First of all, IF the Midterms actually happen unmolested by MAGA, it WILL be a giant blowout. MAGA only has a one vote lead, and literally EVERY special election has gone against Republicans badly.
The Manchurian DINOs are a realistic problem, and Dem leadership needs to strongly address the issue with those people. That will require NEW DEM leadership across the board.
And the Senate wasn’t in contention before, but with MAGA being so universally reviled in this country, it’s now in play.
And Trump probably won’t see a jail cell due to Epstein, unless we suddenly get about a hundred smoking guns, including photos and videos. The evidence is too messed up, the chain of possession is destroyed, it has been under the control of MAGA, and NONE of it is trustworthy as evidence.
On the other hand, I believe that he will see a jail cell over his Insurrection and his Stolen Classified Documents, and a LOT of other stuff. Those prosecutions have been put on hold, but they aren’t gone. When Trump is out of office, Jack Smith can refile, and start up right where he left off, and he seems highly motivated to do just that.
This specific race was for a deep-blue seat, prior to this race the Republican candidate had at best gotten 18%, and this time the republican got 38%, the most any republican has ever gotten for that state seat. Comparing Trump vote to state senate run seems to be apples and oranges for this district.
EVERY special election has gone against Republicans badly.
Well, except for the fact that not a single seat has been flipped. I suppose I can grant that the Republicans slipped 10-15 points in these races compared to the election where Trump was running, but of the three chances to actually flip a republican seat, none did anything.
On the senate, looking at the seats up, I could see maybe Georgia, NC, and Maine as potentially flippable, very remote chance of Texas… So 2-3 gains for the democrats at most. I don’t think Senate is realistically in play, they need to flip 4 red seats to get even a simple majority, still well short of a filibuster proof majority and impossibly short of a veto-proof/remove president from office majority.
his Insurrection and his Stolen Classified Documents
While not ‘dead’ dead, the supreme court basically gave him a 100% pass on the insurrection, they basically declared that a president cannot be held criminally liable for anything while in office. The classified documents maybe but the supreme court can easily intervene and say the records are forever under the president’s jurisdiction to classify as he pleases.
the supreme court basically gave him a 100% pass on the insurrection, they basically declared that a president cannot be held criminally liable for anything while in office.
It’s important to remember two things: SCOTUS ruled that POTUS had immunity for any OFFICIAL acts as president, AND this has not been tested in any court.
Official Acts as president would be those outlined in the Constitution, not literally everything he does, like MAGA likes to tell you (hint: they lie, all the time). MAGA was making noise about charging Obama with murder for his drone strikes of terrorist targets (even though they’d have no problem doing worse), but this ruling would give him immunity for that, since that falls under his Constitutional responsibilities. On the other hand, if Trump were to make good on his threat to shoot someone in the head on Fifth Avenue, he could still be charged with murder, since the murder of an innocent American citizen would NOT fall under his Constitutional responsibilities. Gee, where did the order for ICE to start shooting people in the street originate?
Likewise, there is no possible way that any activity as seditious as leading an Insurrection could ever be interpreted as within a president’s Constitutional responsibilities, nor would stealing hundreds of classified documents, some of which were likely sold.
He will still get away with countless crimes, hidden by his presidency as well as the sheer flood of corruption that flows from him on an industrial scale. But there are plenty that he can still answer for. For instance, his corruption has directly violated the emoluments clause in mind-boggling ways, and all of it is expressly forbidden in the Constitution, and therefore could NEVER be construed as “OFFICIAL” acts.
The Supreme Court has never put guidelines on the presidency before that ruling, and now there are actual boundaries, as defined by “OFFICIAL Acts.” Obviously, MAGA is going to interpret that as broadly as possible, and it’s up to the rest of America to interpret it tightly, and test it in court, over and over and over.
First of all, IF the Midterms actually happen unmolested by MAGA, it WILL be a giant blowout. MAGA only has a one vote lead, and literally EVERY special election has gone against Republicans badly.
The Manchurian DINOs are a realistic problem, and Dem leadership needs to strongly address the issue with those people. That will require NEW DEM leadership across the board.
And the Senate wasn’t in contention before, but with MAGA being so universally reviled in this country, it’s now in play.
And Trump probably won’t see a jail cell due to Epstein, unless we suddenly get about a hundred smoking guns, including photos and videos. The evidence is too messed up, the chain of possession is destroyed, it has been under the control of MAGA, and NONE of it is trustworthy as evidence.
On the other hand, I believe that he will see a jail cell over his Insurrection and his Stolen Classified Documents, and a LOT of other stuff. Those prosecutions have been put on hold, but they aren’t gone. When Trump is out of office, Jack Smith can refile, and start up right where he left off, and he seems highly motivated to do just that.
O
I hope your optimism is vidicated, but…
This specific race was for a deep-blue seat, prior to this race the Republican candidate had at best gotten 18%, and this time the republican got 38%, the most any republican has ever gotten for that state seat. Comparing Trump vote to state senate run seems to be apples and oranges for this district.
Well, except for the fact that not a single seat has been flipped. I suppose I can grant that the Republicans slipped 10-15 points in these races compared to the election where Trump was running, but of the three chances to actually flip a republican seat, none did anything.
On the senate, looking at the seats up, I could see maybe Georgia, NC, and Maine as potentially flippable, very remote chance of Texas… So 2-3 gains for the democrats at most. I don’t think Senate is realistically in play, they need to flip 4 red seats to get even a simple majority, still well short of a filibuster proof majority and impossibly short of a veto-proof/remove president from office majority.
While not ‘dead’ dead, the supreme court basically gave him a 100% pass on the insurrection, they basically declared that a president cannot be held criminally liable for anything while in office. The classified documents maybe but the supreme court can easily intervene and say the records are forever under the president’s jurisdiction to classify as he pleases.
It’s important to remember two things: SCOTUS ruled that POTUS had immunity for any OFFICIAL acts as president, AND this has not been tested in any court.
Official Acts as president would be those outlined in the Constitution, not literally everything he does, like MAGA likes to tell you (hint: they lie, all the time). MAGA was making noise about charging Obama with murder for his drone strikes of terrorist targets (even though they’d have no problem doing worse), but this ruling would give him immunity for that, since that falls under his Constitutional responsibilities. On the other hand, if Trump were to make good on his threat to shoot someone in the head on Fifth Avenue, he could still be charged with murder, since the murder of an innocent American citizen would NOT fall under his Constitutional responsibilities. Gee, where did the order for ICE to start shooting people in the street originate?
Likewise, there is no possible way that any activity as seditious as leading an Insurrection could ever be interpreted as within a president’s Constitutional responsibilities, nor would stealing hundreds of classified documents, some of which were likely sold.
He will still get away with countless crimes, hidden by his presidency as well as the sheer flood of corruption that flows from him on an industrial scale. But there are plenty that he can still answer for. For instance, his corruption has directly violated the emoluments clause in mind-boggling ways, and all of it is expressly forbidden in the Constitution, and therefore could NEVER be construed as “OFFICIAL” acts.
The Supreme Court has never put guidelines on the presidency before that ruling, and now there are actual boundaries, as defined by “OFFICIAL Acts.” Obviously, MAGA is going to interpret that as broadly as possible, and it’s up to the rest of America to interpret it tightly, and test it in court, over and over and over.