This week’s summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:
preamble
Diplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in… perhaps not earnest, but it’s certainly started. Iran’s very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump’s (and therefore Iran’s) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to “mellow out” and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don’t believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he’s really quite stupid, with “Israel” being in its worst position in decades under his rule.
Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn’t stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn’t bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump’s threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there’s essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.
Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it’s now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there’s going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it’s going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn’t going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.
However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): “In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed.” Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they’ll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn’t an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran’s strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn’t have complete dictatorial power unlike how he’s conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Independent Danish Journalist Brutalized by Police After Mocking Official
Rasmus Malver, an independent Danish journalist and dissident, was hospitalized with a concussion after being brutally assaulted by security forces outside the Copenhagen District Court on Saturday, where officers pinned him to the ground and struck his head.
Malver is one of the few independent voices reporting critically on Denmark’s police and opaque legal system from inside the Nordic hermit kingdom. The attack came as he documented the politically motivated trial of five student activists and Swedish anti-genocide campaigner Greta Thunberg, who stand accused of trespassing for a peaceful 2024 occupation of a room in a University of Copenhagen administration building. The students had demanded an academic boycott of the Zionist entity over the Gaza genocide.
Read more...
The trial, which opened on June 24 before the Copenhagen District Court, marks a disproportionate state response to what has historically been routine student activism. When the six defendants occupied the university’s Museum Building on September 4, 2024, heavily armed officers responded with submachine guns, battering rams, and police dogs, a level of violence not deployed against campus protests in Denmark since the Second World War.
In addition to the charges of trespassing, one activist is charged with assaulting police for allegedly “wrenching himself free” from an officer’s grip during arrest at a separate protest. Two activists face additional charges for “assaulting officers” by hurting their feelings: one for saying “oink oink, piggy piggy,” and, revealing how Denmark’s notoriously racist police understands class, another activist has been charged for saying “class traitor” to a non-white cop. The two offending phrases were said, not shouted.
Prosecutors are seeking fines and criminal records for all six defendants. Their decision not to pursue prison sentences likely reflects their awareness that the case is legally questionable. By seeking only fines, they ensure the defendants cannot receive public defenders and must pay the full costs of their own legal counsel even if they win, burdening defandants with legal costs and avoiding the scrutiny that would come with guaranteed public defenders. One activist has nonetheless been granted a publicly funded defense attorney, courtesy of a clerical error from the court.
According to Malver’s own account, posted to social media in the hours following the assault, he had been standing in the public square before the courthouse filming a video about the trial when an angry secret police officer first accosted him. The officer accused Malver of photographing illegally parked government vehicles, an act that is not a crime under Danish law, and demanded identification.
Malver, a trained human rights jurist who has built his career holding state power to account, refused.
Alerted now to the presence of secret police in the area, Malver began surveying his surroundings. He spotted an official ministerial vehicle bearing markings from the tiny nation’s Moderate Party-controlled Foreign Ministry, parked illegally nearby. Looking into the adjacent restaurant, he reportedly observed Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen inside, casually knocking back pints of beer. Malver filmed a brief, satirical video about the minister’s “parking permit” before returning to the courthouse to complete his coverage.
What happened next suggests the video had reached its target. Two uniformed officers soon accosted the journalist, who had placed his official press card in plain view on his body. When Malver mentioned that he was pursuing financial compensation for their illegal detention of him, one of the officers became visibly agitated, shouted in his face, and moved aggressively toward him.
Malver took a few steps back. The officers then attacked.
One officer forced Malver’s head against the pavement while another dropped a knee onto his skull. Officers also attempted to strangle the journalist during the assault.
Malver has long been a thorn in the side of Danish police, criticizing everything from routine brutality and operational incompetence to the wearing of extremist “Blue Life Matters” patches on uniforms, raising suspicions the assault was retaliatory. The attack on Malver comes amid a disturbing pattern of increased police brutality in Denmark. Just days earlier, officers in Aarhus were filmed shouting racist slurs at a suspect and kicking him in the head after he had already surrendered and was lying prone on the ground.
Earlier this year, a peaceful protest at the headquarters of shipping giant Maersk, where activists demonstrated against the company’s complicity in the Gaza genocide, descended into an orgy of violence. Unarmed protesters were surrounded by frenzied security forces and beaten with batons. A journalist from the independent outlet Arbejderen, covering the protest, was among those victimized, despite bearing clear press markings.
The square in front of the Copenhagen courthouse is heavily surveilled, and the assault on Malver was captured on multiple CCTV cameras, footage that has yet to be released to the public.
Following the beating, officers initially told Malver he had been arrested under provisions of the Police Act, an administrative detention measure, and that he had not been charged with any crime. He was transported to the Valby police station and placed in a holding cell. There, Malver’s requests for medical attention and legal counsel were both denied.
Officers also lied to Malver, telling him investigators were en route from another police station. When investigators arrived, seemingly unaware of that claim, they initially said they had just clocked in, before changing their story when Malver pressed them on whether they had traveled from a different facility.
Despite having been told that the detention was purely administrative, after four hours the police had fabricated something to charge him with and Malver was ultimately charged with assaulting his own attackers. The charge appears to rest on the claim that one officer allegedly scratched himself on Malver’s fingernails while beating the journalist.
Malver has since shown medical reports from the emergency room and video evidence of the assault to select journalists in an effort to prevent them from running stories based on distorted official narratives. He has declined to publish or surrender the material to establishment media before the officers has been questioned by Denmark’s so-called “Independent Police Complaints Board”, a body independent human rights observers say is notorious for failing to investigate complaints properly and for siding with officers in nearly all cases.
At least two legal proceedings are expected to emerge from the incident: Malver’s lawsuit for compensation for illegal detention, and the spurious criminal case against him for “assaulting” police.
It should probably be noted that according to Rasmus himself, the inciting incident was him reporting on Lars Løkke parking illegally (Because he wanted a quick drink)
Edit: Also he’s wrong about how the emergency room works. Like i have worked in the actual emergency room he is actually in front of filming his video and he says they don’t have a procedure for checking bruises for police reports. Well they do buster!
I’ve filled that shit out about 10 times. It is standardised so much you wouldnt even know, and it start at question 3. There are no questions 1 or 2.
Edit 2: Not that thats the takeaway or anything. The main takeaway is that the evidence gathering from the emergency room is “sloppy” in that sense because their job is to make sure you aren’t dying, and you need evidence to challenge a security state that protects their own