I don’t think that something silly happening in the Baltics, Russia then invading say Estonia while the Americans decide to stay out of the fight directly, but continue to sell weapons to Europe and provide intelligence, is that unrealistic or outside the realm of possibilities. Unlikely, sure, but it’s definitely something that can happen. If fulfills the ultimate Russian geopolitical goal of de-legitimising NATO by attacking it’s weakest point, and testing just how committed Europe is to defending NATO’s relatively new and smallest members. The US won’t see the need to intervene directly unless there’s a massive frontline collapse in eastern europe, but will be happy to sell weapons and grind away at Russia further, via European NATO instead Ukraine.

Outside of a “boots on the ground” type war, a long range conventional strike exchange between Russia and Europe is also within the realm of possibilities, and probably more likely than boots on the ground. Pakistan and India, two nuclear armed nations, had one this year. Israel and Iran have had multiple since April 2024, including a 12 day long one in June of this year. In both cases, more exchanges are probably inevitable before the decade is finished. Ukraine fires US and Anglo-French made missiles into Russia proper. Russia already flew decoy one way attack drones over Poland a few months ago. Styrofoam decoys with no warhead sure, but still very much an action taken.