more like thucydideez nuts, gottem

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.


As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.

preamble

Military news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you’re gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they’re so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I’ve stated before, I don’t personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don’t know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.

Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran’s new tolling mechanism.

China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it’s becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from “almost implausible” to “hilariously absurd”. Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


    • pierre_delecto [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      3 days ago

      The US made a big deal at one point about whether they were talking to “the right people” in Iran but it seems like Iran ought to be asking the same question now

      • tocopherol [any]@hexbear.net
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        Iranian leaders if you can read this the Hexbearites are actually the legitimate ruling party of the US, please send us Shaheds posthaste.

    • Parzivus [any]@hexbear.net
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      That deal was pretty fucking good for how little leverage the US and Israel have right now beyond terror bombing (if they even have the ammunition to do that!) and it’s still going to be sunk because Israel cannot hold back its bloodlust

      • Rojo27 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        3 days ago

        Honestly thats what I’m a bit confused by. The deal is supposed to include an end of fighting in Lebanon, but the fighting hasn’t even stopped during this current ceasefire thanks in large part to Israel’s bloodlust and expansionist mindset. Not sure how any of that would have worked if a deal had been reached.

        • djphdk [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          It wouldn’t have worked and won’t work if they do get an agreement that includes Lebanon. Terms will be reached and the leash will be pulled for 12-24 hours, or however long it takes for Trump’s team to some real profitable market manipulation. Then Israel will resume attacking Lebanon, the strait shuts again, and this dance starts over.

        • InexplicableLunchFiend [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          The US/Israel were hoping to do what they have done a dozen times before, call a ceasefire and then keep attacking while the other side can’t respond. It’s worked for them multiple times before with Gaza, and multiple times before Iran has not made it a sticking point and let it slide.

      • daniyeg [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        3 days ago

        US and israel blew half of their stockpile, not the entirety of it. they can still bomb the entirety of the grid, bridges, rail hubs, oil installations and refinery capacity and still have more to go. iranian leverage comes from the fact that iran can do the same to gulf countries and partially to israel, and that trump is exposed through corruption to the gulf countries’ interest. the scary part is israelis are in a manic state and literally do not care or are even slightly happy about the fact that the rest of the “stable” arab countries are being torn apart, and trump does not seem to give a shit about gulf countries or worse, he thinks it’ll be fine. it’s the madman theory in full effect but the US side seems to genuinely lack any moral conviction or even sanity.

    • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      [Edit - I rewrote it.] The Guardian, the NYT, and CNN make it seem that negotiations are going normally. It’s as if they keep forgetting Trump is president.

      The Guardian - Iran has indicated its reported understanding with the US to halt the regional war would include Lebanon, but Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Donald Trump had reaffirmed his support for Israel’s right “to defend itself against threats on all fronts, including in Lebanon”. Israel’s military chief, Lieut Gen Eyal Zamir, said that “we continue to strike Hezbollah across all dimensions … the security of civilians and the safety of our forces remain paramount”, a statement cited by AFP said.

    • daniyeg [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      again mediators misrepresent an agreement to both sides, before signing it gets leaked, that creates an intense sabotage window for blood demons, they successfully sabotage it appealing to the malignant narcissism of trump and his entire team. pakistanis have been a major source of misinformation, seemingly want to take credit for any peace deal. as to why i don’t know maybe someone more knowledgeable of pakistani politics can explain it.

      • And the dichotomy of Iran-USA cannot be resolved by any amount of mediation and diplomatic meddling. Iran’s material position on the gulf and as a military threat to Israel are in conflict with the decaying American empire; neither side can really move forward without dealing with the threat of the other, whether they want to fight it out or not.