immuredanchorite [he/him, any]

one thing that concerns me is that the US already has a base of operations at guantanamo

40% of their own oil is still short 60% -which is quite significant … also, just because they are extracting crude doesn’t mean that they have enough of the right kind of petroleum byproducts they need

I am just spitballing so take this with a grain of salt: It is likely because a petroyuan would create an international demand for the yuan. If i understand correctly, this would transform their currency from a sovereign national currency that can be used internally with a great deal of control over inflation and value- vs a de facto international reserve currency- which would theoretically open it up additionally to speculative extractive behavior, and may lead the the exporting of yuan as capital- thus giving an incentive for more extractive behavior from its own bourgeoisie. if their goal was to be another imperial project that would be fine- but I don’t think china wants that. That is why they likely prefer a bancor or using multinational exchange to settle accounts rather than switching the global reserve currency from usd to rmb

it is to muddy the waters and give plausible deniability to the people carrying out illegal orders, but i agree they actually dont care

I absolutely concede that I was wrong to say that it necessarily must be a prolonged conflict and apologize for implying that that would be a good thing. It is absolutely true that the violence of the US and israel is a tragedy and I am not in harms way. I think the war is unjust and the US ought to stop what it is doing and abandon its foreign military bases. And I am doing what I can to oppose the war and call for the US to end its wars. I also think Iran and the resistance are the ones who will decide how to defend themselves and what terms to set for the end of the conflict, and it is their place and not mine to decide that.

But I do support their resistance and I support Iran’s stated position that the only terms of peace that are possible is an arrangement that guarantees the US and Israel will never wage war in the region or against Iran again.

What will that look like, though? I think Iran has essentially said they are willing to fight for that new system and I don’t think the US will accept that until they have categorically lost. I think it will inevitably be prolonged because the US is unlikely to accept that until it threatens their ruling class’ grip on power or there is new political leadership that will acknowledge the war as a failure. Prolonged might also be a misnomer, as I don’t think the world economy can handle more than a few months of whatever is happening now.

I don’t think neoliberalism can be separated from the international subjugation of the periphery. Sure, the austerity and cruelty imposed on the working class in the core presents contradictions, but it is the neoliberal global financial system that ultimately allows for the contradictions in the core to be imposed without affecting necessary social reproduction required to support the ruling class. You cannot have one without the other because it is the realization of capitalism internationally and in the unipolar era

I fundamentally agree and feel the same discomfort. I guess my feeling is that that is the best possible outcome and the most realistic way it would play out. I also do not believe that if this conflict were to end quickly it would prevent those deaths in Lebanon and Iran. The terms Iran has given for an end to the conflict imo will mean that it will ultimately last either till mid terms, the end of trumps term, or with the US abandoning Israel and the petrodollar dominance. It is already existential for Iran and Lebanon, and the longer it drags on the more it can transition to an existential issue for the US ruling class. I am not cheering for the conflict to go on forever, but I think it is realistic that it will if the US is to lose catastrophically and uncategorically . I also think as an organizer in the core, openly or not, we ought to be embracing revolutionary defeatism as anti-imperialists- the defeat of the US ruling class will also mean defeating our shared class enemy. I think a short withdrawal by the US will be unlikely to end the repression and ultimately allow for them to strategically pivot to repression in the western hemisphere- including the core- whereas the fallout from a prolonged conflict will definitely affect working class people in the core (it inarguable is already been deleteriously affecting the periphery and has since 1950) I think Iran understands that and that is why they seem to be pursuing a strategy that reshapes the global system to some degree- honestly, before this conflict it was hard to be optimistic at all about what is transpiring in Gaza and western asia, it seemed like the genocide would expand unchecked and now the destruction of Israel seems like a possibility- even if unlikely

excellent points. Parenti was so clear-eyed. This is why, even though the US media doesn’t focus on it and it can be easy to gloss over, Iran attacking/threatening US/Israeli business investments in the region directly (OpenAI, Amazon, as well as Oil/Gas infrastructure propping up the GCC ruling classes in partnership with US oil companies) and dictating terms for the flow of nearly 20% of commerce (and likely a much much larger % of regional commerce) is incredibly damaging.

The loss of a 20B dollar investments with a few drones or missiles will hurt the ruling class more than the 1B dollars spend every day bombing Iran (on top of the billions of military assets the US built in the region over half a century or more). Right now the market isn’t reflecting this at all, or the looming catastrophe -the global economy beginning to experience food shortages and as the true deficit of oil usable is revealed that was only slowed by releasing strategic reserves. Qatari officials admitted they lost 20B on a 26B investment that will take six years to recover from. I read that some of the data centers being targeted are also nearly 20 billion investments on their own. We may be entering a period where those investments cannot be rebuilt and recouped without Iran’s approval- making the ruling class desire for a US victory more imperative, and ultimately more fraught.

I guess the question is ultimately whether the US ruling class won’t simply pocket more super profits from the regional collapse, or even get bailed out. It honestly seems likely if the global financial system doesn’t change more fundamentally

I sort of disagree about that being the absolute best case scenario… I think best case would be that Trump is bogged down in Iran for months (or even years) and loses so catastrophically that the US petrodollar system completely breaks and exacerbates a major economic meltdown in the US. Something like that could leave the US incapable of helping Israel if it even wanted to, while also changing the domestic political dynamic radically. A prolonged conflict- followed by economic crisis would also have the potential of shielding Cuba, and the rest of the world, from whatever bullshit they are planning next. It isn’t even that hard to see… if the demand for dollars begins to evaporate and the treasury bond market begins to collapse, the US would lose its infinite money glitch- and much of its expansive military budget with it… if they retreat too rapidly I could easily see them turning to cuba next to score another “easy” victory

Are there alternatives from Russia or China that the OSINT community can use? Is this only for US companies?

“officials say they had thought they were ‘besties for resties’ but have grown concerned they were in fact fake friends”

I see a lot of doomerism and criticism of China- maybe rightfully so- but to me, this sent a chill down my spine. I think they are putting this forward because they want to avoid nukes

Respect. He has entered a new era of political tulpamancy. There is no longer a regime to change or even a reality to contend with. Old visions and words are no longer meaningful, and what he once made forbidden has become permissible . What had transformed into spectacle is now only its simulacrum. We have reached the singularity of perfidy. All hail the butcher Trump and the blood-soaked end of the American Empire. JDPON Don has awoken and now negotiates on behalf of the resistance.

how are they even certain of that?

Maybe instead of nuclear strikes we are all going to suffer through a few Chernobyls … but instead of brave soviets that sacrifice themselves to stop a runaway reaction we get Israeli double-tap strikes on rescue workers

sounds like they didn’t appreciate G Max being the first power user to hit 1M upvotes or whatever

That seems possible but is there anywhere else than Jordan or Israel they can stage at this point (close enough to move in to Iran with any relative safety- not that they are entirely safe)

Thank you, I didn’t know that and I always appreciate your analysis. There is so much to learn its sort of dizzying

seize Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb to try extert control of the strait, and hand them over to the UAE later

I am sure Iran will be more than willing to hand over its sovereign land to the UAE- can’t see any potential issue with that. Guess its game over for the resistance

Wouldn’t it make more sense that they would invade a port city with an airport runway and establish some kind of “green zone” that they could try to hold and use to control the strait? Or is that more impossible because of the ease with which Iran can deploy troops? It just seems like hitting up an island where everyone on it is a sitting duck wouldn’t accomplish anything at all… The UAE and Bahraine are like, nearly the same distance, and the US can’t even keep those positions safe now, or is the idea just to steal the oil and have it continue to flow from Kharg island- denying Iran any profit? (in which case, I would see no reason for Iran not to just blow their own infrastructure up in the event that the US were to succeed)

This seems to me like a feint. They think they are so clever and will probably leak all sorts of plans that sound insane. What they will probably do is continue to drone on about peace talks, staling nuclear materials, taking Kharg island, and winding things down and then do something absurd, like trying to take the coast/ports along the straight of hormuz and threaten to nuke Tehran if Iran tries to stop them