A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a Russian missile impacting Ukraine.

As we rapidly approach the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the Ukraine War (an anniversary I absolutely did not expect would occur while the two sides were still in combat), we have seen Russia turn to a new strategy, starting late last year but intensifying in December and now January.

Russia seems intent to disconnect Ukrainian cities from the electrical grid by focussing bombing on thermal, gas, and hydro stations, causing major power blackouts across the country. Russia is also bombing substations relatively close to Ukraine’s three nuclear power plants (Zaporzhye, the fourth, remains under Russia control), studiously avoiding hitting the premises of the NPPs themselves for obvious reasons. Even if they’re far away from the NPPs, striking the substations does have risks, because if the nuclear reactors aren’t shut off before the substations are bombed, there is a possibility that there will be insufficient backup power to prevent a meltdown - hence why Russia hasn’t really attempted to do this for four years.

Most of the electricity generated in Ukraine comes from the nuclear power plants, both because of the infrastructure they had initially (Ukraine was 7th in the world in nuclear electricity generation before the war) and because Russia has bombed most non-nuclear power stations and substations already. Over the last couple weeks, we have seen Ukrainian media fly into a frenzy about long-lasting blackouts, especially in the middle of winter. After the Zionist entity destroyed virtually all civilian infrastructure in Gaza while the West cheered on, they now appear to have changed their mind on whether such strikes are an effective and humanitarian option to subject millions of people to.

Regardless of whether you personally believe these Russian strikes are justified (I’m pretty iffy myself), it must be stressed that Ukraine has been bombing Russian tankers and oil refineries and power stations for a long time now, so in a sense, this is a retaliation. It’s also remarkable, compared to Western wars, that Ukraine was even still allowed to possess a functioning electrical grid for nearly four years into a war of this magnitude. That all being said, while Ukrainian strikes have been somewhat but not overly impactful on the Russian oil sector, the response is clearly very asymmetrical: Ukraine’s power grid is, according to Ukrainian energy corporations, now 70% degraded and is virtually impossible to now repair, and blackouts can last most of the day.

For everybody’s sake, I hope a ceasefire and peace deal will be reached soon. But after four years of seeing opportunities for an end to this war squandered over and over, I’m not holding my breath.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • churresmo [she/her, they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    10·
    1 month ago

    You’re relying a bit much on reducing revolutions to specific figures, and not the will of the people.

    Fairs. Now that you mentioned it, it wasn’t just Ho and Kim, but millions of people who upheld the leadership of these two people. The Korean and Vietnamese peoples wanted those revolutions to occur, after all they went through in WWII.

    But Venezuela does not have a base of people to do the same, nor the same circumstances. The Bolivarian revolution was not a bunch of armed insurgents building a base of people willing to die in large numbers, to fight to the death. It was a a peaceful transition through electoralism and reform.

    I agree somewhat to the first sentence, the second one is stating a fact, and my problem is with the third one, although it is also a fact. Latin American reformism didn’t accomplish anything in the 1960-70s. It only prevented communists from doing revolution, delve them into the romantic path of reform, and that got most of them killed or severely tortured. The second coming of reformism in Latin America in the 2000’s barely accomplished anything. The few reforms that were passed where quickly reversed, and these governments all lost power, except in Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela. I fear the same thing happens again. PT will never take power again after Lula dies, and Petro’s sucessor will be in a tough spot (that’s if he actually wins). Venezuela basically had the only Pink Tide government remaining. They could learn from these past experiences and realizes that electoralism won’t be enough. Or if they don’t realize this, perhaps the PCV or other org could do it (the surrender of PSUV doesn’t surprises me, but PCV’s apathy in all of this is appalling. Seems that everything they do these days is scream “Hands Off PCV” in Solidnet, which doesn’t has any power).

    The thing that I’m very convinced is that the Chavista rank-and-file in last December/this month were ready for a step forward: their massive mobilization alone could scare off an US invasion. Instead, the Chavista leadership took a step backwards, and essentially submitted to the US. And i bet 100% that people won’t like this. I fully expect PSUV or its coalition to splinter into a electoralist party fully loyal to Delcy Rodriguez, with some smaller orgs derived from PSUV attempting to reclaim some dignity in the people’s eyes.

    As for PSUV, their destiny is sealed. They will follow the same path of MAS.

    edit: also, thanks for actually engaging with my comment. the other people weren’t doing that.

    • Muinteoir_Saoirse [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
      12·
      1 month ago

      I think it’s perfectly fair to question this particular model of socialist reform. I mean, I think most people here have no problem pinpointing reformism as a generally weak way to usher in socialism. It’s wonderful to see what fantastic things Venezuela accomplished in spite of the fury of capital, and to see how many people came together to support a better future for their community, rather than just for themselves. But even if it sucks, we have to look at the actual context of the society in which the revolution is happening. And because this is the path that Venezuela took, it wasn’t a path built with the militarism that has given the DPRK, for example, the mandate to stand up to America in the face of serious threat.

      If you’re correct and enough people in Venezuela are opposed to this (and to be clear, as short-term concessions run the risk of turning to long-term subjugation, and the material conditions in Venezuela deteriorate from increased exploitation, it is very likely that larger groups of people become convinced of the necessity for desperate action as time goes on), then a new form of revolution in Venezuela may very well grow.

      Ultimately, that is usually what people come to find in the question of reform or revolution. Reform is a means, not an end, and once reform is made impossible by the impositions of capital, revolution becomes necessary. But I can’t blame someone for wanting a way forward that doesn’t come with the brutality through which the DPRK was forged. For a lot of people, even if they might think intellectually that the long suffering of exploitation is just as painful and deadly, emotionally they aren’t ready to relinquish a chance at a peaceful path.

      • churresmo [she/her, they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        10·
        1 month ago

        But even if it sucks, we have to look at the actual context of the society in which the revolution is happening. And because this is the path that Venezuela took, it wasn’t a path built with the militarism that has given the DPRK, for example, the mandate to stand up to America in the face of serious threat.

        I disagree, in part. Venezuela is pretty militaristic, probably the most of any Latin America country, followed by Nicaragua, Cuba, El Salvador and Colombia (back when the right-wing ruled over, that’s it ; idk how Petro talks with the military, but I would guess isn’t a good relationship). But yeah, DPRK is way more militaristic, some of which is out of necessity, due to imperialism occupying half their country.

        If you’re correct and enough people in Venezuela are opposed to this (and to be clear, as short-term concessions run the risk of turning to long-term subjugation, and the material conditions in Venezuela deteriorate from increased exploitation, it is very likely that larger groups of people become convinced of the necessity for desperate action as time goes on), then a new form of revolution in Venezuela may very well grow.

        I haven’t got privileged info. I’m just expecting history to repeat itself. In 2014, some Chavistas broke with Maduro and PSUV, dissatisfied with Maduro’s economic policy, actually launched armed struggle, which was unsuccessful. I would say that, since this economic decision is way more important than the former, there will be more splintering. But, that’s just a guess.

        Ultimately, that is usually what people come to find in the question of reform or revolution. Reform is a means, not an end, and once reform is made impossible by the impositions of capital, revolution becomes necessary. But I can’t blame someone for wanting a way forward that doesn’t come with the brutality through which the DPRK was forged. For a lot of people, even if they might think intellectually that the long suffering of exploitation is just as painful and deadly, emotionally they aren’t ready to relinquish a chance at a peaceful path.

        I agree. Nobody wants to go through what the DPRK went. Perhaps I’m overreacting, but, as a Latin American, I feel almost as if the 70’s is back. The right-wing is on offensive in all countries, and the left keeps doing dumb shit. And it’s very terrifying seeing reformism crumbles, because every progressive person becomes a target of the reaction. It happened in Colombia after Gaitan got killed, it happened in Brazil when Goulart was deposed, it happened in Chile when Allende was overthrown. And I fear the same for Venezuela, if the leadership doesn’t changes course immediately. Of course, they know more about Venezuela than me, but there’s always that feeling that the leadership might have sold out the people. It happened before the nearby countries.

        Thanks for taking time to respond. And I apologize for my rudeness. Stay well.