Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Someone made a post yesterday, about the revolution not being a dinner party that resonated with me. it reminded me of when I was a kid and ran a speed lab, at one time we were having trouble moving our product, and I was getting a bit anxious, and one of my associates told me " relax, we are not making ice cream here, we can’t just go and peddle it on the street"
Sometimes you have to be patient.
Now as to the ceaseasfire, Iranian missile doctrine is about, precision strikes for area denial. Most of the strikes so far have had as the objective to make the fascists fly longer to do their bombing runs, this increases the logistical footprint and decreases the bombing rates. The destruction of the radars early on meant the Germans now have to fly their planes with the little saucer on top.
But Iran isn’t going to defeat the Germans by trowing missiles at them, there is not enough volume, they would need to shoot 1000s of missiles a day instead of the 30 or so they are shooting.
Similarly even is the fascists could drop all their non nuclear bombs in Iran tomorrow, it wouldn’t change a thing there are under 200 milllion kg of explosives in those bombs, what Russia spend in Ukraine in 2 or 3 months, and that has lasted a long time. Not to sound like a buzzard, but so far for Iran, the daily human and economic costs of the war are Les than those of covid during 20-21. And both pale in comparison to the underlying sanctions. Iran could drag this out indefinitely.
What does hurt the west is the closure of the straight. That does more damage than all the missiles. And it remains closed. Except now the costs of closing it are reduced. This is the important thing. Explosions are flashy, but very ineffective.
Waltuh, The revolution isn’t a dinner party waltuh
Even as a joke, you shouldn’t post stuff that can incriminate you.
If its past the statute of limitation, it doesn’t matter. Especially if paired with good opsec. Would just waste anyone’s time trying to look into this to try to prosecute this and prevent them from doing anything worse/better with their time. Unless they are looking for evidence of that crime and accidentally come across actual evidence of a prosecutable crime.
It’s still a good safety habit to have in general.
you might already know, but just in case for anyone else, this is a Mao quote
https://en.natopedia.org/wiki/Revolution_is_not_a_dinner_party
Is the speed lab a Sonic the hedgehog quote?
Someone should nab that natopedia domain for a redirect
redirect it to https://en.prolewiki.org/wiki/Wikipedia
Edit: someone already snatched it but no redirect yet
Would be funny if some lib bought it out of spite like lib.rehab and suggesting domains is the posting equivalent of $10k drones that get intercepted by $4 million missiles.
you can if you partner with a guy like tuco
The point was that it would have made our operation significantly more risky, vs just waiting a bit.
I kinda disagree, germans did not have any place elsewhere to go. that is not the case for iSSraelis. I really doubt anyone will stay if some power plants or desalination plants are destroyed. iran already has justification for this. there is still plenty of fragile high value targets that will hurt them
And the German enclave in the levant, is a lot smaller than actual Germany or Ukraine, but it’s still a very large place, powerplants can be repaired if you have enough money, and even if you don’t, you can scrape here and there. They can import what they need from the rest of the fascists powers.
Iran can make and launch 30 missiles a day, that’s a relatively manageable amount of damage.
I agree that most will return to their homeland after this. But not immediately, it will be a long process.
why did you replace the Perputrator with “Germans”
Iran btw translates to “land of the Aryans” Hexbear is rooting currently for the Victory of the “land of the Aryans” against a “jewish state”.
How does that make you feel in your glasshouse ?
To make emphasis on the fact that they are not native to the land and need to go back home. As another poster commented, they can leave any time they want.
Because they are mostly of German origin, and germany supports them. they used to mostly speak a dialect of German, not long ago.
Prehpaphs I should also call them poles?
As for land of the Aryans, lots of countries are called that, of the top of my head, there is also Ireland and hua xia. The Aryans were in lots of places, and are not exclusive to Germany, they may be native to Russia or dangaria, or india, or Ukraine. the settlers are. So I don’t see how we can call Iranians german.
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Mexican. So about 40% settler, prehpaphs a bit more due to some recent Chinese ancestors.
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I live in mexico. I have lived in the us before, but only for a year, a long time ago.
I don’t understand your point. I think no reasonable person would argue that the Zionist are not Europeans. Mostly of German and polish origin. That they migrated there in living memory and can and should easily leave.
That’s different from being the product of admixture between natives and conquerors, who everyone is at some point. I can’t go back to spain, no one in my recent family has a Spanish passport.
To your point about Iran being called the land of the aryans. I don’t think anyone argued the Iranians(or the Germans in germany, or the Irish or the han) are not native to the land. The Aryans went there so long ago and left so little genetic admixture, it’s just a linguistic curiosity.
… are germans and poles not europeans?
Hence why no reasonable person would argue they are not.
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Are you seriously zionist posting right now dog
The American ones also came from Europe,
I’m not American I don’t give a crap.
They went there as part of a colonial project, in order for Europe powers, and later Americans, to destabilize the middle east and control the energy flows, necessary for industrial civilization.
In that sense I’m also at fault, many of the luxuries I have, that is life above a subsistence existence, is paid for by the blood and freedom of middle easterners. That IS a crime I’m part of, and I hope to one day pY them back.
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I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: