 July last year, made membership of, or support for, the direct action group a criminal offence punishable by up to 14 years in prison.
Baroness Carr said that it was “not accurate” to describe Palestine Action as “an ordinary protest group”, saying the group was “engaged in causing serious damage to property” and “presented a very real risk of injury not only to property but also to members of the public”. In their ruling, the Court of Appeal judges said Palestine Action “had little or nothing in common with the suffragettes or the anti-apartheid or Iran war protest groups”.
The Court of Appeal agreed with the Home Office on all grounds of appeal in a definitive victory for the government. Crucially the five judges said that they were “unable to identify” any alternative steps that the home secretary could have taken other than to proscribe Palestine Action under terror laws.
The group was banned by then-home secretary Yvette Cooper in July 2025 after members broke into RAF Brize Norton and vandalised jets to protest the war in Gaza. Lady Chief Justice Baroness Carr (second right) at the Royal Courts of Justice as she delivers the ruling by the Court of Appeal to ban Palestine Action Lady Chief Justice Baroness Carr (second right) at the Royal Courts of Justice as she delivers the ruling by the Court of Appeal to ban Palestine Action (PA)
The five-judge panel, Baroness Carr, the Master of the Rolls, Lord Justice Edis, Lord Justice Lewis and Lady Justice Whipple, found that Ms Cooper’s decision struck a “fair balance” between the need to safeguard national security and disrupting individuals’ rights to freedom of expression and assembly.
Responding to the ruling, Palestine Action co-founder Huda Ammori said she would “fight proscription all the way” to the Supreme Court and European Court of Human Rights to overturn “one of the most extreme attacks on free speech and the right to protest in modern British history”.
Home secretary Shabana Mahmood said the Palestine Action is “not an ordinary protest group”, and told the public that “this decision does not affect lawful protest in support of the Palestinian cause, which remains a fundamental democratic right”.
Outside the Royal Courts of Justice on Monday, some protesters gathered in support of Palestine Action were arrested, the Metropolitan Police said.
Akiko Hart, director of human rights charity Liberty, said Monday’s judgement “risks paving the way for current and future governments to use counter terror powers against non-terrorist groups.” She added: “This case has already had, and will continue to have, a chilling effect on protest and free speech - leaving many people too afraid to protest or say the wrong thing”.
The High Court had previously ruled that Ms Cooper’s decision to ban Palestine Action under terrorism legislation was unlawful. Three senior judges at the High Court concluded that only a small number of Palestine Action’s activities amounted to terrorism, and that the group’s acts had not crossed the high bar to make it a terrorist organisation.
The High Court said that Ms Cooper had failed to consider whether imposing a terror ban on Palestine Action was “proportionate” to the threat posed by the organisation. Justice Sharp wrote that, by doing this, Ms Cooper had made a “significant” error by failing to follow the Home Office’s own policy on proscription. A Palestinian flag is waved as people stand listening to the Court of Appeal ruling on June 15, 2026 A Palestinian flag is waved as people stand listening to the Court of Appeal ruling on June 15, 2026 (AFP/Getty)
However the Court of Appeal decided that the purpose of the Home Office policy was “not to limit or constrain the discretion of the home secretary”. They found that the home secretary “had the institutional competence and the democratic accountability to make the decision”.
Since the group’s proscription, hundreds of people have been arrested across multiple demonstrations after holding up placards and wearing badges and t-shirts declaring support for Palestine Action.
The Chief Magistrate has put a pause on the progress of criminal cases for those charged, with a review hearing due to take place on June 30. With the Court of Appeal ruling that Palestine Action’s ban was lawful, the criminal cases, of which there are more than 700, look set to go ahead.
Dozens of days of court time have already been allocated in the autumn and winter to hear the trials at magistrates’ courts around London, and if prosecutions go forward the courts will have to allocate more time to hear cases.
The Court of Appeal’s decision comes after four Palestine Action activists who mounted a “terrorist” raid on Israel-based defence firm Elbit Systems’ UK factory were jailed. People react as they listen to the court proceedings outside the Royal Courts Of Justice People react as they listen to the court proceedings outside the Royal Courts Of Justice (AFP/Getty)
Charlotte Head, 30, Samuel Corner, 23, Leona Kamio, 30, and Fatema Rajwani, 21, used sledgehammers and crowbars to destroy computers, drones and other equipment before police and security intervened.
Corner, a former student at Oxford, struck police officer Kate Evans twice on the back with a seven-pound sledgehammer, leaving her with a fractured spine.
Mr Justice Johnson gave the four prison sentences of between seven years and eight months and four years and eight months, with each defendant also spending an extra year on licence.
During the hearing on Friday, the judge ruled that the raid amounted to an “act of terrorism”, having been carried out to try to influence the UK government and intimidate a section of the public.
