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  • Jeanne-Paul Marat@lemmygrad.ml
    20·
    20 days ago

    If (more like when) a ground invasion doesn’t work, what are the chances the US actually uses a nuclear weapon? Tactical or otherwise?

    What would actually be the consequences of that? I honestly can’t think of specifics.

    • Commiejones@lemmygrad.ml
      202·
      20 days ago

      Nukes are a weapon of terror and Iran is immune to terror bombings. They serve no tactical value, their only value is in genocide. They are a paper tiger.

      A nuke can’t open the strait or win the war. If usrael knew where the Iranian bases that control the strait are they would just use conventional bombs on them. Iran’s bases are buried deep enough to be immune to bunker busters and while nukes are devastating area weapons their penetration is limited. In order to get lucky and hope at destroying most of the bases that close the strait with nukes they would have to use enough to irradiate the whole gulf region rendering the opening of the strait useless because nobody will be there to pump oil, while also harming their allies with fallout.

      If usrael use nukes against civilian centers in Iran (the only “useful” application) , Russia and China have no reason to expect the same would not be done by to them. Given the ongoing war in ukraine and the threats to China over flagging american supremacy the logical response would be to nuke usa before it nukes them.

    • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
      181·
      20 days ago

      My hope is that a nuclear strike is deemed to risky, but in the event theor is one, I say there’s a possibility that Russia officially declares that Iran is under their nuclear umbrella in the event of another.

      I think the thing that kills the chance of a nuclear strike more than anything would be an Uprising in Palestine. Many people are speaking as if Israel will see the end of this conflict, and although that’s a possibility, I honestly think it’s a more shaky one.

      Israel is currently ramping up their genocidal activities in both the West Bank and Gaza, even as their military strength is degraded by Iran and Hezboallah particularly. Their economy will continue to nose dive as the resistance expands their targets, and their civil soceity is already showing signs of internal discohesion. This is a recipe for an overwhelming operation by the Palestinian resistance that will put down the settler colony for good.

      After that point, nuclear strikes from Israel become less of a factor in my opinion, and the US decisively loses the lynch pin that allows them to dominate the region in the first place. A nuclear strike at that point would only be uses to leave the region as destroyed as it can, which frankly I don’t rule out of the US’ thinking.

      • Verenand@lemmygrad.ml
        17·
        20 days ago

        I doubt Russian bourgeoisie will help anyone, internationalism is long gone, and no one except us, the people can change it

          • Verenand@lemmygrad.ml
            2·
            20 days ago

            Didn’t help them tho during US invasion

            Edit: ok, thought about it, and if i recall correctly - they could be helping with weapons for Iran (which Israel stroke recently). Still, hoping for a help from clear, capitalist state is… Strange, they’ll only help if that’s profitable

            • senseamidmadness@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
              4·
              20 days ago

              While it is a capitalist state, not every capitalist state’s foreign policy is purely motivated by profit. There are other incentives. Russia wants to weaken the US international position and that has more than just monetary benefits.

              Nationalism or cultural motives are sometimes more important than capital. Japan refusing to allow foreign capitalists to buy their businesses is a notable example; their cultural xenophobia is stronger than their desire for profit.