For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml’s comment here.
Following a “anti-corruption” protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as “Gen Z protests”, and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it’s wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it’s more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.
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Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.
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The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.
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The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India’s BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.
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Of the countries that aren’t tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.
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The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India’s Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.
I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.
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Israel's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Grain of salt because I can’t find the Reuters report, so take note:Found it
Under US pressure, Syria and Israel inch toward security deal
Israel has been proceeding with the Balkanization of Syria as scheduled, moving further into the country and arming Druze factions
more context from yesterday
Breaking — Israeli Forces Deploy Howitzers in Syria:
Local sources confirm that Israeli forces have stationed howitzers in Syria capable of reaching the capital, Damascus. The artillery is reportedly placed at IOF-controlled positions since the fall of legitimate government, including Haramoun 1 and 2 in western Damascus countryside and military barracks near al-Hamidiyah in Quneitra.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, this marks the deepest Israeli incursion since 1973, reaching 10 km from Damascus and 38 km into Syrian territory. Hundreds of 210th Division soldiers reportedly raided two abandoned Syrian bases, seizing or destroying mortars, anti-tank missiles, Soviet tanks, and 3.5 tons of explosives.
Zionist-aligned Druze factions in Al-Rihla reportedly welcomed Israeli troops, exposing previous government’s depots and requesting protection from the HTS. Israel now reportedly holds an 5–10 km strip with eight positions, cutting arms routes to Hezbollah. Commanders indicate further deep raids may follow.
🔹@enemywatch
https://t.me/enemywatch/41675
No real surprises, shooting from an elevated position aiming towards a lower target always helps with the range of artillery. Mount Hermon (Haramoun 1 and 2) is 32km from the outskirts of Damascus, and 40km from its centre, and has a peak 2 800m above sea level, making it the highest point in Syria and strategically significant. Plenty of howitzers and rocket artillery can hit Damascus (700m above sea level) from there, even the old M109s with base bleed or rocket assisted projectiles can do it. Also, early warning radars can be placed on Mount Hermon to monitor for potential drone incursions from the east or from Lebanon. Another thing that must be noted is the Israeli capture of key dams in the Yarmouk river basin late last year. All of this took place before any new incursions into Syria. New incursions are just further solidifying Israeli control that already occurred last December.
I highly doubt that Israel will give Mount Hermon and the Yarmouk river basin because Al Jolani asked nicely.
The primary thing I wanted to discuss was not the artillery point, but the issue of Druze groups seeing the government as a threat and how israel is swooping in as a protector, unifying collaborator groups, taking out weapons caches or supply lines.
Do you think the Hezbollah supply line point is overstated for Israeli propaganda or do you haveany additional thoughts on the internal situation in Syria, re Turkey, the SDF, Suwayda?
Hezbollah supply lines are botth overstated and understated. There’s no going back to the direct overland supply line from Iran through Iraq and Syria, that’s a big loss. But how effective any blockade is depends on how seriously the HTS government in Syria, and the Lebanese government, take the policing of land borders, airports and seaports, and how much pressure the US and Israel can put on Lebanon and Syria to enforce this. The Lebanese Army is supposed to be working on a plan to disarm Hezbollah.
Turkey, I don’t know. There is both an opportunity for them to go further into the western fold, or to go further towards some independent policy. If Turkey sells it’s S-400s back to Russia, they could get F-35s again as a NATO member. Any chance of an “independent Turkey” would require leaving NATO. Though they could have a “turf war” with Israel over Syria, but I don’t see that going well for Turkey.
Appreciate it. The amount of wild cards have been stumping me since Assad fell
I wonder what neolib jihadis would do now: eat shit as served together with gulf (still in transit, honest) money and become 4 states in a state, or turn their attention to kurds, as erdie financed them to.