A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranians celebrating the beginning of the ceasefire under the framework of Iran’s 10 Points.


Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.

In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.

A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?

One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.

From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    16 days ago

    Dollar surges after partial results are released with Roberto Sánchez in the second round - Infobae

    The Peruvian market reacts to the possibility of the Socialist candidate reaching a second round, putting upward pressure on the value of the dollar.

    Article

    According to a report from the online exchange house Kambista, the dollar started the session on Tuesday, April 14, on an upward trend, reaching S/3.415 in the interbank market, amid the uncertainty generated by a changing electoral context (currently around S/3.3860, according to Bloomberg).

    “In this scenario, the sol stands apart from the behavior of other currencies in the region , which tend to strengthen against the dollar , in line with a downward DXY (-0.34%),” the report clarifies.

    What happened? While the dollar fell yesterday , the exchange rate opened lower that morning and rose during the session, causing a drop, but less than the opening price. Now, however, after the quick count results from Ipsos and Transparencia , the dollar appears to be on the rise.

    “The changes in the results as the official tally of ballots progresses, coupled with the IPSOS quick count published yesterday, have altered market expectations regarding which candidates will advance to the second round. This is putting upward pressure on the dollar, in an environment that remains highly volatile and subject to further movements as more information becomes available,” explained Fernando Ruiz, CEO of Kambista.

    Also, on the international stage, the US PPI stood at 0.5% month-on-month, below the forecast of 1.1% and the previous figure of 0.7%, suggesting less pressure for a tightening of monetary policy .

    “This cooling reduces the dollar’s ​​momentum globally, while in commodities, WTI crude oil fell 3.45% amid reports of a possible resumption of talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan. Meanwhile, gold declined 1.15% and copper 0.18%,” stated Iván Esquivel, Compliance Analyst at Kambista.

    Furthermore, at the local level, uncertainty surrounding the second round is sustaining demand for dollars, with investors avoiding taking risky positions while awaiting greater clarity.

    “Today, S/ 7,101.3 million in certificates of deposit and deposits with the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) are due , in addition to S/ 200 million in currency swaps. In this context, the Central Bank will have to evaluate the renewal of these operations to manage exchange rate volatility,” Esquivel concluded.

    However, as is known, according to the quick count results from Ipsos and Transparencia, Roberto Sánchez may be closer to the second round , although they highlight a virtual tie among four candidates. This showed a different result than that expected by the polling firm Datum, which gave Rafael López Aliaga a greater margin of victory.

    After midday, the ONPE results were tallying mostly rural votes, as Metropolitan Lima was nearing completion, with over 90% of the count finished. Keiko Fujimori was leading in some regions and Roberto Sánchez in others, while López Aliaga was only leading in Lima. Sánchez had been gaining ground in the polls, moving from behind Carlos Álvarez to fourth place behind Jorge Nieto. More than 20,000 ballots still needed to be processed.

    • FloridaBoi [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      16 days ago

      My lib cousin says Sanchez’ voting record in congress is significantly to the right of his rhetoric. My cousin is plugged into politics but is pro business generally. Thoughts on Sanchez?

      • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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        16 days ago

        Less Socially Conservative than Castillo, he seems to be in favor of same-sex marriage (he voted in favor of same-sex marriage in congress but some people were angry that he allied himself with Major Antauro, of the etnocarcerist movement who have homophobic views due to being part of the military) and some protections towards trans people (he seems to be close with trans activist Gahela Cari who is also part of his Party, but at the same time he has ties with conservative catholic leaders), he doesn’t seem to be in favor of abortion though

          • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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            16 days ago

            Liberal and Conservative Newspapers seem to have been attempting to accuse him of being a homophobe and at the same time accusing him of supporting same-sex marriage and trans people, they just want to pitch the Urban Left against the Rural Left.

            Sanchez seems to hold vaguely liberal views for a Peruvian boomer, his political coalition is composed of LGBTQ+ activists, social democrats, liberals, far-left politicians, democratic socialists and etnocarcerists, they all seem to agree that they can’t let Porky or Fujimori win, that Peru needs a new constution, that Native Americans need a lot more rights, and that they need to purge the Judiciary and Legislative from corrupt politician and judges.

            I guess if he wins, if the senate and congress somehow vote in favor of same-sex marriage, I can see him approving it. Idk if the Peruvian Supreme court wouldn’t veto it considering how bad they are.