https://enews.hamariweb.com/pakistan/heavy-rain-and-storms-expected-across-pakistan-stay-safe-till-may-5/

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has issued a countrywide weather alert, forecasting widespread rain, hailstorms, and thunderstorms from today through May 5, 2025. In response, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has urged provincial and local authorities to take preemptive measures to deal with potential emergencies such as urban flooding, flash floods, and landslides.

Well, sounds like they’ve got water for a bit.

I don’t know how much more pressure can be applied absent direct conflict between the US and Russia, which I don’t believe the US will do.

Almost all US-Russia trade is gone, so not much to take away in economic terms.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4621.html

In 2021, the US imported $29.6 billion from Russia and exported $6.4 billion.

In 2024, the US imported $3 billion (90% gone) and exported $0.5 billion to Russia (92% gone).

It might be possible to pressure other countries not to trade with Russia via use of secondary sanctions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Russia

The top party there is China (who I don’t think that we’re in a position to compel to cut off from Russia).

There’s Belarus, which I doubt is going to be compelled to cut off trade from Russia given the state of affairs.

The other top countries are all EU members. I mean, we could try and put pressure on them, but theoretically they should be doing this themselves.

Like, I can understand criticism as to Trump’s interactions with Zelenskyy, but I don’t think that there’s some magic, easy-to-use lever to compel Russia that the White House has in reserve. Maybe weapon supplies to Ukraine are the most-influential left.

This was pretty much what Michael Kofman predicted was going to happen months ago. As long as Russia feels that they can prevail militarily and is making maximalist demands based on that, and Ukraine is unwilling to accept those terms, there’s not really much room for mutually-acceptable terms.

Even if they got something on paper, that’s not likely to translate to a durable peace.