With the funeral of the late Khamenei drawing crowds of millions of Iranians, and many dozen visits from foreign delegations and high-up figures from around the world, the war itself has hit a temporary lull. It appears that the battle over whether the Omani route is legitimate is continuing, with transits sometimes relatively elevated (but still nowhere close to pre-war levels) due to American air support, and sometimes stopped by an Iranian strike. What’s currently happening in the negotiations is extremely unclear to me because of a massive deluge of conflicting information and intentional disinformation.
However, with Vance confirming on live TV that they are treating the MoU as an opportunity to refill oil stocks (not physically possible to any significant degree given current transits and the SPR’s current level) and that they’ll see where they’ll go from there, the US maintaining that Iran cannot be allowed to have a toll/service fee system, and of course the ethnic cleansing in Lebanon, I currently can’t see how this ends without a return to war. The alternative, of course, is that either the US’s or Iran’s position is much precarious than they’re letting on, and they are bluffing but will capitulate under serious fire. I’ve been keeping my mind as open to the latter possibility as I have the former, and of course, it’s not as if Iran’s economic situation is all sunshine and rainbows and so that could potentially be the deciding factor, but to me, militarily, Iran has never looked stronger. The missile cities truly stood the test, and its air defense network is still plenty powerful enough to deter American planes and drones from getting too close to its airspace.
Elsewhere, we are nearing the completion of the latest wave of comprador installation in Latin America, with Colombia and Peru returning to a hard right political stance after a brief stint with more left wing politics. Venezuela is also being forced into submission regardless of which party is technically in charge under threat of overwhelming force by the US, after the US successfully bypassed Venezuela’s major and only defence, a well-armed and party-loyal population in the hundreds of thousands, by simply saying “If you take arms against us on the ground, we will do you what we did to Gaza.” Whether the Venezuelan people will continue to accept this humiliation or rise up is still up to debate, but if there is no response by the government at all, it does seem to spell a pause, though not necessarily the end, of Chavismo as it is currently conceived, and new developments will be needed to take Venezuela forwards. And, finally, Cuba has been forced to take the Dengist route (reform and opening up) for the possibility of survival after nearly a century of a more tightly controlled socialist economy, as the siege this time around proved even more impactful than even the very difficult times after the fall of the USSR. The next logical steps for the US will be to crush Brazilian and Mexican leftist politics, so we may see the ignominious return of the Bolsonaro faction, and perhaps even the man himself.
As I currently see it, with electoral tampering and fraud now both very commonplace and essentially unpunishable by leftist forces, there’s three main paths forward for the continent: 1) a return to the anti-imperialist guerrilla warfare that characterized much of the 20th century due to the once-again-confirmed failure of electoral politics; 2) just accepting submission to regional US hegemony as the US withdraws and relocates its forces and agents from Eurasia under fire, and hoping that maybe they can win an election here or there and that Somebody Abroad Does Something (the mythical “international community”, etc); or 3) the allure of the growing Chinese hegemony proves too powerful for even the American compradors to resist and they sign developmentalist business deals with them that undercut the IMF and World’s Bank plan to maintain imperialist underdevelopment.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
My conspiracy theory: the U.S. news is just calling it “The explosive diarrhea disease” because the Cryptocurrency industry doesn’t want headlines about Cryptosporidium.
IMO important context behind the Kuwaiti border outpost strikes:
Iraqi protests have erupted outside the Kuwaiti embassy (Basra) after an Iraqi fisherman was killed by the Kuwaiti coastguard.
Protesters have been calling for the Kuwait flag to be removed and destroyed.
https://t.me/warcabinet/24919?single
So just by coincidence Iran targets border posts in Kuwait the same day a bunch of Iraqis, namely on the border region of the gulf quislings, are pissed off over Kuwait murdering a civilian?
BREAKING: Reports indicate Iran has launched a new wave of ballistic missiles toward Jordan.
➤ The Telegram channel AMK Mapping reports that at least six missiles were launched from Iran toward Jordan, with launches reported from Khomeyn in western Iran.
➤ The Telegram channel WarFront Witness claims the missiles are targeting Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti (Al Azraq) Air Base, a base used by the Jordanian military and U.S. forces.
➤ At least 3 explosions were reported by military monitoring accounts.
Unofficial Iranian channels are saying that three invading US soldiers were killed in Kuwait.
Iranian air defenses shot down a US imperialist cruise missile near Khorramabad:
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/07/12/3645552/irgc-downs-us-cruise-missile-west-of-iran
Huge wave of attacks by the child-killing US against Iran. This alongaide US-israeli attacks which martyred at least 12 Palestinians in Gaza today.
Explosions in Jask, Bandar Abas, Sirik, Qeshm https://t.me/presstv/198409
Zionist Escalation Continues with Home Demolitions in Gaza, Mass Arrest Raids and Settler Attacks in West Bank
South Korean KOSPI is crashing, kind of crazy stuff. All that KOSPI knows how to do is crash, sometimes it crashes up sometimes it crashes down! Retail traders went crazy over stocks this year for some reason, Korean banks have already lent out (mostly mortgages) as much money in the first 6 months of the year as they planned to lend out in the entire 12 months. All of that seems quaint compared to what the oil market is set up to do if the SoH situation doesn’t resolve. Brent is more shorted then ever, but also onshore oil stocks are nearing record lows at the same time.
They got Fergie Chambers https://hexbear.net/post/9014045
The Grayzone has reviewed a sealed indictment for pro-Palestine donor Fergie Chambers, who was arrested in Spain on dubious money laundering charges concocted by the Trump DOJ. His partner accuses the US government of “political persecution.”
Fergie Chambers, a communist philanthropist and heir to the Cox family fortune, has been jailed in Ibiza, Spain, on the orders of the US Department of Justice. According to a sealed indictment seen by The Grayzone, Chambers now awaits extradition to Washington on dubious federal charges of “international money laundering… with the intent to provide material support to and resources to foreign terrorist organizations.” If deported to the US, he faces up to 30 years in prison.
A very curious coincidence… Neocon madman Lindsey Graham apparently visited a Kiev regime drone factory only one day before he died:
Note, Russia has been heavily pounding these drone factories with numerous missile strikes over the past few weeks. Graham, who had been in good health before his visit, then “suddenly died” after visiting one… A very curious coincidence, indeed!
Edit to add, Larry Johnson also shared his thoughts on this matter:
https://sonar21.com/the-lindsey-graham-timeline-does-not-work-he-died-in-kyiv/
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told “FOX & Friends” on Sunday morning that Sen. Lindsey Graham argued against him when he said Israel didn’t need any more money from America.
PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: This is something that's hard to believe. But we were receiving American support-military aid. We've done this through successive presidents. We did it with Clinton, then with Obama, and then with Trump through a 10-year MOU, a memorandum of understanding, where America gives Israel much-valued support. When I negotiated this, I said, "Okay, this is what we need. We don't need any more." He said, "Yes, you do." I said, "Lindsey, we don't need any more." He would tell me, "No, I'm going to go over your head to the Senate because I think you need more on missile defense," or whatever, OK? I think once or twice he got his way. But let me tell you, the last conversation I had with him, I said, "Lindsey, we've come of age. We have a robust economy. We can take care of financing our own weapons for the defense of Israel and the defense of our common interests with America. "So I'm going to phase out the military support for Israel over a period of years and bring it down to zero. We can do it." And he went ballistic. He said, "No way. You can't do that." He was so concerned with our security, which he believed was your security, that he actually fought the prime minister of Israel on keeping America's aid-or actually increasing it. That tells you what kind of person this extraordinary, extraordinary friend was.Iran state TV: “According to initial reports, tonight’s attack targeted a telecommunications tower near the village of Taherwi in Sirik, the same location that had been hit in previous attacks.”
That would be the 4th or 5th USIS strike on this one tower?
Some strike info:
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said it has destroyed the command-and-control center and MQ-9 drone hangars at the US Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan with ballistic missiles, warning that any further US aggression will draw harsher retaliation.
Iranian drone strikes have destroyed a number of US HIMARS missile launcher systems in Kuwait, Fars news agency has reported. The outlet also said that three American officers were killed and several others wounded – a claim US Central Command (CENTCOM) has denied.
Low-resolution satellite images of the effects of recent Iranian attacks on US targets:
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A destroyed hangar for MQ-4C Triton unmanned aerial vehicles at Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan
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A damaged hangar at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar
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Attack on a warehouse at the US 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, a major fire
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Shelling of a former UN base in Kuwait and a fire. According to Iran, the US launched missile strikes against Iran from that location using HIMARS systems equipped with PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) missiles, each with a range exceeding 500 km
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Cutting China reliance would cost the west $23tn, research suggests - FT https://www.ft.com/content/c6c1f5a5-3332-471b-87d5-253e03f8b90a
spoiler
At $550bn a year, the annual investment required from the US government and American companies to decouple from China is roughly equivalent to the $600bn invested by big US technology groups in data centres in 2025. For the EU, the spending required would amount to a near doubling of its annual budget, EY-Parthenon said.
The mammoth investment required to replicate Chinese resources and materials currently relied on by advanced economies highlights the scale of the challenge facing western governments as they look to reduce Chinese dominance over strategic supply chains.
…
The vulnerability of European and US economies to Chinese coercion was highlighted last year when Beijing imposed export controls on critical rare earth metals in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat of imposing 145 per cent tariffs on imports from China
It’s Chinese coercion when it responds to the west trying to coerce China with tarrifs of course
The challenge is not just how much it would cost, but about China’s ability to intervene to stop such decoupling because of its existing control over the supply of everything from rare earths processing to active pharmaceutical ingredients,” she added.
Given that Chinese-made goods typically enjoyed a 20-100 per cent factory price advantage over their western competitors, reducing reliance on Chinese manufacturing would push up prices and drive inflation, the EY-Parthenon analysis found.
In Europe, severing reliance on China could leave prices 1-2.5 per cent higher in critical sectors, and the European Central Bank and Bank of England perpetually above their 2 per cent inflation targets, the EY-Parthenon report said, citing an ECB analysis.
As well as investment in factories and physical infrastructure, western economies seeking to meaningfully reduce dependence on China would also need to invest aggressively in training workers and automating factory processes, the report said.
I am compelled to ask here : Is Israel going to win this exchange in Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran because of US Support? I saw a post a few days ago that only a third of Americans believe Israel has committed genocide and that the momentum we saw in 2024/25 has been successfuly stifled by suppression of student protests, activism, and restrictions to free speech across the West.
(American leftists have placed their hopes, joining the liberal chorus, into liberal democracy, electioneering, and organizing around delegation of agency to state sanctioned and sponsored surrogates. Gone are the hours and days of protestors and non-violent resistance against the state and economy - perhaps due to the fact the US is no longer a manufacturing economy - to gain political leverage.)
This all seems so bleak.
