How is this self-harm? China is poised to win big if it can convince the US to not go through the divorce. China’s export-led growth model has benefited greatly from dollar hegemony and intends to keep it so. The rare earth threat was a stern warning for the Americans that they couldn’t decouple just like that.

It is Europe and the Global South who will be harmed as the new global supply chain is being shaped under the US. If there is no alternative framework emerges, then we will, at best, see a multipolar neoliberalism. We’ve had three years to observe the changes in the world, and so far, there is no indication whatsoever that an alternative to neoliberalism is being formed (Russia did propose dedollarization back in 2022-2023 but that project is now as good as dead with China and the rest of the BRICS not being interested).

To put it in another way, we need to approach this from a Marxist perspective: let’s first examine what is the principal contradiction that is threatening American capitalism at this very moment?

Under the backdrop of trade union movements and anti-war/anti-government/civil rights protests at home and excessive spending on foreign wars abroad up to the 1970s, the key weaknesses of the Fordist-Keynesian model that had fostered a labor-capital class collaboration had been fully exposed under the stagflation following the oil crisis. Their failures gave way to the rise of neoliberalism, whose solution to the stagflation was to brutally crush the labor movement and various protests at home by exporting the American industrial base to the developing world. What, you’re asking for higher wages? We’ll let the cheap labor in the developing world to build our stuff, how about that?

With the US abandoning the Bretton Woods and turned the dollar into a free-floating fiat currency, it gained the ability to leverage its monetary hegemony to obtain “free lunch” all over the world, all to the benefit of the FIRE sector (finance, insurance, real estate) while its industrial base was being hollowed out.

When the 2008 global financial crisis hit, with millions unemployed and many more businesses closing down, what remained of the American manufacturing sector never recovered. Disillusionment and disenfranchisement of the system led to the rise of populism in the 2016 election cycle, in the form of Sanders’s progressive movement and Trump’s MAGA movement, with significant overlap between their support base. The contradictions caused by neoliberal finance capitalism and the long-term effect of deindustrialization have finally resulted in visible and increasingly obvious cracks in the American capitalist system.

In short, American capitalism has been attempting to “escape” from its own contradictions since the first Trump term. It is no coincidence that Trump launched the first trade war against China back in 2018. The goal is to ensure American hegemony while at the same time, handling its trade deficit problem that has caused so much discontent at home. The enemy of the US is not China, but the contradictions caused by its own system. Everything that happened since: including Biden’s Ukraine war to negate the vast consumption potential of Europe, and Trump’s global tariffs against the world, needs to be understood and viewed within such framework.