

I’m still of the belief that 2024, Biden beats Trump.
I don’t think so. In each case, there was significant dissatisfaction with the losing candidate prior to the election.
- In 2016, it was because people saw the DNC as having subverted the democratic process to give the nomination to Clinton when Sanders might have won in a fair race.
- In 2020, pick any of Trump’s many faults, or the various impacts of the pandemic. He was terribly unpopular and would have lost to any mainstream candidate.
- In 2024, it was mostly economic concerns, for which many blamed Biden. Harris positioned herself as a continuation of Biden when Biden was terribly unpopular.
I think the common theme is dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Estimates are that 6-12% of Sanders primary voters voted for Trump in 2016. The specific ideology of the candidates was likely less important than the promise to dismantle the establishment.