A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of military and civilian sites across Caracas which were bombed by the United States as of last weekend.

As everybody has already known for a couple days, the US has abducted Maduro and his wife in a massive operation (of which the exact details are not currently known, but involved hundreds of aircraft and at least some bombing of military and civilian targets), and has threatened Venezuela and the socialist party with further abductions and widespread murder if they do not hand over control of the country directly to the United States. In a statement that really says it all, Trump said that Machado is not being considered for the colonial viceroy position due to her sheer unpopularity. Various parties and countries around the world - and inside the US - have expressed their disapproval, which, as we all know, will not shift US foreign policy a single iota.

A few months ago, when the pressure campaign on Venezuela began, I speculated that Maduro was going to be killed or captured eventually. Flagrantly illegal and violent American military campaigns in Latin America are not new. The US has been invading land, looting banks, assassinating democratically elected leaders, and otherwise overthrowing countries in the region for their own economic benefit for the better part of two centuries, under both Democratic and Republican parties. Unfortunately, we all know that Russia and China are unlikely to do anything meaningful to contest the US in their attempt to more violently assert hegemony in Latin America. I doubt very much that the China of today will come out to bat for Venezuela and start meaningfully pressuring the US economically. For better and worse, we are far from the days of the USSR.

However, Latin America has, historically, met the US in its radicalism, committed to wars of anti-colonial nationalism, and carried out successful revolutions against the dictators placed in control from the US. As history continues ever onwards and conditions develop, I can only assume that we shall once again enter that radicalizing cycle. In that vein, the big question on my mind, and everybody else’s, is: what comes next? Does the Venezuelan socialist party have the social and military cohesion to wage a years-long guerilla war against occupying troops? Can they quickly transition from a conventional to guerilla force as their military facilities are bombed, or will it take several years? Can they prevent the theft of their oil resources and make the attempt at foreign occupation more costly in both the manpower and economic costs than what that war will generate? Can Venezuela manufacture weapons for this guerilla war in a state of blockade? Will this military campaign begin immediately upon soldiers landing, or will it take a period of relatively unopposed occupation of months or even years? Will Cuba, Colombia, and even Mexico be in the same situation by the end of the year, with abducted leaders?

Yemen is the very recent proof that seemingly weak countries can force the American military to retreat in defeat. Can Venezuela follow? We shall see what Maduro has done to prepare the country for this war very soon. The only certain thing is that the murderous violence propagated by a trembling and dying empire shall be defeated eventually, whether it takes months, years, or decades, and the end result will be a socialist victory.

Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    42·
    6 months ago

    https://xcancel.com/ShaleTier7/status/2007936384448024898

    I have spent a lot of time talking shit at people with opinions on Venezuela’s oil production potential, and how it’s going to “RePLaCe CanADa”. So here’s my contribution – how I see the cost of replacing Canadian crude with Venezuelan heavy. I think it’s a nearly $1 trillion bill to get that done. I’m not sure who has a spare $1 trillion in their jeans.

    more

    Venezuela’s natural domestic consumption is ~1MMB/d, so to completely replace Canada and reach 3MMB/d of export capacity, the country needs to grow production to ~4MMB/d of production, a level they have never hit before. Exports never really exceeded more than ~1.2MMB/d. They have one main export terminal (Puerto José) capable of ~1.2MMB/d and other smaller terminals gets them to realistically, 1.7MMB/d, so they need +1.3MMB/d in just export capacity and storage facilities, that’s $5-10Bn. On the US side there needs to be minor import expansion, but not super major, around $1Bn. Then, they have to get the oil flowing north. You’d be able to repurpose some Canadian pipelines (if we assume no USGC re-export), but right now Mid-Valley Pipeline is the only major remaining heavy trunk line that moves oil from the USGC region northward into the Midwest. So you need +3MMBbls/d of crude pipelines that move crude north which would run around $30-50Bn. Then you also need a condensate return line for another $10Bn.

    Venezuelan crude has higher levels of metals and a higher TAN than Canadian exports, so you need to retool the refineries accepting the new sauce, that’s another $50-90Bn on the tab. Cause there’s not enough VLCCs in the world to service this, you also need to build new tankers for the shuttle service. 30 new VLCCs will cost $4-8Bn. Then onto the upstream. I’m going to say that if you’re getting super majors to really invest in Venezuela, they’re going to do tertiary recovery which is overwhelmingly the right play over 20+ years with current SAGD tech (SAGD wasn’t commercial when Venezuela grew the first go-round). Using foamy oil to get to 4MMBbls/d and keep it there for 10-20+ years is impossible (we’re replacing Canada so we need a 20+ year RLI). Right now, Venezuela produces oil cold, and uses depleting reservoir pressure to bring that oil to surface. For a true Canada replacement, you need heat, which is going to be expensive! But we’re not building new upgraders (replacing Canadian heavy), but even then upgrading capacity is only ~0.7MMB/d.

    The problem is they don’t have the power infrastructure to add the power needed for 3MMBbls/d of SAGD for steam generation, and even for primary recovery they don’t have the electricity they need. So you need to build 10-15 GW of new power infra, at gas-fired capital cost including transmission and the new midstream infra to move gas (including LNG import terminals), that’s another $40-75Bn just to get the power to the SAGD facilities. There are constant rolling blackouts in the country. You also need ~7-900MB/d of diluent looping on the Venezuela side, including DRUs for another ~$25Bn. Other local midstream refurb is at least $15Bn to replace ashphalted and corroded trunk lines. Any North American firm would also have to commit to cleaning up Lake Maracaibo which is a $10Bn commitment. For the actual upstream facilities, I’m just going to use a pretty general number based on 125% of Canadian Greenfield costs, so ~$45K/Bbl/d, and lets just call it 2.8MMB/d that’s another ~$125Bn for the actual production facilities and ~$220Bn in sustaining CAPEX while everything ramps, and inevitable 5yr issues will add another $10Bn.

    There are also very little functional logistics infrastructure. The Tinaco-Anaco rail line was never completed, so you’d have to finish that. All copper has been inevitably stripped and looted, you’d have to rebuild all sorts of worker camps, airports/airstrips, rail spurs, trainload facilities. You’d need to re-dredge the Orinoco River ($15Bn), complete the Tinaco-Anaco line ($20Bn), build 1,000 miles of new heavy spec roads ($25Bn), and you’d need to refresh all of the civil infrastructure cause nobody from Houston is going to live in Venezuela as it stands. So you’re going to shoulder that in wages, or Fort Mac copy-paste CAPEX for ~$40Bn. You are also, in the growth/construction and first 5 years going to spend $50-60Bn on paying employees/EPC/other contractors. You need at least 50,000 people in offices and fields to get this done. Of course, security too. Petrominerales spent ~$2.50/BOE on security, so +3MMB/d over 5 years is ~$10Bn on security.

    So all-in we’re at ~$700Bn in both direct upstream costs, and indirect costs. All-in, this is a $1 trillion project to grow exports ~3MMB/d. There is short-term growth to be had, but it’s not sustainable growth. There is also huge long-term potential, but it’s not the same as drilling a pad in the Permian and ripping a tie-in to Energy Transfer. It’s a freaking massive commitment. The country is pretty much dilapidated, and until super majors (and other infra builders) begin committing to the full-cycle costs associated with realizing the country’s potential, the upside is not as robust as many would want you to believe.

    • Export terminal ($8Bn) and import refresh ($1Bn)
    • Pipelines from USGC to Midwest ($40Bn) and then a condensate return line ($10Bn)
    • Retooling refineries ($75Bn)
    • New tankers for shuttle service ($6Bn)
    • Lake Maracaibo clean up ($10Bn)
    • New power infrastructure for the upstream growth at a post-AI inflated capital cost ($60Bn)
    • New diluent looping ($25Bn)
    • Actual upstream production facilities and <5yr sustaining capital and issue contingency ($355Bn)
    • Full logistics and civil infrastructure overhaul (~$100Bn) and security ($10Bn).

    US imports chart by @Rory_Johnston

    • seaposting [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
      17·
      6 months ago

      So what you’re saying is… infrastructure buildup requires long-term engagement and investment? It’s not like the funny paradox game where after capturing the war goal/capital I can just take all their resources?

    • GaryLeChat@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
      16·
      6 months ago

      Long short, imperialism and colonialism is expensive.

      I think this analysis lays out a good perspective on why the US attacked Venezuela, I keep hearing from a lot of left commentators that it’s because of the oil but it sure seems more likely that it’s because of the march towards socialism.

    • Assian_Candor [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      4·
      6 months ago

      What an incredibly thorough and profoundly stupid analysis

      Edit: just on the surface, why would you need to send oil up from the gulf coast to the Midwest when all the refining capacity is on the gulf coast lol

      Why would you need SAGD etc when you can just drill more wells

      The reason Canadian oil gets replaced would be Canadian oil is extremely expensive to extract, there would be no need to apply these techniques in Venezuela so it would be much cheaper

      PDVSA production is low bc of sanctions

      • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        3·
        6 months ago

        Can those refineries handle the Venezuelan kind of crude? Genuinely asking, I’m not an oil guy

        These pipelines are only $50bn of the listed costs though, there’s a whole bunch of other ones too

        edit: I didn’t see the SAGD mention, but I guess that falls under “power infrastructure” in the final listing, which stil leaves a lot of other costs

        PDVSA production is low bc of sanctions

        From what I could find upon further research, production peaked at around 3.5MMB/d in the 1970s, but was then hovering below 3MMB/d for most of the period until sanctions started, with occasional peaks above but also a dip down to 1.5MMB/d in the 80s. So even at its peak it wasn’t quite at this 4MMB/d figure (and now that I check, Canada’s oil exports are up to 4.2MMB/d, I’m not sure how accurate that “Venezuela’s natural domestic consumption” figure is, but even at 3.5MMB/d production, minus that it still leaves only 2.5MMB/d for exports - it would definitely compete with Canada, but the post’s argument was about replacing it completely)

        • Assian_Candor [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          4·
          6 months ago

          Yes gulf coast refineries are set up to process heavy crude. Canadian oil is basically asphalt. You have to apply heat to it to get it to flow, or to separate it from the sand its embedded in. That then gets sent down pipes for refinement on the gulf coast. This is essentially what Keystone XL is for.

          Venezuelan crude is extracted cold with reservoir pressure because it will flow that way. The Canadians would do that if they could. It’s cheaper. The reason production fell off is because PDVSA can’t get equipment. They can’t get rigs, they can’t get drill bits, it’s all under sanctions.

          Onshore wells produce the most when they’re recently drilled then production tapers off quickly, so to keep production up you just have to drill more wells. This is what PDVSA can’t do so they just have to keep the wells they do have producing. If they opened up the concessions to foreign companies they would just have to start drilling. They they can send the oil by tanker up to the refineries on the gulf. Their barrels would be much cheaper so to the extent more capacity for refining would be needed it would come at the expense of the Canadians whose barrels would be priced out.

          So the analysis basically says this is what it would take to deliver venezuelan oil using the same technology used to deliver oil in Canada, and also up to the Midwest where Canadian oil is delivered. It’s just demonstrating a complete lack of understanding of oil markets which is a shame because clearly they’ve spent a lot of time thinking about it.