Image is of a destroyed American AWACS plane in Saudi Arabia, of which there is a very limited supply and each of which is enormously expensive both monetarily and in terms of components. Iran hit this with a precision drone strike that likely cost ~$20,000.
I don’t have much to add from the last megathread description. This isn’t to say that nothing has happened or has changed since then - decades are still happening in weeks - but the general flow of the war is remaining the same. Trump sometimes threatens to open the Strait with troops and flatten Iran to rubble, and other times threatens that he’s gonna back off and let other countries handle it if they really want little trifles like “fuel” and “energy” so much. Iran continues to strike across the Middle East. The West continues to bomb civilian infrastructure due to their relative inability to affect the missile cities. In all: things are generally getting worse for America and the Zionists.
April is the month where the last ships that left Hormuz before it was closed will arrive around the world, so the last month of economic turmoil has been a mere prelude to what’s going to occur in the near-future. The silver lining is that Iran appears to be formalizing the new state of affairs in Hormuz, creating a rial-based toll to allow passage between a pair of Iranian-controlled islands where they can be monitored, meaning that, as long as the US doesn’t do something exceptionally stupid, the global energy crisis may “only” last a couple years instead of simply being the new reality from now on. Some countries have already agreed to this arrangement, and others will inevitably follow despite their consternation as their economies increasingly suffer.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
A through and rapid retreat of the empire from West Asia where the US leaves Israel out to dry is the absolute best case scenario.
But is such a thing possible with a dullard like this at the helm?
I don’t believe Trump capable of conceding anything, but then again his only opposition thus far had been the Democrats.
He has been forced to back down by reality before. The people’s movement ended the ICE surge in Minneapolis and he hasn’t attempted another. China slapped him firmly across the face in the tariff war and he walked almost all of it back with them. He gave up on controlling Yemen and accepted a ceasefire without achieving his goals. Even in Venezuela, he was helpless to achieve anything of substance within the country - only to impose a military blockade external to the country, utterly failing at regime change and having to act like he picked Rodriguez.
But in all those cases he could very easily frame defeat or retreat or stalemate as resounding victory, at least to his base but sometimes even more broadly. He always withdrew his hand from the trap before it snapped shut. This time, he’s stuck. There’s no option but gnawing off his own arm - the empire’s arm.
god help whoever becomes the next target of the usa imperialism travelling circus. the amount of chaos required to shift attention from this will be massive.
I suspect it will be Cuba, but I’m hoping Russia, China, and Mexico can help Cuba enough while the US is distracted by Iran that Cuba will be able to take whatever the US dishes out.
Or that the US feels pressured enough by the losses in Iran that they’ll feel they have to rush to China sooner and will have to bypass their planned Cuba plans to hit their China war time table.
Honestly a conflict with China near the end of this year or start of 2027 would just be the cherry on top. Watch at least one aircraft carrier be immediately super sonic’d to oblivion or swarmed by China’s new drone systems
I am hoping every day for this. At least it should retract into itself and take a pause from fighting with absolutely everyone. But-- What would have to happen for attacks on israel which aren’t defensive/retaliatory, but intending to retake stolen territory? Real incursions. Who would do it?
All this shaking up of the image of impenetrable israel is nice, and the idea that the citizenry face consequences at home is nice, but how does it get taken apart?
(Sorry for randomly attaching massive question to passing comment. It is just on my mind recently.)
I sort of disagree about that being the absolute best case scenario… I think best case would be that Trump is bogged down in Iran for months (or even years) and loses so catastrophically that the US petrodollar system completely breaks and exacerbates a major economic meltdown in the US. Something like that could leave the US incapable of helping Israel if it even wanted to, while also changing the domestic political dynamic radically. A prolonged conflict- followed by economic crisis would also have the potential of shielding Cuba, and the rest of the world, from whatever bullshit they are planning next. It isn’t even that hard to see… if the demand for dollars begins to evaporate and the treasury bond market begins to collapse, the US would lose its infinite money glitch- and much of its expansive military budget with it… if they retreat too rapidly I could easily see them turning to cuba next to score another “easy” victory
I get what you’re saying, but the costs to Iran and Lebanon are very real. The global ramifications of the massive drops in oil production, as much I want to see that commodity abolished immediately, are also going to hit poor and working people painfully around the world, especially in the already most exploited regions.
As a relatively comfortable American, cheering on a longer and more vicious war that I’ll be mostly insulated from doesn’t sit right with me. I don’t want another university bombed, I don’t want another village destroyed. It’s a strange position to be watching this as an observer but also as a revolutionary organizer - this present unprecedented opportunities to break the system. That’s exciting and empowering and gives me hope. I’m working very hard to take advantage of it here. But how much can I bask in that feeling when it’s Iranian and Lebanese civilians paying the price with their homes and families and cities?
I fundamentally agree and feel the same discomfort. I guess my feeling is that that is the best possible outcome and the most realistic way it would play out. I also do not believe that if this conflict were to end quickly it would prevent those deaths in Lebanon and Iran. The terms Iran has given for an end to the conflict imo will mean that it will ultimately last either till mid terms, the end of trumps term, or with the US abandoning Israel and the petrodollar dominance. It is already existential for Iran and Lebanon, and the longer it drags on the more it can transition to an existential issue for the US ruling class. I am not cheering for the conflict to go on forever, but I think it is realistic that it will if the US is to lose catastrophically and uncategorically . I also think as an organizer in the core, openly or not, we ought to be embracing revolutionary defeatism as anti-imperialists- the defeat of the US ruling class will also mean defeating our shared class enemy. I think a short withdrawal by the US will be unlikely to end the repression and ultimately allow for them to strategically pivot to repression in the western hemisphere- including the core- whereas the fallout from a prolonged conflict will definitely affect working class people in the core (it inarguable is already been deleteriously affecting the periphery and has since 1950) I think Iran understands that and that is why they seem to be pursuing a strategy that reshapes the global system to some degree- honestly, before this conflict it was hard to be optimistic at all about what is transpiring in Gaza and western asia, it seemed like the genocide would expand unchecked and now the destruction of Israel seems like a possibility- even if unlikely
I think US imperial decline will continue with or without the war.
Neoliberalism is doing more to hollow out the imperial core than these wars anyway so I think the best case scenario is that Iranians stop getting bombed and some respite for Gaza to let them rebuild some kind of life.
I don’t think neoliberalism can be separated from the international subjugation of the periphery. Sure, the austerity and cruelty imposed on the working class in the core presents contradictions, but it is the neoliberal global financial system that ultimately allows for the contradictions in the core to be imposed without affecting necessary social reproduction required to support the ruling class. You cannot have one without the other because it is the realization of capitalism internationally and in the unipolar era
Sure I agree with what you say there but the comment I replied to said this
Which I think is not a morally correct position to hold, since to me that seems to be viewing the suffering of Iran and others in the Middle East as a kind of “useful function” since it has collateral economic impact on the USA.
Like, you can argue the invasion of Iraq and the forever wars hasten the decline of US power but that doesn’t make these things desirable.
The best case scenario for Iranians is a rapid peace that preserves Iranian sovereignty.
I absolutely concede that I was wrong to say that it necessarily must be a prolonged conflict and apologize for implying that that would be a good thing. It is absolutely true that the violence of the US and israel is a tragedy and I am not in harms way. I think the war is unjust and the US ought to stop what it is doing and abandon its foreign military bases. And I am doing what I can to oppose the war and call for the US to end its wars. I also think Iran and the resistance are the ones who will decide how to defend themselves and what terms to set for the end of the conflict, and it is their place and not mine to decide that.
But I do support their resistance and I support Iran’s stated position that the only terms of peace that are possible is an arrangement that guarantees the US and Israel will never wage war in the region or against Iran again.
What will that look like, though? I think Iran has essentially said they are willing to fight for that new system and I don’t think the US will accept that until they have categorically lost. I think it will inevitably be prolonged because the US is unlikely to accept that until it threatens their ruling class’ grip on power or there is new political leadership that will acknowledge the war as a failure. Prolonged might also be a misnomer, as I don’t think the world economy can handle more than a few months of whatever is happening now.
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