• legit i was just thinking this. the headline reminded me of that line about how empires collapse inward from the periphery.

        so the natsec apparatus having the door slammed on its junk trying to reassert itself over the largest oil reserves in LatAm would be on brand as hell.

        now combine it with the constellation of the federal shutdown / uncertainty over troop pay + the AI bubble bursting taking out some big banks at the knees (another uncertain bail out?) just while some have extended loans to the randroid Milei and all bets are off. personally, if SNAP craters, i think the most populated state with the worst buffer and social support network is Florida, which is home to some pretty significant military bases in terms of projecting forces over LatAm. that’s a novel stew.

        i was thinking earlier about how the resilience of the system here can probably weather 1-2 big problems at a time, but this administration seems content to not resolve them while pretending they don’t matter. so its pretty possible that we can enter a scenario where multiple structural problems interact to create a complex scenario that doesn’t have a linear solution.

        and lets be real, i am not seeing anything going on with this administration that would imply they can respond competently to a novel problem. they have like one play (attack immigrants and minorities) and i dunno how much harder they can push that button before it breaks.

        • sexywheat [none/use name]@hexbear.net
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          16
          ·
          4 months ago

          its pretty possible that we can enter a scenario where multiple structural problems interact to create a complex scenario that doesn’t have a linear solution.

          nicholson-yes

        • jack [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          8
          ·
          4 months ago

          so its pretty possible that we can enter a scenario where multiple structural problems interact to create a complex scenario that doesn’t have a linear solution.

          lenin-laugh

      • mx_oceanwater_they_them [none/use name]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        14
        ·
        edit-2
        4 months ago

        This reminds me of the sinking of the Moskva in the black sea smh, spooky similar.

        Side note: Russia and the US are eerily similar as well but also opposites in some ways (huge country by area, low population density yet urbanized, huge expensive army, …).

      • coolusername@lemmy.ml
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        4 months ago

        I want ansar allah to do it though. American exceptionalism as CIA propaganda would be crushed immediately

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      edit-2
      4 months ago

      They have some, but all relatively short ranged. The biggest threat to US ships would be Kh-31 supersonic cruise missiles launched by Venezuelan Su-30s, with a maximum range of 38-60 nautical miles (nmi)/70-110km. But I highly doubt that the Venezuelan air force gets off of the ground in the event of war. Even if they do do get off the ground, the SM-6 missile (launched from AEGIS equipped ships or F/A-18s) has a maximum range estimated in excess of 200 nmi/370km, and the AIM-120D (launched from F-35s, F-22s and F/A-18s, as well as other fighters) has an estimated maximum range of 90-100nmi/160-180km, and the AIM-120D-3 in excess of that. Venezuelan aircraft are far out ranged by US anti aircraft missiles.

      Other than that they have some Iranian patrol boats with Iranian versions of C-701s, subsonic cruise missiles with a range of 20nmi/37km. They may also have a single frigate (and maybe some patrol boats) in service with Otomat Mk2 or C-802 subsonic cruise missiles, which have a range of around 100nmi/180km. But that’s their longest range anti ship missiles. Again, vastly out ranged by US anti ship missiles or aircraft. AGM-158C LRASM has a range in excess of 500nmi/925km, SM-6 can also be used in an anti ship role, then there’s AGM-84 H/K SLAM-ER with a range over 155nmi/270km. AGM-84 Harpoon between 70-120nmi (130-220km) depending on if surface or air launched. That’s not mentioning that US aircraft could just drop laser guided JDAMs or SDBs on Venezuelan ships.

        • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          ·
          edit-2
          4 months ago

          I’ve looked at it a bit, but the big issue is that it uses public estimations for the capabilities of systems. That makes perfect sense of course, but it’s very different to real world performance. Unless you can put your own values in for system performance (which militaries using similar software do for wargaming), it’s more of a strategy game vs a predictor of real world performance.

          • peeonyou [he/him]@hexbear.net
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            edit-2
            4 months ago

            I think you can modify all that stuff iirc, but I don’t know if it would be worth the hassle. There’s so much stuff there.