There won’t be. For there to be a civil war there has to be a legitimate resistance movement that poses an actual threat to the state, and the US left is so dysfunctional and disorganized thanks to decades of political manipulation by the state that it knows there is no real threat to their power. It’s why they are pulling the mask off. They are comfortable in knowing they will face no legitimate resistance.
I think you’re a bit too doomer. The rise of socialism and communism among the younger generations in the US is being directly contested by NSPM-7 and other COINTELPRO style attacks. The capitalist state and class recognize that there is a very real threat to their power that looms, and so they are trying to strangle the baby as it is beginning to walk.
While I try to stray from the doomer aspect of this conversation I will say what “we” (the American working class) would be going up against the literal strongest military ever created. Think about the realistic aspects of either a second civil war or a Second American Revolution.
You have:
A. A military that wouldn’t think twice about hollowing out entire cities (your favorite institutions, homes, etc) and killing men, women and children. Again, the strongest apparatus for systemically killing people and destroying infrastructure ever created.
B. an incredibly decentralized, politically misguided and complacent Working Class that has no interest in liberation politics, no organized party or party lines or party demands whatsoever (DSA wilt NOT be a revolutionary vanguard liberals please get this thru your heads) and most importantly outnumbered in personnel, weapons, time, resources, and more.
I know it’s a bit “doomer”, but I try to live realistically. I been American long enough to know when this theoretical “second civil war” hits, your neighbors won’t take up arms to help you. They will stockpile resources for their children and keep them away from you (and me): the side that in their eyes “caused civil unrest, destroyed the economy and status quo (therefor our way of life), and are responsible for the dangerous and controversial communist uprising that will never work and authoritarianism dictatorship” blah blah blah.
Best bet today seems learn Portuguese fast and move to BRASIL
Regarding point A, the statesian working class far outnumbers the statesian military. The Black Lives Matter movement absolutely terrified the bourgeoisie, because even in the face of that, numbers have power.
Regarding point B, this is not static. Socialists have been steadily working to improve the level of class consciousness in the US Empire, and this is having slow and steady results. It’s why there is a dialectical reaction to these new developments.
The task is difficult, but becoming increasingly possible year over year.
Regarding point B, this is not static. Socialists have been steadily working to improve the level of class consciousness in the US Empire, and this is having slow and steady results. It’s why there is a dialectical reaction to these new developments.
In this context, what is the clearest example of a dialectical reaction? I assume that the targeting and absorption of BLM and heightened class-based economic warfare are examples…?
NSPM-7 is a big one! There is a surge in state repression against communists, as communists are waking up from their near-century of slumber in the Empire. Groups like PSL and even the DSA are rising, and as a consequence the state is enacting repression against them. BLM was very nearly revolutionary, but the organizing was crushed early on so as to become direction less, despite having mass momentum.
I admire the revolutionary optimism but I stay very hesitant to rely on it in the imperial core. BTW I in no way intended to call you a liberal, just those who read my message that apply.
Black Lives Matter is a good example but it was also decentralized and while semi effective, the bourgeois dems sent in the military and all that work was more or less undone. What did we get out of that, one single conviction?
Most Americans wouldn’t even begin to know how to start a union, or a rent strike. We are simply not ready for the large scale unease that a civil war would cause. We have the numbers but not the discipline that those numbers need to succeed. Otherwise you’re just sending disenfranchised Americans into its own meat grinder.
I do believe we would see mass conversion over to leftist politics but at this point it’s all conjecture and I would only hope that would come swiftly and with principle, because like the Minneapolis BLM protests and Capital Hill Autonomous Zone and pro Palestinian Student encampments, these mass movements are too decentralized to function as a safe vanguard for the working class.
Idk if you’re from my neck of the woods but I live in Minnesota, I go to the Cities about once a month when it’s nice out (not as much lately but my point is I love Minneapolis/St. Paul) and I saw first hand how much of our population is real and who was hiding scared during those protests. The general sentiment around Minneapolis citizens taking a modicum of power back, was not positive on even the average person in Minnesota. Even tho it was completely justified.
I know most of what I’m saying is anecdotal, and I sure as fuck hope I’m wrong. But the way I see it (Like it or not) is that we need a principled party and legal vanguard that are vetted, trusted and held accountable for any wrongdoing and that’s just for starters.
The BLM movement was very organized early on, but was destroyed quickly by the state. It then descended into decentralized mass momentum with no clear direction. We absolutely need a vanguard, and I firmly believe that we are getting closer to one with the resurgence of Marxism-Leninism ideologically in the empire. It isn’t today, but it could be tomorrow.
You speak with an elegance that makes me pretty optimistic, not gonna lie. I do feel inclined to agree, my only point of contention is my fear that (at this stage of capitalism) any and all centralized, principled vanguard will be quickly and effectively subdued by the state, as you mentioned with BLM. Violence is a powerful tool that can quickly separate those who are ready to fight and those who aren’t.
I know a lot of people who are starting families and focusing on their kids, most people I know in fact are either already parents or planning to be, you won’t have much time to sacrifice to organizing with a family. Plus, you’re going to have to put your own physical safety on the line in favor of your kids. A lot of people simply won’t and will comply out of fear for their families lives.
Whether in the long term we’re getting closer I honestly don’t know, but I am willing to believe. This type of conversation is way more refreshing to me than the infinite weekly posts of some random one dude that’s like, super totally sure he could actually be the next revolutionary leader and he’s ready to do it all tonight. lol. Thanks for indulging.
If there is a 2nd American Civil War, we can do Lula a favor and handle this piece of fascist trash.
There won’t be. For there to be a civil war there has to be a legitimate resistance movement that poses an actual threat to the state, and the US left is so dysfunctional and disorganized thanks to decades of political manipulation by the state that it knows there is no real threat to their power. It’s why they are pulling the mask off. They are comfortable in knowing they will face no legitimate resistance.
The fall of the Iron Curtain came suddenly, without warning or any significant resistance. It just happened, and everybody jumped on it.
I think you’re a bit too doomer. The rise of socialism and communism among the younger generations in the US is being directly contested by NSPM-7 and other COINTELPRO style attacks. The capitalist state and class recognize that there is a very real threat to their power that looms, and so they are trying to strangle the baby as it is beginning to walk.
While I try to stray from the doomer aspect of this conversation I will say what “we” (the American working class) would be going up against the literal strongest military ever created. Think about the realistic aspects of either a second civil war or a Second American Revolution.
You have:
A. A military that wouldn’t think twice about hollowing out entire cities (your favorite institutions, homes, etc) and killing men, women and children. Again, the strongest apparatus for systemically killing people and destroying infrastructure ever created.
B. an incredibly decentralized, politically misguided and complacent Working Class that has no interest in liberation politics, no organized party or party lines or party demands whatsoever (DSA wilt NOT be a revolutionary vanguard liberals please get this thru your heads) and most importantly outnumbered in personnel, weapons, time, resources, and more.
I know it’s a bit “doomer”, but I try to live realistically. I been American long enough to know when this theoretical “second civil war” hits, your neighbors won’t take up arms to help you. They will stockpile resources for their children and keep them away from you (and me): the side that in their eyes “caused civil unrest, destroyed the economy and status quo (therefor our way of life), and are responsible for the dangerous and controversial communist uprising that will never work and authoritarianism dictatorship” blah blah blah.
Best bet today seems learn Portuguese fast and move to BRASIL
Regarding point A, the statesian working class far outnumbers the statesian military. The Black Lives Matter movement absolutely terrified the bourgeoisie, because even in the face of that, numbers have power.
Regarding point B, this is not static. Socialists have been steadily working to improve the level of class consciousness in the US Empire, and this is having slow and steady results. It’s why there is a dialectical reaction to these new developments.
The task is difficult, but becoming increasingly possible year over year.
Thank you for being grounded yet optimistic, I appreciate your analysis o7
o7
In this context, what is the clearest example of a dialectical reaction? I assume that the targeting and absorption of BLM and heightened class-based economic warfare are examples…?
Thank you for your study and writing!
NSPM-7 is a big one! There is a surge in state repression against communists, as communists are waking up from their near-century of slumber in the Empire. Groups like PSL and even the DSA are rising, and as a consequence the state is enacting repression against them. BLM was very nearly revolutionary, but the organizing was crushed early on so as to become direction less, despite having mass momentum.
Thanks! I had heard mentions of that memo, but hadn’t read on it…
You definitely should, it’s modern COINTELPRO.
I admire the revolutionary optimism but I stay very hesitant to rely on it in the imperial core. BTW I in no way intended to call you a liberal, just those who read my message that apply.
Black Lives Matter is a good example but it was also decentralized and while semi effective, the bourgeois dems sent in the military and all that work was more or less undone. What did we get out of that, one single conviction?
Most Americans wouldn’t even begin to know how to start a union, or a rent strike. We are simply not ready for the large scale unease that a civil war would cause. We have the numbers but not the discipline that those numbers need to succeed. Otherwise you’re just sending disenfranchised Americans into its own meat grinder.
I do believe we would see mass conversion over to leftist politics but at this point it’s all conjecture and I would only hope that would come swiftly and with principle, because like the Minneapolis BLM protests and Capital Hill Autonomous Zone and pro Palestinian Student encampments, these mass movements are too decentralized to function as a safe vanguard for the working class.
Idk if you’re from my neck of the woods but I live in Minnesota, I go to the Cities about once a month when it’s nice out (not as much lately but my point is I love Minneapolis/St. Paul) and I saw first hand how much of our population is real and who was hiding scared during those protests. The general sentiment around Minneapolis citizens taking a modicum of power back, was not positive on even the average person in Minnesota. Even tho it was completely justified.
I know most of what I’m saying is anecdotal, and I sure as fuck hope I’m wrong. But the way I see it (Like it or not) is that we need a principled party and legal vanguard that are vetted, trusted and held accountable for any wrongdoing and that’s just for starters.
The BLM movement was very organized early on, but was destroyed quickly by the state. It then descended into decentralized mass momentum with no clear direction. We absolutely need a vanguard, and I firmly believe that we are getting closer to one with the resurgence of Marxism-Leninism ideologically in the empire. It isn’t today, but it could be tomorrow.
You speak with an elegance that makes me pretty optimistic, not gonna lie. I do feel inclined to agree, my only point of contention is my fear that (at this stage of capitalism) any and all centralized, principled vanguard will be quickly and effectively subdued by the state, as you mentioned with BLM. Violence is a powerful tool that can quickly separate those who are ready to fight and those who aren’t.
I know a lot of people who are starting families and focusing on their kids, most people I know in fact are either already parents or planning to be, you won’t have much time to sacrifice to organizing with a family. Plus, you’re going to have to put your own physical safety on the line in favor of your kids. A lot of people simply won’t and will comply out of fear for their families lives.
Whether in the long term we’re getting closer I honestly don’t know, but I am willing to believe. This type of conversation is way more refreshing to me than the infinite weekly posts of some random one dude that’s like, super totally sure he could actually be the next revolutionary leader and he’s ready to do it all tonight. lol. Thanks for indulging.