“This isn’t a gradual worsening; it’s a step change that must be recognized as the global health emergency it is.” Marina Romanello’s words were carefully chosen. The specialist in climate change and health at University College London is also the director of the science journal Lancet Countdown . Her statement comes on the heels of the Wednesday, October 28, release of the journal’s 10th annual report, and ahead of the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey, scheduled for November 9.
An imprint of the British journal The Lancet , coordinated in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), the Lancet Countdown brings together more than 300 researchers from a wide range of disciplines and over 100 scientific and medical institutions in some 30 countries. For the past 10 years, it has tracked the health impacts of climate change using about 50 different indicators.
Its latest report paints a grim picture: not only has the situation failed to improve in the 10 years since the Paris climate accords, which set out in December 2015 to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but it has actually worsened.
“A decade after the Paris Agreement, our findings are unambiguous: The health harms of climate change are growing faster than the world’s response to them, and in many cases even accelerating,” said Romanello. Several indicators, she added, deteriorated more rapidly in the decade following the entry into force of the Paris Agreement (2016-2025) compared to the previous one (2006-2015).
Droughts and extreme rainfall
Perhaps the most striking shift is in the number of heat-related deaths attributable to climate change. Between 2016 and 2023 (the most recent year for which the report has comprehensive global data), excessive heat was associated with an estimated average of 540,800 deaths per year, with 68% (369,900) due to climate change, compared to 398,363 deaths per year previously, with 55% (219,100) attributed to global warming, between 2006 and 2015.
In 2023 alone, heat was associated with a record estimated 710,000 deaths, more than those caused by malaria or HIV, with 71.5% attributable to climate change. In total, researchers estimate that climate change caused nearly 3 million heat-related deaths between 2016 and 2023.
Another alarming indicator concerns food scarcity. The extreme droughts that tend to accompany heatwaves threaten the food security of an ever-growing share of the global population, particularly in poorer countries. In 2025, droughts affected more than half (51.8%) of all land areas for at least one month. This trend has worsened dramatically. The affected area increased by 704% between 2016 and 2025 compared with the previous decade (2006-2015).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, extreme rainfall is also impacting increasingly large regions. Between 2016 and 2025, nearly 17.2% of land areas, on average, were affected by this phenomenon, compared to 14.8% in the previous decade. Not only does the rise mean an increased risk of flooding and landslides, but also of waterborne diseases.
“The evidence is undeniable: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to health facing humanity,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the WHO, told the Lancet Countdown. For the head of the UN agency, the report also shows that “solutions are within reach. By placing health at the heart of climate policies, we can save millions of lives and build more resilient societies, and deliver a healthier future for all.”
Ghebreyesus pointed to the progress made in fighting air pollution as proof. Researchers estimate that about 323,000 deaths are avoided each year in at least 77 countries where air pollution from fossil fuels has decreased since 2016, thanks in particular to investments in renewable energy. However, air pollution from fossil fuels – mainly coal and oil – still causes about 2.73 million deaths globally each year.
Fossil fuel subsidies
The report finds that fossil fuel production forecasts are drifting ever further from the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C. The 100 largest oil and gas companies now plan to produce, by 2040, 150% more fossil fuels than would be compatible with that target, up from 138% in 2025. Faced with soaring oil and gas prices, governments have continued to subsidize these energy sources at unprecedented levels, even though this puts a heavy strain on public finances, the report notes. Fossil fuel subsidies have doubled since 2016, reaching a staggering cumulative total of $6.2 trillion since the Paris Agreement was implemented. In 2024, 10 countries even spent more on fossil fuels than on their own healthcare systems.
The Lancet Countdown warns that political and institutional commitments to health and combating climate change have sharply declined. One telling indicator is that the proportion of countries mentioning the link between health and climate in their statements during the United Nations General Debate has steadily fallen since 2021, dropping from 66% in 2021 to just 26% in 2025, after rising consistently since the Paris Agreement. The report also highlights a considerable funding gap for countries most affected by the climate crisis. Based on data from about 50 developing countries, the minimum cost to meet health adaptation needs is $3.3 billion. Yet only a third of those declared needs received financial commitments in 2024.
“Weakening multilateralism and growing climate change disinformation, denialism, and scepticism are now increasingly undermining collective action and threatening to reverse progress to date,” the authors warned, adding that “the window of opportunity to avoid a potentially catastrophic future is rapidly closing.”
In conclusion, the authors of the report called for the development of a new WHO instrument that would officially recognize climate change as a “global health emergency,” and to treat it as such – placing health at the center of every climate decision, from the “urgent and equitable” reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to funding priorities.
“This isn’t a gradual worsening; it’s a step change that must be recognized as the global health emergency it is.” Marina Romanello’s words were carefully chosen. The specialist in climate change and health at University College London is also the director of the science journal Lancet Countdown . Her statement comes on the heels of the Wednesday, October 28, release of the journal’s 10th annual report, and ahead of the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey, scheduled for November 9.
An imprint of the British journal The Lancet , coordinated in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), the Lancet Countdown brings together more than 300 researchers from a wide range of disciplines and over 100 scientific and medical institutions in some 30 countries. For the past 10 years, it has tracked the health impacts of climate change using about 50 different indicators.
Its latest report paints a grim picture: not only has the situation failed to improve in the 10 years since the Paris climate accords, which set out in December 2015 to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but it has actually worsened.
“A decade after the Paris Agreement, our findings are unambiguous: The health harms of climate change are growing faster than the world’s response to them, and in many cases even accelerating,” said Romanello. Several indicators, she added, deteriorated more rapidly in the decade following the entry into force of the Paris Agreement (2016-2025) compared to the previous one (2006-2015).
Droughts and extreme rainfall
Perhaps the most striking shift is in the number of heat-related deaths attributable to climate change. Between 2016 and 2023 (the most recent year for which the report has comprehensive global data), excessive heat was associated with an estimated average of 540,800 deaths per year, with 68% (369,900) due to climate change, compared to 398,363 deaths per year previously, with 55% (219,100) attributed to global warming, between 2006 and 2015.
In 2023 alone, heat was associated with a record estimated 710,000 deaths, more than those caused by malaria or HIV, with 71.5% attributable to climate change. In total, researchers estimate that climate change caused nearly 3 million heat-related deaths between 2016 and 2023. Another alarming indicator concerns food scarcity. The extreme droughts that tend to accompany heatwaves threaten the food security of an ever-growing share of the global population, particularly in poorer countries. In 2025, droughts affected more than half (51.8%) of all land areas for at least one month. This trend has worsened dramatically. The affected area increased by 704% between 2016 and 2025 compared with the previous decade (2006-2015).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, extreme rainfall is also impacting increasingly large regions. Between 2016 and 2025, nearly 17.2% of land areas, on average, were affected by this phenomenon, compared to 14.8% in the previous decade. Not only does the rise mean an increased risk of flooding and landslides, but also of waterborne diseases.
“The evidence is undeniable: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to health facing humanity,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the WHO, told the Lancet Countdown. For the head of the UN agency, the report also shows that “solutions are within reach. By placing health at the heart of climate policies, we can save millions of lives and build more resilient societies, and deliver a healthier future for all.” Ghebreyesus pointed to the progress made in fighting air pollution as proof. Researchers estimate that about 323,000 deaths are avoided each year in at least 77 countries where air pollution from fossil fuels has decreased since 2016, thanks in particular to investments in renewable energy. However, air pollution from fossil fuels – mainly coal and oil – still causes about 2.73 million deaths globally each year.
Fossil fuel subsidies
The report finds that fossil fuel production forecasts are drifting ever further from the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C. The 100 largest oil and gas companies now plan to produce, by 2040, 150% more fossil fuels than would be compatible with that target, up from 138% in 2025. Faced with soaring oil and gas prices, governments have continued to subsidize these energy sources at unprecedented levels, even though this puts a heavy strain on public finances, the report notes. Fossil fuel subsidies have doubled since 2016, reaching a staggering cumulative total of $6.2 trillion since the Paris Agreement was implemented. In 2024, 10 countries even spent more on fossil fuels than on their own healthcare systems.
The Lancet Countdown warns that political and institutional commitments to health and combating climate change have sharply declined. One telling indicator is that the proportion of countries mentioning the link between health and climate in their statements during the United Nations General Debate has steadily fallen since 2021, dropping from 66% in 2021 to just 26% in 2025, after rising consistently since the Paris Agreement. The report also highlights a considerable funding gap for countries most affected by the climate crisis. Based on data from about 50 developing countries, the minimum cost to meet health adaptation needs is $3.3 billion. Yet only a third of those declared needs received financial commitments in 2024.
“Weakening multilateralism and growing climate change disinformation, denialism, and scepticism are now increasingly undermining collective action and threatening to reverse progress to date,” the authors warned, adding that “the window of opportunity to avoid a potentially catastrophic future is rapidly closing.”
In conclusion, the authors of the report called for the development of a new WHO instrument that would officially recognize climate change as a “global health emergency,” and to treat it as such – placing health at the center of every climate decision, from the “urgent and equitable” reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to funding priorities.