Oh we know they’re lying. Even if the strait was declared fully open today:

-Still needs to be de-mined, which could take months.

-Ships need enough confidence and/or insurance coverage to actually start going through.

-Ships need to transit the Atlantic Ocean to start delivering oil, which takes another month.

-The refineries need to process the fuel into refined products and deliver it to stations, which also takes time.

The SPR is going to be hurting by the time all those things happen, if they happen at all. I’d say August maybe is when the US bans exports.