A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranians celebrating the beginning of the ceasefire under the framework of Iran’s 10 Points.


Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.

In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.

A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?

One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.

From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    48
    ·
    2 months ago

    https://archive.ph/XgY1o

    The Iran war took a toll on the Air Force’s Reaper fleet

    The service has lost at least 35 Reaper drones in combat and aircraft accidents over the last few years, according to news reports and Air Force investigations.

    more

    The MQ-9 Reaper, a staple for the U.S. since the turn of the 21st century, has remained a go-to asset for the military, even as recently as the war with Iran. But over the last few years, the U.S. has lost at least 35 Reaper drones — at least 16 were downed over Iran, 7 were shot by the Houthis in Yemen in Spring 2025, and 12 from other aircraft accidents recorded by the Air Force. Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Houston Cantwell, who spent two years overseeing a unit of drone pilots out of Creech Air Force Base in Nevada, and two years training future drone pilots at Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico, said the impact on the Air Force’s Reaper fleet is “a big deal.” “That is a significant percentage of the fleet, and there is no other aircraft that is positioned and ready to assume the responsibilities that the MQ-9 has across multiple combatant commands,” Cantwell said. “And right now, there’s no plan to backfill all these aircraft being shot down.”

    According to Air Force accident reports going back to 2021, 12 Reapers have been lost to non-combat accidents. Investigators have linked the causes of those accidents to mechanical failures — like one where an aircraft propeller came off mid-flight over the Mediterranean Sea in 2024 — and others to mistakes by pilots. General Atomics built 575 Reapers for the U.S. over the program’s lifetime, according to the company. The MQ-9A is flown by the Air Force, Marine Corps, Air National Guard, and the Department of Homeland Security. As of September 2024, the Air Force had 230 Reapers, the lion’s share of the U.S. military’s Reaper fleet. Air Force officials referred Task & Purpose questions about Reaper combat losses over Iran to U.S. Central Command, which declined to comment. “Each mission provides an opportunity to learn, and we incorporate that feedback continuously,” according to Mark Brinkley, a General Atomics spokesman. “All aircraft are vulnerable, such is the nature of flight, but Reaper opens up a series of options unlike anything else in the arsenal.” The dollar value of each Reaper is hard to pin down. A Congressional Research Service report estimated each aircraft at $28 million. An Air Force press release from 2020 announcing a contract with General Atomics estimated that each Reaper costs around $16 million, a price the company confirmed to Task & Purpose. Air Force accident reports cited Reaper losses costing between $13 million to $26 million, but many aircraft were valued at around $16 million. Based on those ranges, Reaper losses in recent combat have cost the U.S. anywhere from $300 million to just under $600 million.

    Risking drones rather than manned aircraft

    The MQ-9’s ability to fly continuously for over 24 hours and carry multiple payloads is unmatched by any other single system — two major capabilities that have kept the relatively large drones relevant amid the exploding market of small drones, Air Force reconnaissance experts told Task & Purpose. During operations against Iran, Reapers appeared to film U.S. strikes on Iranian aircraft, drones and missile launchers and may have even been tasked overhead during the recovery of a downed F-15E pilot. The Air Force has also signaled a continued interest in the platform, reactivating dedicated Reaper units in the U.S. and overseas. The U.S. still finds occasion to turn to the MQ-9s over human pilots because of the safety and cost considerations, said Cantwell, who noted that flying fighter jets costs between $5,000 to $40,000 an hour and is a “logistical nightmare” with air tankers and coordination. As the U.S. learned in early April after two F-15 fighter jets were shot down over Iran, rescue missions can also be incredibly risky and involve a lot of moving parts. President Donald Trump told reporters that the daring mission involved 68 fighters, 48 aerial tankers, 13 rescue aircraft, and four bombers. During the rescue operation, the U.S. lost two U.S. Special Operations MC-130J aircraft, each totaling over $100 million. The downed F-15E cost more than $31 million (based on 1998 prices). “Have these robot planes get shot down. I’d much rather have that than having, according to the president, 100 aircraft take off to go rescue one pilot. We can’t do that every day,” said Cantwell, now a senior fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. “Send in the MQ-9s every day, twice on Sunday.”

    Future of the fleet

    The aircraft lost in combat and accidents in recent years come after the Air Force ended production of the MQ-9A in 2020. Air Force officials cited shifting priorities for combatting near-peer adversaries, like Russia and China, which took General Atomics officials by surprise. The company has since developed a new version, the MQ-9Bs, nicknamed “SkyGuardians,” which cost roughly $30 million apiece and have upgrades for flying in all types of weather, detection and avoidance capabilities, anti-collision warnings, and can carry bigger payloads. MQ-9Bs have been purchased by Air Force Special Operations Command and the Department of Homeland Security, but “no individual military service has announced any production contracts for MQ-9Bs,” General Atomics officials said. General Atomics sells self-protection pods for the MQ-9, which the company purports can mitigate against surface-to-air threats and infrared and radio frequency threats. Cantwell said these options include flares to decoy infrared missiles, chaff or pieces of aluminum that deflect radar tracking, and electronic emitters to jam and deceive enemy radars. “Until now, no one has ever felt that it was worth the investment, so we’ll see if that changes after this conflict,” Cantwell said.