I thought this twitter thread was interesting:

Why Washington wants Maduro out:

The U.S. campaign to break Venezuela isn’t about “restoring democracy.” It’s about shutting down a sovereign state that can disrupt oil flows, bypass the dollar, and host adversaries three hours from Miami.

Gulf Coast refineries are tuned to heavy sour crude, Venezuela’s specialty. After Trump revoked Chevron’s waiver in February 2025, Treasury granted a restricted license on July 30, following a July 24 Reuters report that authorizations were imminent.

The license bars proceeds from reaching the Maduro government. U.S. imports resumed on August 21 under those constraints. A sovereign Caracas that can meter Orinoco flows still wields a price lever, sanctions mute it, but don’t erase it.

Caracas has already tested non-dollar lifelines, oil-for-fuel swaps, yuan- and euro-denominated settlement, and off-ramps through third countries. In 2025, Venezuela has kept lobbying for BRICS+ association after Brazil’s 2024 veto.

If a sanctioned mid-tier petrostate can keep selling without the dollar, the sanctions machine loses aura. Breaking Maduro is message traffic to the rest of OPEC+ and BRICS-adjacent capitals: settle outside our rails and we will bankrupt your state or replace your cabinet.

The court-supervised auction of PDV Holding, CITGO’s parent, is deep into 2025 bidding and recommendations to satisfy $19B in creditor claims. Regime change would guarantee corporate custody of Orinoco Belt reserves and downstream infrastructure without legal friction. “Anti-corruption” becomes the solvent for ownership transfer.

Washington cannot tolerate an allied logistics node for adversaries a three-hour flight from Miami. Caracas has run refinery rehab, fuel swaps, and technical assistance with sanctioned states; it hosts political and commercial channels that punch through U.S. veto power.

The 2025 SOUTHCOM posture statement focuses on countering “malign influence” and notes the Guyana–Venezuela flashpoint. Overthrow Maduro, and you sever those corridors, re-impose inspection rights on ports and airfields, and re-install U.S. ISR reach across the Caribbean.

In February 2025, the U.S. designated Tren de Aragua a Foreign Terrorist Organization. In March, the administration invoked the Alien Enemies Act to remove suspected members without standard due process.

Roughly 250 Venezuelans were sent to El Salvador’s CECOT supermax under the program before courts curtailed it; reporting indicates El Salvador received around $20,000 per detainee per year.

In May, a declassified National Intelligence Council memo assessed the Maduro regime “probably does not” direct TdA’s operations in the U.S., a sharp split between intelligence and policy.

In May 2025, the International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela to refrain from holding elections in the disputed Essequibo region. ExxonMobil’s Stabroek expansion and U.S.–Guyana defense cooperation continue in parallel, insulating Guyana’s ramp from Venezuelan contestation.

The Arco Minero, gold, coltan, rare metals, gives Caracas hard-currency elasticity under sanctions. U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan gold date back to 2018–2019, and the UAE remains a major laundering hub per 2025 reporting. A friendly government would “formalize” the belt, which is code for foreign custody of extraction and export.

Venezuela still runs Telesur and state-backed media partnerships across Latin America. Overthrow resets the signal environment: licenses revoked, stations defunded, embassies realigned, and every future crisis reframed through Washington’s lens, no more competing broadcast from Caracas into the region.

If Venezuela can outlast 26 years of sanctions, sabotage, coup attempts, and still retain its oil lever, others learn the blueprint. If it falls, the lesson is simpler: nationalize at scale, and your cabinet gets replaced.

That is the real objective, code a rule into the system: sovereignty that interferes with U.S. energy, currency, or logistics lanes is a temporary condition.

That’s the stack. Energy discipline, dollar hegemony, asset capture, hemispheric denial, domestic optics, Esequibo insulation, mineral custody, narrative blackout, and exemplary punishment. Everything else is cover noise.