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10 days agoIt is possible for a third party to arise in FPTP elections, but it’s certainly not common or easy. The UK has a bunch; NZ had a couple before moving to MMP; I think Australia has some.
It usually requires a competent and well-known politician storming out of their party for ideological differences, but being locally popular enough to win their seat as an independent or new party.
AOC might pull it off.
It would have to be in a single district; attempting multiple would definitely fail.
NZ has had a number of individual electorates where the Greens* won the seat, Labour came second, and National 3rd. With a sufficiently left-wing area and a galvanised base, it’s possible.