This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).

Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.

Previous megathread

  • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
    11·
    17 hours ago

    BREAKING | Yemen announces blockade on Israel-linked vessels in Bab al-Mandab Strait

    Statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces:

    Expand

    "In the context of confronting the American and Zionist aggression against the Axis of Resistance and resistance in Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and rejecting the Zionist project aimed at establishing a ‘Greater Israel’ under the guise of the ‘New Middle East,’ and in an effort to break the unjust and oppressive siege imposed by the American enemy on our people and the free and proud nations of the axis in Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, the Yemeni Armed Forces have launched a missile strike targeting sensitive Israeli objectives in the occupied region of Jaffa, and thanks to God, they have successfully achieved their objectives.

    In this context, the Armed Forces emphasize the following:

    Firstly, we announce a complete and total naval blockade against the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements a military target for our armed forces from the moment of this statement’s announcement.

    Secondly, we confirm that we will confront escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will intensify in line with the events, the battle, and our participation in the axis of jihad and resistance.

    Thirdly, we affirm the right of our people and the free nations of our nation to confront the American-Israeli aggression, and that we will not stand idly by in the face of the unjust siege on our people and the nations of the axis of resistance in Palestine, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. All enemy attempts will fail by God’s permission, and our operations will continue as long as the aggression and siege against us and the axis of resistance continues."

    https://t.me/thecradlemedia/61374

  • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
    10·
    17 hours ago

    🇮🇷🇮🇱 Israeli Army Radio:

    The assessment in the Israeli army this morning is that exchanges of strikes with Iran are expected to continue for several days.

    A large-scale mobilization of reserve forces in the Home Front Command began this morning, including rescue and relief teams prepared to reach missile impact sites.

    @SimurghRes

    https://t.me/SimurghRes/5451

  • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
    8·
    17 hours ago

    🇦🇲 Pashinyan’s party received 49.81% of the votes, according to preliminary data from the Armenian Central Election Commission after counting votes from all polling stations.

    That means that Pashinyan’s party failed to secure the 50% needed to form a government alone.

    The “Strong Armenia” party gets 23.29%, the “Armenia” bloc - 9.94%, and the “Prosperous Armenia” political force - 4%.

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    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/186053

  • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
    9·
    18 hours ago

    🇮🇷⚡️🇮🇱🇺🇸 A few minutes ago, Israel attacked Karun Mahshahr Petrochemical Company — Security Deputy of Iran’s Khuzestan Province

    “Further news regarding damages and possible casualties will be announced later”

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/186051

  • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
    18·
    23 hours ago

    🇮🇱⚔️🇮🇷CAN ISRAEL STRIKE IRAN WITHOUT THE US? The Tanker Math (Nobody Is Doing) Doesn’t Math

    Trump says US forces won’t participate in Isn’treal’s announced retaliation against Iran.

    Cool story, Daddy.

    Let’s look at what Isn’treal can actually do on its own:

    ✈️Israel’s entire aerial refueling fleet:

    • 7× Boeing KC-707 Re’em (~75t transferable fuel each)
    • 1× Boeing KC-46A “Gideon” (delivered May 27, ~95t transferable fuel)

    🛢Total: 8 tankers ➡️~620 tons of fuel

    The geography:

    • Isn’treal to western Iranian targets (Isfahan, Natanz): ~1,500–1,700 km -Israel to Tehran: ~2,000 km
    • Maximum range of “Isn’treali” F-35/F-15 manned terror dispensers: ~2,000 km

    At these distances, the actual mission profile for strike aircraft is:

    • 1️⃣ Take off from an IOF airbase carrying max strike payload
    • 2️⃣ Immediate post-takeoff top-off over friendly airspace (~300–400 km out)
    • 3️⃣ Transit to Iranian AD zone - enter fuel-critical for maneuverability
    • 4️⃣ Execute strike, exit Iranian airspace
    • 5️⃣ Emergency egress refuel immediately after exiting Iranian AD (~eastern GCC/OnlyFans Caliphates)
    • 6️⃣ Return transit to Israel

    That’s three refueling stations required simultaneously — with no tanker able to safely loiter near Iranian airspace.

    🧠The math:

    • 8 tankers split across 3 stations = 2–3 tankers per station - in theory. More likely: 2 tankers per “safe zone” stations, 4 tankers for the emergency egress refuel.

    • Each tanker carries ~75t (95t) of transferable fuel. Each strike aircraft (F-35I, F-15I) needs roughly 6–8t per refueling event. That’s 9–12 aircraft serviced per tanker per station — before it’s empty.

    • With 2-3 tankers at the critical egress bracket, that’s theoretically 18–24 aircraft — and the timing and sequencing can collapse fast, as pilots exiting Iranian airspace fuel-critical cannot queue. They need gas now, in short sequence, cannot loiter or “hop on to the next station”.

    • Maximum realistic sortie: 15–20 aircraft. One wave. Then the entire fleet lands, refuels, and resets.

    Another, even bigger Elephant in the room - who will deal with Iranian AD systems? Where will Isn’trealis get the anti-radar specialists to supress Iranian AD and enable the aerial incursion into its airspace in the first place?

    🧠 Conclusion:

    Without the actual US military, its Isn’treali proxy cannot do a single real aerial operation against Iran - they can deliver their calling card - launch 20-30 stand-off munitions at targets in western Iran. At best.

    Oh, another “interesting” fact: currently there are 40+ US KC-135s and KC-46s parked at Ben Gurion Airport - and they’re staying there “till end of 2027”.

    Their numbers actually grew from ~36 during the February-March terror campaign against Iran to 47 after the ceasefire, with additional tankers rotating in despite Iran destroying or damaging at least 7 US refuelers during the conflict (1 shot down over Iraq, 5 damaged at Prince Sultan AB in Saudi Arabia, at least 1 more hit in action).

    The US tankers at Ben Gurion have been flying daily sorties continuously since early April.

    The Orangetan Stable genius Window Licker Supreme Leader claims US War machine will not take part in this new war crime.

    🐻Anyone buying this BS claim should immediately contact our Chatbot - we have a special, once in a lifetime offer on magical beans and bridges and Moon and Mars real estate plots at very reasonable prices. We’ll throw in some time-shares on Ivanka & Twink’s paradise island in Albania for the first 999 buyers.

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    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/186017?single

    Some analysis I’d like to see if anyone can check here on grad if they are capable. Though, I think the conclusion that the US is gonna get involved with any Israeli aggression regardless of what Trump say is accurate.

  • Malkhodr @lemmygrad.ml
    10·
    21 hours ago

    🇦🇲 Pashinyan declares victory in Armenia’s parliamentary elections — with just 11.74% of ballots counted.

    Speaking after the CEC processed results from 471 polling stations out of over 2,000, Pashinyan announced Civil Contract will form the next government alone, ruling out any coalition. Over 1.3 million ballots remain uncounted, including the vast majority of Yerevan.

    The opposition is not accepting it.

    ARF Supreme Council Chair Ishkhan Saghatelyan accused Pashinyan of attempting to pressure the CEC and seize power before results are finalized. “Before the election results are summarized, your statements are simply attempts to pressure the CEC,” he said.

    Former Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan went further, calling Pashinyan’s declaration unconstitutional and a criminal act. “This constitutes illegal pressure on the Central Election Commission and is subject to criminal liability,” Tatoyan said.

    Strong Armenia leader Samvel Karapetyan — speaking at 4AM Yerevan time — called the elections a “disgrace,” claimed 75 alliance members are under arrest and over 700 people detained, and flatly rejected the victory claim. “The elections are not over. There are still no final results. They will not have a victory,” he said, adding that Civil Contract has received only around 30% of the actual vote — figures he says will be presented in the morning.

    Pashinyan’s Civil Contract’s share has been declining with each new batch of results processed.

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    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/186019