Image is from this Bloomberg article, depicting world oil inventories plunging towards the operational floor at which pipelines and refineries cease operating, which is expected to occur in September at current rates.
A pretty short preamble below, in spoiler tags.
summary
The conflict continues to be kept at a relatively low level despite Iran’s fiery encounters with US destroyers. I think it’s only becoming increasingly obvious that the US is trying to cobble together some major clandestine operation mixing special forces, the air force, and naval destroyers to either seize Iranian uranium, take control of Iranian seaports, or both. Given a) how the Istafan op went, b) further Iranian preparations around sensitive sites, and c) a seeming strengthening of Iranian air defense around the Persian Gulf (multiple drones and manned aircraft have squawked emergency codes and potentially been shot down over the last few weeks), I find it difficult to imagine this operation fulfilling its objective, and even if did somehow work, why the removal of uranium would necessitate Iran ending the blockade and the war. On that note, I’ve seen reports that Iran is saying that if the US attacks their oil tankers again, they will resume firing on US military bases.
Additionally, Aragchi has stated that not only has Iran’s missile/launcher stockpiles not gone down from pre-conflict, it has actually increased by 20%. This is unsurprising given the total war that Iran is now in; all resources within reason must now be funnelling towards drone and missile production.
Atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon are continuing. The toll that FPV drones are taking on the common Zionist soldiery are quickly becoming apparent, as we are receiving ever-increasing amounts of footage of vehicles and gatherings of soldiers being struck by Hezbollah’s drones. The casualty situation is, as expected, being hidden, but any kind of serious occupation of even the border villages of southern Lebanon (let alone up to the Litani) seems unsustainable.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Not sure if this is appropriate for this thread so take it down if needed, but I figured this would be a good place to ask. I sent this same message to a well known user on this website who would already have someone like this typed out. Also sorry for asking y’all to do my research for me, I just can’t find much other than NATO propaganda.
One of my best friends (Lib on the edge of radicalization) is currently manic and just signed up for the Ukraine Foreign Legion. She’s a trans woman, so separate from the fact that she’d be serving NATO, this is extremely dangerous for her. For a while, she agreed with me on Russia-Ukraine, because I just pointed out that they’re all Nazis and showed her some proof. Unfortunately she drank the Western Kool-aid of “That was just Azov and they’re disbanded now”. I pulled up random articles and showed her pictures of Nazis in Ukraine in multiple completely unrelated articles and she just dismissed it as people not knowing they were Nazi symbols.
Would anybody mind sending me an old post they’ve made about the recent history of Nazis in Ukraine? Preferably one with some sources. I’m the only person she’ll listen to when she’s manic, so I feel strongly obligated to do my best to talk her out of this. I’ve been looking for stuff, but everything I’ve found has been pretty incomplete and can be dismissed by someone whose been so thoroughly indoctrinated by American media. And honestly, I don’t know enough about Russia-Ukraine to really do a thorough job explaining why she shouldn’t fight for Ukraine, I’d say what I’ve told her so far has been pretty surface level if I’m being honest.
I think you need to tell her in no uncertain terms that absolutely nobody, neither Ukrainian nor Russian troops, will treat her as a woman and that being treated as a woman in an active warzone almost always does not end well for the woman.
And also that she’s also a foreign mercenary to a manpower starved army, neither side in a war cares too much for their survivability.
Its basically the same line of reasoning people give for wanting to join the military because they feel ostracized and bullied in their current life.
You feel dehumanized and worthless presently and you want to overcome that by enlisting in an institution thats all about dehumanizing yourself and being forced to obey and submit to even more violent and abusive men and if you don’t they can do anything they want to you and no one will save you.
And now youre going to do it in a 4 year long warzone on the side which has been forcefully conscripting anyone it finds?! Literally doesnt make any sense.
Legitimately this is just a suicide attempt dressed up as something vaguely noble because self sacrifice is easier to sell to yourself than self defeat.
She has a very idealistic view of her role over there. She plans on going over as a combat medic so she can save lives of both Ukrainians and Russians. She also believes that the Geneva convention will protect her, being a combat medic.
There’s an insane amount of cope going through her head right now. It’s really hard to watch.
Like they torture people, seriously in a very bad way. There was this Ukrainian recruiter who sexually assaulted forced conscripts and got shot in Odessa, what do they think will they do if they get them? On both sides there are very violent transphobes.
Death or losing limbs is getting lucky. If you are a fem-appearing person (or not doesn’t really safeguard you regardless) in a war situation the chances of sexual assault is very high, almost guaranteed.
She’d be a foreign mercenary, even if both sides were respecting the geneva convention she wouldn’t be protected
Besides the Nazi part, going to an active war zone is a sure way to lose or limb or die. Access to trans healthcare on a battle line is also not guaranteed.
As far as I’m aware, Ukraine does not recognize trans people at all.
Basic food and essentials are also not guaranteed from the reports on the Ukrainian side unless you drone strike for points.
your friend is imperialist, sorry for your loss (like i’m sorry, jose marti brigades existed for 50 years, but no, the urge to kill can only be satiated by killing enemies of empire instead of doing volunteer work (i’m leaving possibility of joining pflp aside, obviously too lib for that))
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andriy_Biletsky
this is the guy she would be working for, stellar person all round
I mean if she joins Ukraine, she would functionally be an imperialist, but I really don’t see her the same as most people gung ho to join Ukraine. First off, she’s very idealistic and wants to go over as a combat medic, with intention of saving anybody on the battlefield, Russian or Ukrainian. Also very vocal about her support for Palestine, even before Oct. 7 made it a mainstream political issue. She also refuses to join the US military because she understands that the US is imperialist and sees America as one of the worst evils this planet has ever seen.
She was raised in Norse Paganism (which, yikes, but I’ve seen her leave pretty much all of her Norse Pagan groups for being Nazis, so I know she has some conscious) but something in that religion says something like “If you can fight but choose not to, old age will bring you no peace”
I’ve known her for quite a while. She’s on a fixed disability income and normally doesn’t even have enough money to feed herself, but she’ll donate what little she has to Palestinians. I really think she’s just drank too much of the Kool Aid from the western propaganda machine and is manic. Because she agreed with me on Ukraine until like a week ago, this is really out of nowhere.
How is she able to afford the trip to ukraine and all the gear and stuff?
I don’t know too many specifics, but I’m assuming Ukraine is paying for it. The one piece of gear she was told to bring was ballistic glasses, because she has horrible vision, but she’s on Medicaid so I’m sure she can find some her insurance covers
Westerners really showing their face when Ukraine war is considered more horrific than every war else. Doesn’t help that the vaguely progressive has made Ukraine into their sacred cow.
So anyway here is a post from Azov’s instagram from three weeks ago (april 25 - https://t.me/azov_brigade_ngu/1277 translated via yandex)
and from azov’s website (yandex translated)
i was reading about this the other day because some other group had been interviewed in the guardian, and they linked to azov on their telegram and instagram pages
i hope your friend is okay
I was gonna say, I’m pretty sure azov never actually disbanded they were just incorporated into the Ukrainian military.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSIraw4Jclw (Mines in Azov, a woman explains she gets more vacations out of the country because her husband is in Azov)
Azov has become the Ukrainian marvel avengers, let alone legitimized in the civil society.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
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Yeah, her idea is that even if the Ukrainians are Nazis, she believes in national self-determination, and other countries don’t need to get involved in another countries politics. There’s a lot wrong with that mindset, but after years of frying my brain on downers I’m a lot less well spoken than I used to be
RIP. Foreigners volunteering to fight for the most intolerant people on earth in a war set-up and initiated by their overlords in the name of self-defense and self-determination is the most lib brained thing ever.
Does she believe in national self-determination for the regions that wanted to leave Ukraine?
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I’d do the same if I saw someone preparing to jump: Pull them away from the edge.
What your friend wants to do is paramount to suicide.
Good luck talking her out of it. Even if she can ignore/excuse all the Nazi shit Ukraine is involved in (real
energy) volunteering to go to Ukraine is just a long-form suicide. Whatever illusions/misconceptions she’s under will be brutally swept away once she’s in the country.
Anecdotally someone from my parents church went to Ukraine to volunteer as a paramedic behind the lines. He was dead about a month later, his parents never received any kind of explanation. I don’t think his body was ever returned. I don’t know if he lied to his parents about being “behind the lines” or if he was pressganged once he got their but either way he didn’t last long.
Yeah she has the same sort of idealism. She wants to be a combat medic and wants to save lives. Which, I ultimately find less off-putting than someone who wants to go over there for ideological reasons.
She has 20/400 vision, so I’m a lot less concerned about what exactly she’d be doing over there, she wouldn’t be able to do any real harm. More concerned about her safety because it’s all just a horrible idea
Bad vision won’t stop her from being used as cannon fodder, especially since she’ll be a foreign mercenary. She has to understand that she will be harmed and there is a very high chance she will be killed.
In the case of the guy from my parents church I highly suspect he was press ganged once in Ukraine, I don’t think people, foreign mercs especially, get much choice in the matter once they’re there.
https://hexbear.net/post/8374936
If she’s having a manic episode, getting her to just “wait it out” before doing anything too major would probably be your best bet. You probably won’t be able to convince her to change her mind until she comes down. Maybe tell her about minimum fitness standards or something before she can sign up, and try to get her to spend the next few months “preparing” by training and working out, get her to fold ideas into her manic delusion: that she needs to achieve X goal (like a certain level of fitness) before they’ll let her sign up.
When steering a manic person who has made up their mind already, you don’t fight against their delusions directly, you get them to incorporate new ideas into the delusion, that she’ll need special training or something before they’ll take her, so she spends her time and energy on that and then when her manic episode ends she’s still at home and not in a warzone on the other side of the world. Just try and slow her down enough to buy her time to realise this is a manic delusion.
You can’t reason her out of it when she’s manic, you just have to distract her long enough that she figures it out on her own. (As a side note, as someone with manic delusions myself, a lot of advertising for the military is designed to target people in a very particular state of mind where they feel listless and directionless and gets them to sign up ASAP, so that when they come down, they’re already signed up and can’t get out of it. Sounds like your friend has been preyed upon by something like that.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNZwLA869Sc
Videos from Mauriupol’s translation of this documentary is great for being a wake up call. If your friend is a G@mer then maybe she’ll enjoy the disco Elysium style transitions.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
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Removed by mod