Looks like this outbreak in 2018 was estimated to have an R value between 1.2 to 3.4 before control measures and 0.6 to 1.4 after control measures. There’s also some analysis of previous outbreaks. Worth noting that this has happened a few times and they’ve all been contained.
I haven’t looked to see if this current strain has any notable mutations. We’ve seen with covid how that can change transmission rates unpredictability.
I still don’t think this is likely to be a widespread issue (relative to other shit like covid and bird flu). But if there was ever a time for something with a low R value to cause disproportionate damage it’s now, what with universally-weakened immune systems and hollowed out disease prevention. The long incubation period and wide dispersal of potential vectors is somewhat worrying too.
I searched and found this
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2009040
Looks like this outbreak in 2018 was estimated to have an R value between 1.2 to 3.4 before control measures and 0.6 to 1.4 after control measures. There’s also some analysis of previous outbreaks. Worth noting that this has happened a few times and they’ve all been contained.
I haven’t looked to see if this current strain has any notable mutations. We’ve seen with covid how that can change transmission rates unpredictability.
I still don’t think this is likely to be a widespread issue (relative to other shit like covid and bird flu). But if there was ever a time for something with a low R value to cause disproportionate damage it’s now, what with universally-weakened immune systems and hollowed out disease prevention. The long incubation period and wide dispersal of potential vectors is somewhat worrying too.