A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is “open” or “closed”, as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.


I’m tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we’ll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.

The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.

To attempt to summarize:

long summary

Against many people’s expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.

The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it’ll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.

Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it’s not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.

Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.

These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we’ll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It’s still a Zionist Ceasefire (“you cease fire, we keep attacking”), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.

Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran’s ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US’s blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).

Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it’ll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://archive.ph/3PJJh

    The United States Is Repeating Its Silicon Mistake with Gallium Nitride

    China controls 99 percent of the world’s primary gallium, a critical mineral and semiconductor crucial for building the microchips of the future. In 2023, it placed export controls on gallium to retaliate against American restrictions on the export of advanced chips to China. In December 2024, China escalated to an outright ban on gallium exports to the United States. The U.S. National Defense Stockpile had zero gallium reserves when that ban landed.

    more

    The United States has been here before. The United States pioneered and scaled modern silicon semiconductor infrastructure. A significant reliance on international manufacturing and the loss of domestic silicon dominance reflect a failure to recognize the importance of industrial capacity to national security. With silicon, the intellectual property was American, but the chips were “Made in Taiwan.” If similar blind spots persist, the United States risks repeating this failure with gallium nitride, a wide-bandgap semiconductor that outperforms silicon at high voltage, high frequency, and extreme temperatures. It’s the beating heart of every modern radar and electronic warfare system. The answer to America’s vulnerability in gallium nitride-based chip manufacturing is not more fundamental research. What’s needed is a hard pivot to heterogeneous integration: a domestic supply chain — from gallium extraction and wafer fabrication to advanced packaging — built on dual-use, production-scale facilities that supply the warfighter and the American civilian at the same time.

    Learning from Silicon

    The United States solidified technical dominance in high-power, high-frequency systems through World War II-era efforts like the MIT Radiation Laboratory. That dominance was short-lived. Around the 1970s, semiconductor offshoring began. Intel was the first U.S. semiconductor company to offshore, but many followed. In 1987, Morris Chang founded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, built on a foundation of American knowledge. The U.S. Radio Corporation of America had trained Taiwanese engineers through a 1976 licensing agreement with Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute. As of 2024, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company controls nearly 70 percent of the global foundry market. Today, the United States retains design and intellectual property strength, but has little control over advanced manufacturing. The United States treated microchips as an economic commodity with few national security implications. The 2022 Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science (CHIPS) Act was a response to these vulnerabilities, but the release of funds has been inexcusably slow. The success of the act is debated. The National Center for the Advancement of Semiconductor Technology was shut down in August 2025.

    The act promised the creation of close to 50,000 jobs, yet Intel received approximately $7.8 billion in subsidies and still laid off around 35,500 workers in less than two years. GlobalFoundries received up to $1.5 billion and announced $500 million in share buybacks.

    peltier-laugh

    Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s Arizona fab has taken twice as long to build equivalent facilities to those in Taiwan and faced significant cost overruns, exposing the depth of the manufacturing gap the United States must close. The United States must learn from these mistakes with silicon. Repeating these failures with the next generation of semiconductors would be a colossal error of public policy and will.

    Gallium Nitride: The Next Strategic Semiconductor

    While silicon reigns supreme for digital and logic applications, the U.S. semiconductor revolution began with the advent of radar. Nearly a century later, revitalizing the domestic chip industry may depend on radar once again. Gallium nitride is the state-of-the-art for high-frequency, high-power amplifiers essential for modern radar. It handles high voltage, high frequency, and extreme temperatures simultaneously, the exact conditions of modern electronic warfare, making it the ideal semiconductor for radar systems as well as other national security applications. Numerous U.S. ground-based and naval systems currently utilize gallium nitride. The Raytheon AN/SPY-6(V)1 is the Navy’s next-generation Integrated Air and Missile Defense radar. Lockheed Martin’s AN/SPY-7 powers allied Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense platforms. The Northrop Grumman AN/TPS-80 provides air surveillance and defense for the Marine Corps. Beyond sensing, gallium nitride is vital for electronic warfare. The Raytheon Next Generation Jammer Mid-Band enables the EA-18G Growler to disrupt adversarial communications. Gallium nitride will not replace silicon. The two will coexist. The marriage of the two semiconductors is critical for the buildup of modern, highly optimized chips, an idea known as heterogeneous integration. Silicon can provide the digital backend for modern radar phased arrays, at scale. Gallium nitride enables high-frequency circuits with high-output power but lacks digital capabilities.

    Unless the United States is willing to build the advanced packaging facilities to do this at high volume, it will repeat the mistake it made with silicon chips. Heterogeneous integration solves a problem that has constrained radar and electronic warfare hardware for decades. Gallium nitride provides unmatched radio frequency power. Silicon provides dense digital control. Piezoelectric films provide excellent filtering. Yet these materials cannot be grown on a single substrate. The industry assembles radio frequency front ends from discrete chips connected by traces that degrade signal quality, limiting performance, inflating cost, and preventing the scaling that next-generation phased arrays demand. The challenge is not the science, but manufacturing at scale. The Next-Generation Microelectronics Manufacturing program at the University of Texas at Austin is a meaningful start, but focuses on prototyping, not production. The United States still lacks the high-volume advanced packaging infrastructure that next-generation defense systems will require, and Asia is building it faster.

    The Gallium Problem

    Primary gallium — gallium in its raw, unrefined form — is low purity. It must be refined further to produce high-purity gallium required for gallium nitride wafers. China produces 99 percent of the world’s primary gallium and has weaponized that position. In 2023, it placed export controls on gallium in response to U.S. chip restrictions, threatening the refined gallium supply on which U.S. gallium nitride foundries and allied wafer producers both depend on for in-house wafer growth and external wafer procurement. In December 2024, China escalated to an outright ban on U.S. exports. The ban was temporarily suspended in November 2025 following a U.S.-China trade truce, but it remains in effect for military end-users, and the suspension itself expires in November 2026. China can flip the switch again at any time. The vulnerability exposed by the Chinese gallium export restrictions reveals a long-term industrial decline in U.S. gallium refinement. In 1985, the United States was the first country to have a dedicated gallium mine. The Apex Mine in southwestern Utah closed after just three years because international gallium imports produced as a byproduct of aluminum production were cheaper. Since then, the United States has had no domestic capability to produce primary gallium. As of 2024, Indium Corporation operates the only high-purity gallium refinement facility in the United States, relying on imported semiconductor scraps. The Chinese government heavily subsidized aluminum production, allowing aluminum production to rise from 2.6 to 45 million tons between 2000 and 2025. As a byproduct, China’s gallium production capacity rose from 20 to 900 metric tons of output between 2000 and 2025.

    cont’d in response

    • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      Compounding this vulnerability, the U.S. National Defense Stockpile had no gallium reserves when China imposed its December 2024 ban. The Trump administration’s February 2026 launch of Project Vault — a $12 billion public-private initiative to stockpile critical minerals — is a step in the right direction, but even under optimistic projections, domestic production will only reach 10 to 15 percent of national consumption by 2030. China-based Innoscience, the largest 8-inch gallium nitride foundry in the world, leads in manufacturing capability. It also holds nearly 30 percent of the global gallium nitride power device market. This manufacturing capability is what matters in wartime. Silicon and gallium nitride are distinct materials, but analyzing the policy and decision-making surrounding the two reveals striking parallels. The United States pioneered the silicon transistor, then watched domestic companies offshore and cede manufacturing to foreign competitors through failed intelligence oversight and ill-advised technology transfers. This gave rise to the foundry model and paved the way for Taiwan to dominate silicon manufacturing. The gallium nitride story is following the same arc. The United States government pioneered gallium nitride through decades of government-funded research and maintains the majority of revenue in gallium nitride radio frequency devices, with U.S. companies dominating the defense and telecom segments. But the United States has never built the high-volume manufacturing infrastructure to match its design leadership. China has done so, through state-backed initiatives that mirror the government-driven industrial policies Japan and Taiwan used to dominate silicon. The gallium failure poses one critical distinction from the silicon blindside: In the latter case, silicon dominance was merely ceded to countries within the U.S. sphere of influence. A loss of gallium nitride excellence, however, hands victory to a direct strategic adversary.

      Building a Heterogeneous Integration Supply Chain

      The U.S. government must invest directly in national security-related technology companies and startups, with the taxpayer as the investor. The fabless mindset has led to an overfocus on designing chips and offshoring manufacturing. The United States needs an industrial revolution in heterogeneous integration: a standalone Department of Defense program authorized under Defense Production Act Title III, with four mandates. The Department of Defense’s newly established Economic Defense Unit — created to align defense strategy with economic competition and secure access to critical capabilities — could be the right vehicle to execute them.

      the unit they’re staffing entirely with private equity guys and bankers? that unit?

      it’s really funny jokerfied to keep reading article after article pointing out obvious failings of US industrial policy and seeing how not a single one suggests nationalization

      First, establish a framework of standalone, dual-use advanced packaging production facilities. Each facility must be government-funded, industry-operated,

      ah, of course, gotta be industry-operated!

      and located near defense customers and cleared workforces. They should not be co-located with university research fabs. Academic fabs have few security boundaries, with foreign nationals roaming freely through them. Moreover, the competing demands of basic research distract from production. Sites near the Boston Route 128 corridor, Huntsville, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Diego place production capabilities at the edge, adjacent to radar and electronic warfare customers who need it, supplementing facilities like MIT Lincoln Laboratory, rather than replacing them. These facilities must be dual-use: The defense mandate builds them, while revenue from wireless, power electronics, and data center market sustains them. The Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology consortium of the 1980s excluded smaller companies and stagnated when government funding ended. The National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program piloting facility sits today with no funding or operator. These facilities must carry milestone-based production targets, not research outputs. Second, establish a grant and equity program spanning the full heterogeneous integration supply chain, from gallium nitride wafer growth through advanced packaging. Startups will be the primary source of innovation in this space,

      jokerfied STARTUPS ARE GONNA FIX IT

      as is the case now in many defense technologies. The government must inject startups at every stage of the supply chain through direct grants and tax credits.

      okay so this is straight-up just a grifting plan, it’s probably fucking commissioned by some of the aforementioned private equity ghouls or something

      For production-scale facilities, the government should take equity stakes in critical companies, extending the precedent of the Trump administration’s $8.9 billion equity stake in Intel to companies for whom gallium is core. Qorvo and Wolfspeed are ideal candidates. The United States should view domestic champions not just as tickers on the stock market, but as key strategic proxies in a global competition for national security. Third, for the fabrication of gallium nitride wafers, a secure source of domestic gallium is critical. Project Vault is a foundation to build upon. Building on the Department of Energy’s TRACE-Ga initiative and the Defense Production Act Title III award to ElementUS Minerals, the government must expand funding for novel gallium extraction techniques developed by startups. Strategic partnerships must establish a “Trusted Gallium Road” initiative, a network of allied nations ensuring a constant gallium supply outside the Chinese sphere of influence. Fourth, the United States must think outside of the traditional semiconductor hubs. Advanced packaging does not require Silicon Valley types. It requires discipline, precision, and a workforce culture with deep industrial roots. The coal mining communities of Appalachia and the steelworkers of the Rust Belt, the manufacturing communities that built American industrial power but then watched it leave, are the same communities that can revitalize America again — this time in the cleanroom. A workforce development program modeled on the National Defense Education Act of 1958 would effectively create a talent pipeline in these communities. Government-backed advanced packaging facilities in communities uprooted due to workforce losses can supply the warfighter and ignite domestic stimulus.

      Conclusion

      The United States is at a strategic crossroads. The imperative is clear: Act now, or accept a slow and steady decline leading to semiconductor mediocrity. A loss of gallium nitride excellence means a win for China. The nation cannot afford to repeat the error it made by turning its back on the production of silicon chips. The moment has come for the United States to lead a revolution in chip manufacturing, starting with heterogeneous integration.


      the author?

      Pradyot Yadav is a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate fellow at MIT’s Microsystem Technology Laboratories, with a minor in public policy and security studies of emerging technologies, working on 3D chips for next-generation radar. He has worked at Raytheon, Qorvo,

      oh, Qorvo, the company he suggested above for government investment?

      and IBM, where he built the hardware this piece is about and other technologies core to national security. He has published several peer-reviewed publications with the IEEE. More about his work can be found at his website and LinkedIn.

    • TechnoAnomie [he/him, any]@hexbear.net
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      Headlines, man

      The United States Is Repeating Its Silicon Mistake with Gallium Nitride

      Proceeds to describe how that has already happened at the same time for the same reason