Note: no opinion either way, but thought exercise;
Pilots mayday’d ATC ~10 seconds after take-off. Survivor could’ve heard the engines die, oxygen masks may have deployed when ram-air turbine spun up, may’ve seen the ground getting closer instead of further away. Twenty adrenaline-fueled seconds is quite a bit of time. Main variable keeping me skeptical is finding a survivable intersection of fall height and distance from explosion.
Engine failure during take-off would lead to an abrupt decrease in the rate of change of acceleration; by definition the ‘jerk’. Escaping via the emergency exit in that time is feasible. Timing the jump…questionable, but possible.
This is what boggles the mind for me. He has this miniscule unknowable opportunity to get the door open, and jump from the plane at just the right time.
He had to hit the sweetspot combo of low altitude and airspeed that doesn’t cause him to die upon hitting the ground, but results in him being far enough from the blast of the aircraft itself impacting the ground. Its gotta be a fraction of a second window of time. He is literally one of the luckiest people in aviation accident history.
Still being one of the luckiest people in aviation accident history, he may just have opened the door and stood there, and when the plane hit the ground been thrown by chance in the direction out.
Thinking about it, this is probably the best option, statistically. Timing the jump has virtually no chance of succeeding, but if you stand by the door you have an almost 25% chance of being thrown out the right way.
Survivability doesn’t decrease linearly with increased fall height. Bear Grylls famously survived a 16,000 ft /5,000 m drop in 1996 and made a full recovery. It takes a fair bit of luck but I guess being the sole survivor of a plane crash means he had that base covered no matter the exact events.
Note: no opinion either way, but thought exercise;
Pilots mayday’d ATC ~10 seconds after take-off. Survivor could’ve heard the engines die, oxygen masks may have deployed when ram-air turbine spun up, may’ve seen the ground getting closer instead of further away. Twenty adrenaline-fueled seconds is quite a bit of time. Main variable keeping me skeptical is finding a survivable intersection of fall height and distance from explosion.
Engine failure during take-off would lead to an abrupt decrease in the rate of change of acceleration; by definition the ‘jerk’. Escaping via the emergency exit in that time is feasible. Timing the jump…questionable, but possible.
This is what boggles the mind for me. He has this miniscule unknowable opportunity to get the door open, and jump from the plane at just the right time.
He had to hit the sweetspot combo of low altitude and airspeed that doesn’t cause him to die upon hitting the ground, but results in him being far enough from the blast of the aircraft itself impacting the ground. Its gotta be a fraction of a second window of time. He is literally one of the luckiest people in aviation accident history.
Still being one of the luckiest people in aviation accident history, he may just have opened the door and stood there, and when the plane hit the ground been thrown by chance in the direction out.
Thinking about it, this is probably the best option, statistically. Timing the jump has virtually no chance of succeeding, but if you stand by the door you have an almost 25% chance of being thrown out the right way.
Survivability doesn’t decrease linearly with increased fall height. Bear Grylls famously survived a 16,000 ft /5,000 m drop in 1996 and made a full recovery. It takes a fair bit of luck but I guess being the sole survivor of a plane crash means he had that base covered no matter the exact events.