As Awoo says, that situation was somewhat different. I think it’s clear that the US quietly backed down simply because they were put on the spot and knew they couldn’t handle the consequences of committing piracy against Russia while their war in Iran is going to shit.

If Trump was making a deal, he would not have let Russia take the appearance of successfully defying the US to save Cubans. He would only agree to a deal that allowed the US to retain an appearance of agency over the situation, even if they didn’t really have more agency than they do here. It’s seriously his most consistent foreign policy approach to try to big dog absolutely everyone, even shooting himself in the foot, fucking up relationships with allies, or causing Americans to die for it. It’s unfathomable that he would subvert that in a situation where it makes Russia – who does not actually control Trump, it must be remembered – look 10x better than they already would have in a Trump-approved mission while only making him look like an absolute paper tiger. And that’s really the difference, did he choose to look like a paper tiger when he isn’t one, or is he actually a paper tiger? I think the answer is plainly the latter.

While military logistics and things like that are absolutely not my wheelhouse so you should take it with a grain of salt, I think this was expertly timed by Russia because it’s in the middle of the US trying to mobilize forces to Iran, and the idea of creating a situation that Russia is surely prepared to immediately escalate (otherwise, why send the tanker?) while the US is mid-step with that mobilization effort was probably a very daunting idea.