Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.
As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents
Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:
52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents
1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME
El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!
Alaska - 74% Reporting - D+0.29 (637 votes!)
(Dan Sullivan^1 47.88%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.68%)
Alaska margin has not changed now in several days, and they can’t activate the ranked choice voting until ALL the initial ballots are counted. Expect this all to change dramatically when the lower tier candidates are elimimated and 2nd, 3rd, 4th place votes are counted.
Mississippi - 97% Reporting - D+0.27 (2,574 votes!)
The lead for the Democrat has been slowly increasing since election day. Mississippi has no function for recounting. Election results must be reported to the state by Friday, 11/13.
Chart Follows:
| State | Current | Occupant | Status | D Cand | R Cand | Polling 10/18 | Outcome | Polling Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Democratic | Hickenlooper | Safe D | John Hickelooper | Mark Baisley | Called D | ||
| Delaware | Democratic | Coons | Safe D | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | Called D | ||
| Georgia | Democratic | Ossoff | Safe D | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | Called D | ||
| Illnois | Democratic | Durbin | Safe D | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | Called D | ||
| Massachusetts | Democratic | Markey | Safe D | Ed Markey | John Deaton | Called D | ||
| New Hampshire | Democratic | Shaheen | Safe D | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | Called D | ||
| New Jersey | Democratic | Booker | Safe D | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | Called D | ||
| New Mexico | Democratic | Luja | Safe D | Ben Ray Luján | Larry Marker | Called D | ||
| Oregon | Democratic | Merkley | Safe D | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | Called D | ||
| Rhode Island | Democratic | Reed | Safe D | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | Called D | ||
| Virginia | Democratic | Warner | Safe D | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | Called D | ||
| Minnesota | Democratic | Smith | D | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Called D | ||
| North Carolina | Republican | Tillis | D | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
| Alabama | Republican | Tuberville | Safe R | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | Called R | ||
| Arkansas | Republican | Cotton | Safe R | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | Called R | ||
| Florida | Republican | Moody | Safe R | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Called R | ||
| Idaho | Republican | Risch | Safe R | Withdrawn | Jim Risch | Called R | ||
| Kentucky | Republican | McConnell | Safe R | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | Called R | ||
| Louisiana | Republican | Cassidy | Safe R | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | Called R | ||
| Mississippi | Republican | Hyde-Smith | Safe R | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Scott Colom | R+9 | ||
| Montana | Republican | Daines | Safe R | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | Called R | ||
| Nebraska | Republican | Ricketts | Safe R | Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | Called R | R Momentum since 10/1 | |
| Oklahoma | Republican | Armstrong | Safe R | N’Kiyla Thomas | Kevin Hern | Called R | ||
| South Dakota | Republican | Rounds | Safe R | Brian Bengs | Mike Rounds | Called R | ||
| Tennessee | Republican | Hagerty | Safe R | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | Called R | ||
| West Virginia | Republican | Capito | Safe R | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | Called R | ||
| Wyoming | Republican | Lummis | Safe R | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | Called R | ||
| South Carolina | Republican | Graham | R | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | D FLIP | R Momentum since 8/29 | |
| Alaska | Republican | Sullivan | Tossup | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | D+3 | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 8/4 |
| Iowa | Republican | Ernst | Tossup | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 9/10 |
| Kansas | Republican | Marshall | Tossup | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 10/1 |
| Maine | Republican | Collins | Tossup | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | COLLINS CONCEDES | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 7/6 |
| Michigan | Democratic | Peters | Tossup | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | Called D | Possible R Flip | D Momentum since 8/17 |
| Ohio | Republican | Husted | Tossup | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/2 |
| Texas | Republican | Cornyn | Tossup | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
Voted in my tossup race yesterday; in person. This is the easy part; the cleanup we have waiting will take decades.
The fumigation alone will take decades. 😉
FiftyPlusOne claiming that Democrats have 80% chance of winning the senate, with the top probabilities being Democrats with 53, 52, 54, 51, or 55 seats. After 55 comes 50 seats (aka: Republican win after JD Vance’s tiebreaker vote).
I dunno what has changed in the past weeks, but we’ve gone from ~52 seats “best case” for Democrats to ~53 seats “average case” and 55 seats “best case”.
I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.
I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.
If it’s 51/49, Fetterman is definitely permanently switching parties and giving both the tiebreaker to Vance and control of the Senate to the GOP.
Dems have already flipped 6 seats in the Senate alone.
And it looks like Republicans might lose a couple to independents.
7 - Collins just conceded.
Huzzah!
I’m seeing 53 confirmed seats with two more looking good. Fingers crossed!
And 213 House seats confirmed so far! Only 5 more to go, and 96 races yet to be called.
What is this, hope?
Do you think we have enough to impeach and remove now, you think?
Maybe Hegseth. The Iran war is clearly very unpopular and Trump is likely looking for a scapegoat. If Trump can be led to believe that sacrificing Hegseth is for Trump’s benefit, we can start with that.
Going for Trump directly seems like a political mistake. There’s a lot of good we can do by going for some easier impeachments first. And with some smarts, we can play the Republicans against each other and weaken them before we move in for something bigger.
Besides, removing Trump only puts JD Vance in charge. Its a lot of effort and high risk, without a big gain. Removal of Hegseth on the other hand is likely the best path we have towards making peace with Iran, no joke.
Honestly, he’s purged the pentagon so badly that whoever takes over for Hegseth is still going to rubber-stamp whatever he asks for. I say we finally impeach and remove Trump and let the chips fall where they may. Some republicans may even save face by voting to convict.
Attacking the easier targets would build momentum and also capitalize upon the Republican infighting.
Maybe so. I just don’t want the public to think it’s the only thing we’re here to do. Let’s get the big thing out of the way and then get on with governing and preventing these mistakes from ever happening again.
COLLINS CONCEDES!!!
Was her brow furrowed when she conceded?
I hope she learned her lesson.
FINALLY.
I sure do hate my state of Florida. They choose the worse outcomes everytime rewarding a woman who literally stole from them weak af.
To be fair, there is a lot of cheating going on down there. They’re changing election locations last minute and then not posting clearly where the new ones are. I’m sure there are many more fucked up things going down.
I’ve started using FiftyPlusOne for polling aggregation. It’s a spiritual successor to 538, but if anyone has a better option, glad to be informed:
I’ve been using Pollsmax. It’s pretty good. Of course after every election I am reminded that there will always be surprises and I need to stop treating these sites as if they were a crystal ball
Very interesting, thanks. Boy, the difference between their polling and forecast is pretty stark. They are giving huge incumbency advantages to existing GOP senate seats, for example. Polling is D53-R47, and forecast is D48-R52, a 5-seat chamber control swing.
I don’t know if that makes them more or less credible. GOP has outperformed in the past, and I’m very wary of vibes-based expectations, but Maine for example has Collins winning despite (1) their own average polling showing Jackson up by 2.7%, and three of four recent polls by 4%; (2) the last Senate seat going democratic; (3) the last presidential election going democratic; (4) the last governorship going democratic.
Makes it it feel like their forecasting formula is putting a pretty big thumb on the scale, but then again, every time I’ve allowed myself optimism in the last 10 years of elections, I’ve been disappointed.
I was hearing about a South Carolina poll today predicting that 30% of the black vote is going to Darline Graham, which just seems absurd to me…
Yeah, that would be something.
I think the forecasts are useful thought experiments, but it seems if you dig deep enough in the methodologies, eventually you always get to a priori premises and assumptions that can’t be supported except by intuition. It would be helpful for there to be a graphic map of those methodologies with “here be dragons” to denote when we’ve stopped using data. In any case, I’m holding onto some hope for this election despite those forecasts, but guarding it like a caveman would a fire.
Republicans are in panic mode over SC
Pollsmax sounds suspiciously like Newsmax. I would be wary.
It’s a spiritual successor to 538, but if anyone has a better option, glad to be informed:
I would argue that the actual successor to 538 is Nate Silver’s substack. You know, the guy who founded 538: https://www.natesilver.net/
There is also Galen Druke’s podcast/substack, where he continues the spirit of the 538 podcast directly: https://www.gdpolitics.com/
And then there is the Still Counting podcast which might as well be titled “The 538 podcast, but ABC still owns that name, so we called it something else”: https://www.youtube.com/@StillCountingPodcast
IT’S BEEN CALLED BY AP!
Dems took back the Senate!
Great! I’m waiting for Michigan and Mississippi now.
Holy shit, I didn’t even notice ol Mississip. It was looking red all night but I just checked after you pointed it out. Colom is up by 28 votes with 97% ballots counted so far…
That is the definition of neck-and-neck.
And yeah Michigan is the main reason I’m still up right now (that and the House!). It’s been tight all night but El-Sayed has been edging ahead for the past hour or so! 76% of the count is in so far
Yup! Only a matter of “By How Much?”
There is still a chance of 1 Republican flip, not enough to make a difference, but still possible.
Someone else just pointed out Mississippi might flip! I just checked and the Dem is up by 28 votes
This is so exciting!
Lol they might lose the Mississippi Senate race. Fucking MISSISSIPPI. That plus Georgia and Texas? Holy shit the GOP fucked up badly. 😂
Mississippi was marked “Safe R” with a 9 point margin, which was even more “safe” for them than Texas. That is absolutely insane.
It’s so damn close. Any idea when the final votes are counted there?
Stella Parton, sister to Dolly, is claiming her voting machines changed her vote from Democrat to Republican more than three times in Nashville. Triple check your vote on machines and make sure a poll worker knows and get a copy that it registered
That’s happened before on touch screen voting machines. It happens by either intentionally or accidentally mis-calibrating the touch screen.
I get that but it’s now being reported in multiple states and they are having to press multiple times to get it fixed. If even 2% of voters don’t notice this. It’s game over.
Plus they just charged Virginia’s senator with corruption. 82 years old. This is going to be rigged
Yeah, that’s how the miscalibration “works”.
When you calibrate a touch screen, it will ask you to touch certain points on the screen.
❌
Now, if you fail to touch the X, and instead touch somewhere off to the right, or underneath it, the screen will treat all subsequent touches in the wrong location.
Super easy to foul a touch screen like that and the only way to fix it is re-run the calibration, which could be tricky if you need the touchscreen to enter calibration mode.
NPR reports that Democrat Roy Cooper has won North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, a flip.
Fuck ya, they got rid of Susan Collins.
I need a drink.
HOLY SHIT!
MISSISSIPPI - Democrat is up by 28 votes. TWENTY EIGHT.
48.95% D
48.94% R97% Reporting with Cindy Hyde-Smith as the Republican.
Watching NBC:
There are 2 big counties to watch:
4100 votes left in a county leaning Democratic +60
4200 votes left in a county leaning Republican +3So if he gets +60% of 4100 and +47% of 4200…
MISSISSIPPI - Democrat is up by 28 votes. TWENTY EIGHT.
If this isn’t a compelling example of how every vote counts, I don’t know what is.
The fact that it’s even close says enough
El-Sayed is giving a victory speech but the race has not yet been called by the AP or anyone else…
51.8% to 46.2%.
Rogers told his supporters to go home.
Edit Race called for El-Sayed!
54 minimum, 55 likely, 56 possible.
“best case 52”
lol
President Trump would like to offer his input on the results tonight.
I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
I think he knows he’s fucked.
Gallons of ketchup just flying at the walls tonight!
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