Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran’s government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Who the fuck is gonna be up for election?
Eduardo del Castillo (MAS party, Right-Wing SocDem maybe Neoliberal? White Bolivian, Doesn’t like Evo I guess, Arce backed guy)
Andrónico Rodríguez (Popular Alliance, Democratic Socialism, The most popular guy to win the election, Evoist but not supported by Evo, was supposed to be the candidate in 2020 but Evo replaced him with Arce)
Jaime Dunn (New Patriotic Generation, Obscure Conservative Neoliberal, actually it seems there was some confusion and no one knows who really is their candidate or wtf even is this party)
Jhonny Fernández (Solidarity Civic Unity, Conservative that was part of the Far-Right - Center-Left Coalition that ruled Bolivia during the 1990s)
Pavel Aracena (Nationalist Democratic Action, Far-Right to Center-Left guy who is part of the now unpopular party of the ex-military dictator of Bolivia)
Manfred Reyes Villa (Neoliberal Pro-USA)
Jorge Quiroga (Revolutionary Left Front, Neoliberal anti-communist party, Quiroga is a former vp and president and no one really likes him)
Eva Copa (MORENA/National Renewal Movement, Social Conservative Democratic Socialist, she was the president of senate during the coup, used to be close with Evo but the two had a fight during the 2020 elections)
Rodrigo Paz Pereira (Christian Democratic Party, Catholic Neonazi Party basically)
Samuel Doria Medina (National Unity Front, Center-Right Liberal and Socially Liberal, just some rich guy party)
Will be continue the project of building along Evo’s program?
I guess both Eva and Rodriguez want to continue the democratic socialist reforms in Bolivia while focusing mostly on the Natives instead of the Mestizo Elite or White Minority. The only “positive” I can think about Eduardo del Castillo is that if he continues Arce’s foreign policy, Bolivia will be more integrated with the South American Left (Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia and Uruguay) and China but not hostile towards the EU or the USA, and he doesn’t seem very neoliberal though it could be argued that Bolivia lost some of it’s independence to Brazil and China, even if these mining rights agreements were more fair than what was before (Brazil used to own 80% of Bolivia’s gas industry, until Evo nationalized it and made an agreement with Lula da Silva).