Image is from this Bloomberg article, depicting world oil inventories plunging towards the operational floor at which pipelines and refineries cease operating, which is expected to occur in September at current rates.
A pretty short preamble below, in spoiler tags.
summary
The conflict continues to be kept at a relatively low level despite Iran’s fiery encounters with US destroyers. I think it’s only becoming increasingly obvious that the US is trying to cobble together some major clandestine operation mixing special forces, the air force, and naval destroyers to either seize Iranian uranium, take control of Iranian seaports, or both. Given a) how the Istafan op went, b) further Iranian preparations around sensitive sites, and c) a seeming strengthening of Iranian air defense around the Persian Gulf (multiple drones and manned aircraft have squawked emergency codes and potentially been shot down over the last few weeks), I find it difficult to imagine this operation fulfilling its objective, and even if did somehow work, why the removal of uranium would necessitate Iran ending the blockade and the war. On that note, I’ve seen reports that Iran is saying that if the US attacks their oil tankers again, they will resume firing on US military bases.
Additionally, Aragchi has stated that not only has Iran’s missile/launcher stockpiles not gone down from pre-conflict, it has actually increased by 20%. This is unsurprising given the total war that Iran is now in; all resources within reason must now be funnelling towards drone and missile production.
Atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon are continuing. The toll that FPV drones are taking on the common Zionist soldiery are quickly becoming apparent, as we are receiving ever-increasing amounts of footage of vehicles and gatherings of soldiers being struck by Hezbollah’s drones. The casualty situation is, as expected, being hidden, but any kind of serious occupation of even the border villages of southern Lebanon (let alone up to the Litani) seems unsustainable.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Update on my trans friend who planned on joining Ukraine as a combat medic. Lots of text, but the TLDR is that she’s not going to Ukraine.
I was able to talk to her about it today, and a lot was revealed. One of the commenters was spot on, this was suicidal ideation disguised as self sacrifice. I went a bit more critical on her than normal. I normally hold back a little bit because some of the things I said, I don’t really feel are my place to say normally. I usually hold back because when she’s not on a manic plan, she listens to be a little bit too much. She respects me as being better read and a smarter person when looking at big picture things. Whenever she says stuff like this, I make sure I point out areas that she’s smarter than me in. She’s really big into theology, so she’ll manically switch religions. She’s also really big into language, and not mainstream language either, which really impressed me. Doesn’t know a lick of Spanish, but knows many indigenous languages. While she is right in her assumption that I am generally better at big picture stuff that sounds conceited, but many of y’all saw the arguments she was making about joining Ukraine, it’s very true.
She came to me this morning crying, saying she was thinking about going to a mental institution. I ask why and she tells me that she’s very suicidal. I comfort her and tell her I kind of assumed, because the Ukraine mission sounded like a suicide disguised as self sacrifice. She admits that this is probably the case. She is often struggling with suicidal thoughts, and while she deals with a lot of mental illness, I don’t think she struggles with clinical depression. I’m not a shrink, but she shares all her thoughts with me, I really think she’s depressed due to a mix of being a disabled trans person in America, having incoherent beliefs from not reading theory, and having essentially been groomed to throw her life away in some sort of combat. In my discussion with her today, I tackled all three.
First, being a disabled trans person in America. Under the structure of her religious beliefs in Norse Paganism (more on that later) it says something that amounts to “If you can fight, you should fight.” I was very open with her about the fact that I don’t know much about Norse Paganism except what she’s told me, and what I’ve seen the alt righters say. I explained to her that this likely meant defending her own people, and as a disabled (schizophrenic) trans woman, she’s needed in America now more than ever. Her very existence is radical in a country that’s trying to send both schizophrenics and trans people to labor/death camps. Part of her reasoning for wanting to go to Ukraine was to escape America, but if she wants to fight, she should fight for her own people. If she wants to leave America, she shouldn’t be leaving to fight in an American proxy war.
Second, incoherent beliefs. She is a Norse Pagan who isn’t a Nazi. She rejected all community with Norse Pagans because she understands that they’re all Nazis, so she’s essentially isolated in her beliefs there. I normally don’t go after her religious beliefs, she changes them when she’s manic but typically goes for religions that seem to lead to reactionary conclusions. Like you know, fighting for Nazis in Ukraine. I told her she should consider building her own spiritual beliefs, but she has a problem where she just has to be told what to believe. Hence why I typically avoid criticizing her religions, I don’t feel like I should determine what religious beliefs she has. I know if I more thoroughly explained mine, she’d probably go with mine. Not because mine are the best and truest, but because she generally follows whatever I say. The first book of theory I gave her to read isn’t leftist theory, it’s really disability liberation. She feels worthless because she was raised in America, by a bootlicker. She hates herself for being disabled, and I think that’s really where she needs to start.
💚💚💚💚💚💚💚💚💚💚
You are a good friend. Glad to hear your gal pal got someone talking send to her
You did great there, a true friend. Much love.
She’s one of the nicest people I’ve ever met. There was a reason in the original thread I was playing defense for her. Would crit her on certain things, but people calling her an imperialist monster when she was telling me in no uncertain terms that she’d risk her life to save a Russian combatant.
She was falling for propaganda hard, but she’s one of the kindest people I’ve ever met.
If people are so quick to make absolutist statements like that online about someone they don’t even know, you can safely ignore their opinion on the matter[1]
I’m glad she is no longer going to Ukraine. And I hope she can find some peace with time. You’re a good friend.
[1]Including me and the absolutist statement I just made.
A quick caveat. Not all Norse Pagans are Nazis. Nazis have appropriated alot of Norse Pagan Iconography, particularly runic script, but there is a substantial community of Norse Pagans (particularly in the Minnesota and Wisconsin area) who are Norse Pagans because it is a large part of their Norwegian and Swedish tradition, though in the past there was a veneer of Christianity that has been shorn with modernity. These people have traditional Norse beliefs in gender and sexuality, which is that gender and sexuality are independent choices by people, fluid throughout their lives, and even potentially situationally. They are generally not nationalists, but they are typically some form of incoherent libertarianism.
The large problem within these communities is that they have a serious Nazi bar problem, especially at their festivals, as, being libertarians, they are of the opinion that their money spends the same as everyone else’s, and as long as they aren’t actively causing issues or have open swastika tattoos, they shouldn’t be ostracized.
That said, the white supremacists are constantly ridiculed for their lack of actual historical knowledge on the subject, especially in their use of Runes, which they treat as a grab-bag, when there are two distinct sets.
Yeah, that makes sense. I even told her when I got into it that I don’t know much about Norse Paganism and was more just reflecting a mirror back into what she was saying. Due to the fact that she doesn’t have community in Norse Pagans that aren’t Nazis, I think it leads to her buying into a lot of Nazi stuff from them without knowing she’s buying into Nazi stuff. One of the reactionary things she was saying that she related directly back to Norse Paganism was her feeling worthless as a disabled person.
She has such broad theologic knowledge that I think it would benefit her to start looking into making her own belief structure. But then again, I think one of her major character flaws is needing to told by someone else what to believe/do, so I’m not sure it’d benefit her as much as a think it would. Idk, I hadn’t slept for 2-3 days when her and I had the conversation that made her realize all this stuff, I’m sure I could have handled it better.
Idk, the thinking of anyone who is getting into a religion that isn’t directly related to their parent’s cultural heritage is usually fairly suspect to me, as they have tendency (especially if they are autistic) to take the tenets of the religion far more seriously than someone who was born and raised in the religion, not understanding the developed unsaid cultural norms, or thinking of those developments as perversions. And this is especially true for people getting into more recently developed religions, such as Norse Neo-Paganism.
People like that are, in my experience, almost impossible to talk to, regardless of their mental state, because their natural tendency is to live entirely within the ideology they have constructed for themselves in their head. They simply do not have a similar mechanism of cause and effect, which means that it is extremely difficult to have a reasonable conversation.
I am happy that you were able to bring them down from the ledge, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they get back up there with either something different or the exact same thing. As my anthropology professor used to say, “An idea shared by many is the basis of a culture, an idea held by one is the basis of a psychosis.”
Best of luck seriously, I have done the same for my own friends suffering in similar ways (literally talking a guy out of going to Ukraine).
“One of the commenters was spot on, this was suicidal ideation disguised as self sacrifice.”
That’s… Totally not horrifying. Nope! Not in the slightest!
Anyway glad she’s safe.
Glad to hear it!
I’m glad she’s safe
you’re a good friend
Good for you and your friend! But
Don’t these Norse religions teach that you will go to heaven if you die in battle? Could your friend be thinking that way?